The Masters 2021

Kowals Korner Masters Breakdown

In 2021 I have 3 outright winners out of 11 tournaments! Brooks Koepka 50/1 at the Waste Management, the next week was Daniel Berger at 18/1 at Pebble, and a few weeks later was Justin Thomas 20/1 at the Players!

I’m gonna drop a few thoughts on some golfers, and then at the end I’ll tell you my gameplan. The buzz for the Masters is real, and here is a quick piece I put together for y’all. All odds are DraftKings $DKNG – there are better and worse numbers out there, ALWAYS lineshop if you can.

Dustin Johnson +900 – World’s #1 has the lowest odds, makes sense! Dustin has played in PGA’s last 10 tournaments, and has one top 10, an 8th at the Genisis. In his last five Masters he has 5 top 10s! You figure he has to be in the running for a top10, but this recent form is hard to back him at 9/1. When you talk Dustin you expect wins, not one top10 in the last ten tourneys. When he’s on he is unbeatable, but he hasnt been on since November’s Masters. A pass from me.

Bryson Dechambeau +1050 – Mr. Par 67 did not crack a 67 last November’s Masters. That should have been a learning experience to not disrespect Augusta. Bryson is HOT right now, but doesnt have a good track record here. I will be off of Bryson because he is too “hit or miss” and to only be +1050, I don’t want that missed cut risk. He has a good game, but when he misses with his driver, he misses toooo wide, and I’m not sure he can come back from big numbers.

Justin Thomas +1100 – JT is ball striking. He attacks Par 4s, is super consistent with his irons, and has a steady progression at Augusta. 22nd to 17th to 12to to 4th, is 1st next? JT has a high consideration from me. His head wasnt clear a few months ago. But after winning the Players, JT should have winning on his mind. To win at Augusta you have to capitalize on the par4s, and thats his specialty.

Jordan Spieth +1200 – It almost feels too perfect the way Spieth comes in to Augusta. Golfs golden child was on his way to be a GOAT. He broke down, when it was all in his head. Spieth has the course experience, he has the draw off the tee, the great approach and chipping, he knows the greens. But the pressure is on him now. There really wasnt any pressure the 5 top10s he has in the last 9. He was 60/1 3 months ago before this run, and is 12/1 now. I will be rooting for Spieth, but its too late to wager on him. He has a great shot, but the pressure is a hugeeee unknown/x-factor.

Jon Rahm +1200 – Rahm will be playing now that his wife gave birth to their baby boy. He is quietly playing great golf, racking up top10s, and has 3 Augusta top10s in a row. Rahm has 5 Major Championship potential, and we’ve been saying this for about 3 years now. Will he finally break through this week? I feel its an understandable distraction, but the man has to want to be home with his wife and newborn right? There is also the putter switch. Sure he is getting these top10s, but I feel Rahm should have a win or two this year. He does everything but sink medium length putts lately. If they fall he wins, but its hard to think they fall this week, when they havent the last 2 months.

Rory McIlroy +1700 – This is a high number for rory, who normally has a 12/1. Look, he even said its hard to see himself winning. The man is lost with his driver. I wish Rory the best, and i will be staying far away until he believes in himself.

Patrick Cantlay +2200 – My winner? Patrick Cantlay! He has only played in five tournaments in 2021, which i am not comfortable with, and while you want to be calm to win a Major, is he too calm? The man loves his wedge though. Augusta is grueling but he can chip and putt his way out of trouble. Patrick Cantlay is B+ in every aspect of golf, except I’d give him an A in scrambling. If Pat Cant attacks these par4s, avoids bogies, and plays his game, I see him putting on the Green Jacket. All it takes is one unlucky bounce in to the water, but I think with his experience and form, it’ll be his weekend.

Xander Schauffele +2500 – XMan had two top2s at the Farmers and Waste. He is still playing good golf, but i feel the Masters was 5 weeks too late for him. He will win a Major one day, but I feel sometimes he is too passive on a Sunday. He isnt sharp Around the Green lately, and I lean heavy on that stat. He is good enough for a top10, but I want all aspects clicking for a W.

Brooks Koepka +2800 – Without the Knee in jury Brooks woulda been my winner. He is being fun on twitter, but how can I back him if reports were 6/8 months to miss and its only been 3 weeks! If he wasnt healthy enough he wouldnt play, but I just cant take a 90% Brooks when these golfers are 100%. He is an assassin, he scrambles and fights like hell, he bombs the ball, but that knee Good Luck Brooks, just not placing a wager on you.

