Recap
SMU +1 at Houston – Miss.
Louisville +7 at NC State – Miss.
2021 12-16
2021 NFL 6-6 2018-21 NFL 93-73-4
2021 NCAAF 6-10 2018-21 NCAAF 89-88-4
Ohio State -15 at Nebraska o/u 66. Kickoff Saturday 12:00pm
The Play: Over 66
The road has been kind to Ohio State, as their road games are 3-0 to the over. Additionally, in BigTen conference play, tOSU is 4-1 to the over, with last weeks battle vs Penn State being an Under. There is now word that CJ Stroud hurt his shoulder in week 1 of the season and it makes sense why he sat vs Akron now. He’s been sharp these past few weeks and the shoulder being healthy helps.
Nebraska has a very weak secondary, they allow opponents to complete the ball 66% of the time, which is 109th in the Nation. They also don’t steal the ball on defense, as they have eight takeaways in nine games. To make up for their porous defense, they base their offense on explosive plays. They like to run the ball more often, but when throwing the rock they get 9.4 yards per pass which is #8 in the Nation!
I look for Ohio State to roll, and for Nebraska to get enough points for the over to hit.
Ohio State 42 Nebraska 28
Tulsa +22.5 at Cincinnati o/u 55. Kickoff Saturday 3:30pm
The Play: Cincinnati -22.5
Some of us were surprised to see Cincinnati ranked #6 in the initial CFB Playoff poll, where only the top 4 go to the playoffs. The team in front of them is #5 Ohio State. I bring this up because earlier in the season Ohio State defeated Tulsa 41-20. Cincinnati will have a hard time moving up into the top 4 but style points can help. They need to destroy Tulsa, 1) to look more impressive than Ohio State 2) because they haven’t covered a spread vs inferior opponents the last two weeks.
The over 55 was considered in this play but I greatly respect Cinci’s defense. I think this elite group has a secondary that the best of the best will struggle with. Tulsa on the other hand will play a bend-dont-break defense and give up its fair share of yards. Clamping down wont be an option vs Cinci as they will capitalize on 3rd down and the redzone. And lastly, what should help Cinci is Tulsa constantly shoots themselves in the foot. They are bottom 10 in penalties and penalty yards. All of this feels like a blowout is brewing.
Cincinnati 41 Tulsa 14
Raiders -3 at Giants o/u 46.5. Kickoff Sunday 1:00pm
The Play: Raiders -3
The Giants played Monday Night vs the Chiefs, and they played well, but when it mattered there were unneeded penalties. This is the story of the Giants season it feels like. The Raiders were off on a needed bye week, so they come in with a lot of extra rest. The Henry Ruggs incident cannot be left out, as we have no clue what the locker room was like this week in Vegas. We do know Derek Carr is an A+ leader, and the team responded well to the Gruden firing.
The Giants have had trouble covering a tight end it feels like forever. Darren Waller is poised for a breakout game, similar to his 16 target week 1 performance. Derek Carr is completing 67% of his passes, 10th in the NFL, and the Giants are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% which is 6th worst in the NFL. The Giants have a talented group on offense but it is time to really question their coaching. This team scores an abysmal 47% of the time in the redzone, which is 2nd worst in the NFL. Less than half of the time there is 20 yards or less to go for the Giants they don’t even get a field goal!! I know its a 10am game for Vegas, and there are distractions there, but off the bye, with a leader like Carr, and the Giants finding ways to lose, I’ll side with Vegas.
Raiders 26 Giants 20
Packers +7.5 at Chiefs o/u 48. Kickoff Sunday 4:25pm
The Play: Packers +7.5
Aaron Rodgers is ruled out, but 7.5 feels too much. I feel this game can be similar to the Chiefs last game against the Giants. The Packers will finally start Jordan Love, but I expect things to be light on him. This feels like a low scoring game where both Packers running backs get involved early and often. The Packers will control the clock, and roll out Love when necessary. The game will depend on if they can get touchdowns compared to settling for field goals. The Chiefs are #4 in yards per game, #1 on 3rd down conversion rate, but 19th in Red Zone scoring. This issue has gotten bigger over the years, and the lack of establishing a run has caught up to them. The Chiefs are a great team, but are too one-dimensional for my liking. The Chiefs need some physicality, and while they figure that out, I don’t see them blowing out teams.
Chiefs 30 Packers 24
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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