Collin Morikawa +3500 – Collin is a BEAST of a player. Wise beyond his years. The World’s number 4 is wayyyyy down the betting odds. I wish he has more experience here, and i wish he had more length. At augusta, the ball dies off the tee, you usually dont get that extra roll. So a shorter hitter like Collin i feel really pays a price. He won the PGA, he won at Concession, he is cool calm and collected, but Augusta feels a different animal and I’ll need to see a top10 before i believe it.

Daniel Berger +4000 – Daniel Berger is one of my favorite golfers. I dont know much about his personality, but he just seems so chill and goes with the flow. He seems like he would be hard to piss off. He got a nice win at Pebble a few months ago, and has been playing solid. I would not be surprised if its #BergerTime this weekend and him getting fitted for a green jacket. An elite ball striker, he isnt the sharpest with putting, and isnt the longest hitter. Berger could use 15 more yards, and could use a few less putts. He really capitalizes with his irons and somewhat flat swing. I like Berger a lot in a top20 bet.

Viktor Hovland +4000 – Hovland isnt ready if you ask me. The kid brings so much joy to the game, and i love that! But he also brings some cringeworthy chips at times. At least he keeps a great demenor, but he is due for a few bogies a round. Once Hovland gets better chipping, the ceiling is the moon!

SungJae Im +5000 – Now this is a golfer i really want at this price. SungJae Im JUST turned 23, and is already one of the worlds best. He got 2nd last year’s November Masters, where the greens were way more forgiving. His 10 made cut streak is really appealing to me, and screams consistency. Im’s backswing is caterpillar slow, but once aligned, he explodes through the ball. Everyone practically capitalizes on the Masters par5s, and i can really see Im getting eagle looks not just on Sunday, but throughout the weekend. I’m taking a flyer on Im!

Hideki Matsuayma +5500 – Hideki gets it done at Augusta. The man known for being one of the worst putters on tour, finds a way to get in the top 20 of the Masters. He has a 5th and a 7th the last two normal Masters, excluding 2020, being a slower November Masters. His game does feel off the last 2 months, and I love to back a guy in form. But, his track record calls for a good showing. I wouldnt hate a dabble, but my long shot is SungJae Im instead.

Scottie Scheffler +6000 – My prediction is that Scottie Scheffler wins a Masters in either 2022 or 2023. I love his game, and think he’s close for breaking through. He really strikes it well and gets himself in contention. The wins are lacking, the putter holds him back, and he needs more Augusta practice. If Scottie gets a t20 this week, I am definitely backing him in 2022.

Abraham Ancer +9000 – Abe Ancer has the game to make a run. I don’t think he’ll ever win a Major but I think his name will be bouncing around the top20 for years to come. At the prime age of 30, and coming off a 13th placed finish last November, Ancer is a live dog. He doesnt hit it that far with his driver, but he is a pure ball striker. He’ll find fairways, he’ll find greens, he’ll give himself a chance. With his lack of distance, the easy par 5s do become harder. Augusta might not be set up for him, but the man can play!

What do i look for when I’m dissecting the Masters? Well, they say to win you have to score well on the Par 5s, but everyone seems to score well there. To me it comes to the par4s. Get bridies on the 5s, stay afloat on the 3s, create separation on the 4s. No better way to do that than to strike your 2nd shot and give yourself a birdie look. Birdies are hard to come by, and the last thing you want is to dig a hole and bogey a few. This is why i look for golfers who are strong Around the Green, and have good scrambling stats. There is sooooo much that come in to play when capping the Masters, but those are the things I lean on the most. 7 out of the last 8 winners have been in the top 12 of the Official World Golf Rankings, and it’s rare when someone outside the top30 wins. The cream rises to the top, which is why it’s called the Masters.

Last year I picked Patrick Cantlay +2500 and Tony Finau +3500 and they finished 17th and 38th, so I dont have the code yet!

I am in a contest where you get to pick four golfers. You have to make the cut with all four, and the lowest combined score wins! The four that i have chosen, and the four i have my most confidence in is, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele. Between the four, like I’ve been saying, I trust their chips, I like their course experience, they score on par 4s, and all four are in good form.

I will also be playing two outrights. I love Patrick Cantlay this week, I will be playing his 22/1 number. I also like SungJae Im, last years runner up. I love his 50/1 number. I would like more experience at Augusta from him, and think a top10 is more expected, but at 50/1 I will take my chances!

BEST of luck to everyone, and let me know who you’re targeting!

Goose