2025 NCAA 10-14
2025 NFL 15-20
2018-2025 NCAA 128-134-6
2018-2025 NFL 174-153-11
Bears -1.5 v Packers – HIT!
Steelers +3 v Texans – Miss.
Saturday January 17
Broncos -1.5 v Bills o/u 45.5
The Pick: Bills +1.5
I’ve heard all year how dominant the Broncos defense is and I truly just don’t see it. I think they are a fine unit! A strong playoff worthy unit, but in the months of November and December, they played two playoff teams and gave up 26 to the Packers and 34 to the Jaguars. Additionally, it’ll be hard to utilize the Broncos best player on their team, Pat Surtain II. The Bills will have 3.5 receivers suit up on Saturday, Shakir, Cooks, Coleman, and they just activated Curtis Samuel. There’s no Justin Jefferson for Surtain to neutralize. It’s hard for me to say with a straight face that Josh Allen will put up his standard 28 points in the playoffs with those pass catching weapons, but he’s truly a God with wizard like abilities. Josh Allen has now gone 6 playoff games without an interception and has a 26 touchdown to 4 interception playoff ratio while also scoring 10 touchdowns himself. Every year the teams and opponents are different, and every year he leads this offense to 28 points.
I guess the question is, can the Broncos reach 28 points. Since JK Dobbins injury, RJ Harvey has 96 carries for 326 yards which is 3.4 yards per carry. We get it, the Bills can’t stop the run, but the Broncos rush offense is pretty gross. Bo Nix will have to produce and outside of his game script first drive in last year’s playoffs vs the Bills, he was 11 for 20 for 82 yards. That feels Broncos football, short short short, hit a deep ball or two, and constantly move the ball forward. The Bills secondary has been a strength as of late and they sure as heck confused Trevor Lawrence, showing different looks and morphing post snap.
Maybe my judgement is cloudy, but the Broncos defense is closer to very good than it is great, and I don’t trust Bo Nix. Give me the most impactful player in football over the more complete team. Bills continue their road run.
Seahawks -7 v Niners o/u 45.5
The Pick: Niners +7
These two met week 18 where the Niners offense looked dead as could be. Niners will be without the best tight end in football, George Kittle. Jake Tonges will replace him seamlessly on the receiving end, but Kittle’s blocking makes him Hall of Fame elite. But, the Niners will have their engine, left tackle Trent Williams. He’s darn near irreplaceable as they are 63-32 when he plays and 4-13 when he doesn’t. Let’s also note that WR1 Rickey Pearsall is practicing and looks to return after a two week absence. This Niners offense will look a lot more competent this go around.
I think I’m concerned with the Seahawks offense. QBR is a weird stat, but Sam Darnold has been below 50% in the last eight games, while the Seahawks have gone 7-1. Even that game against the Rams where they won 38-37 he was below 50%. In the 2H their first drive Ken Walker had a 50 yard touchdown run, after Shaheed’s punt return and following 3 and out, when the Seahawks had all the momentum, Kubiak dials two great 30 yard pass plays for a 60 yard 2 play touchdown drive, and they had 4 non scoring drive and 2 interceptions. OT looked good! I’ll give Darnold and the Seahawks that. But, this offense isn’t clicking. Darnold is a gun slinger but 10 interceptions in his last 10 games is alarming. Purdy loves a good turnover too but this will be his 8th playoff game compared to Darnold’s 2nd and Purdy feels a lot more trustworthy. The Seahawks are complete, Klint Kubiak is the new Kyle Shanahan when Shanny led the Falcons to a Super Bowl, but 7 points is a lot with an offense that isn’t humming. The Niners will need to protect Purdy, who was only sacked once vs a strong Eagles defense, and if they do I see a nail biter of a 60 minute game.
Sunday January 18
Patriots -3 v Texans o/u 40.5
The Pick: None
This is a hard one, and I might be putting personal bias in my lens. The Patriots have had a weaker DLine this season, but MAN they put on a clinic vs the Chargers. But who doesn’t? Are things clicking at the right time? Will Stroud be under duress the whole game? Man, this Texans offense is confusing. They can dial up amazing shot plays, but that really seems about it. Christian Kirk had a hellova game, but if you just look at the whole season, why should I expect another 100 burger from him. Nico Collins is an elite receiver who’s looking doubtful to play but it’s Thursday when I’m writing and posting and he’s a huge reason why I have no pick. If he doesn’t play it’s “Patriots or bust.”
Drake Maye has great vision but man feels every time the ball is pushed 15+ yards down field he finds someone WIDE open. Like there’s never contested throws with him. I’m still trying to figure it all out. Is it his vision, is it play design, is it the defenses? This Texans defense is for real for real. They are one of the more complete unit’s we’ve seen in the last 10 years. A completely new beast from what Maye and the Pats have seen. But like, will Maye get touched? Will these lower named receivers outside of Diggs still be completely wide open? Or will Maye have to and be able to hit tight windows. Will Maye be able to use his legs as a weapon, or will he have to use them to avoid pressure the whole game? The Texans defense is so good, but what good is it if the offense has been so poor. Or will Stroud, a domed QB, who’s a Cali kid, be able to finally string together drives and stack points?
Just too many variables for me. I lean Patriots but greatly respect this Texans defense. But, if there’s no Nico Collins, how in the world will the Texans get points?
Rams -3.5 at Bears o/u 50.5
The Pick: Bears +3.5
This was my toughest pick of the three official picks, because I’m rooting for the Rams but I’ll take the field goal and the home team.
I think Chicago’s offense will give the reeling Rams defense troubles. The Rams have given up 27.8 points a game over their last seven, while Chicago has a larger sample size of 27.6 points over their last eleven! In these shaky 7 games the Rams are 4-3 and have let quarterbacks throw for 14 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Caleb Williams has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL, but Chicago has the fewest turnovers this season. Combine that with the most takeaways this season and one could feel good about Chicago winning the turnover battle.
I think Ben Johnson is a good leader and great play caller, but as long as he’s the coach there’s a chance he can call the Bears OUT of a game. But, hopefully the Wild Card win vs the Packers settled him. Misdirection is fun, and I know I’m being a homer, but they simply have to give Monangai the rock on these short yardage plays. I think it’ll be important to continue to get a healthy dose of D’Andre Swift to keep the Rams pass rush on their toes. We are watching two stars be born in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden over the last few weeks, the whole Bears offense is lethal. Stafford is the MVP, Puka Nacua is the best receivers in football, and the Rams over 20 weeks feel like the best team in football. BUT, if we look at it basically since December 1, this isn’t the same Rams, and the Bears have grown. Bear Down!
Monday January 19
Indiana -8.5 v Miami o/u 47.5
The Pick: None
I just wrote my Korner and was all excited to send it out but then I remembered the National Championship is this Monday. There are 10000 players that entered the transfer portal and marquee games like the Rose Bowl was 2.5 weeks ago. 300+ programs have actively started their off-season and yet we have no champion. Alright that’s enough complaining on what a great thing college minor league football has turned into. I guess I should talk about the game.
Indiana has dominated the last few teams they’ve played with their physicality. Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon, all were in a mismatch especially on the lines. If there is one team that could match Indiana on the O and D line it’s Miami. Miami’s O is what it is. Decent run game, competent quarterback, a bubble screen here and there, but they make plays when needed. Malachi Toney could be used more, but when the ball is in his hands Miami is electric. All that being said, could Miami score enough to keep it close with Indiana? Mendoza won’t make hero plays and “wow” you, but he really limits mistakes. In a 60 minute game anything can happen, but I feel a lot more confident in Mendoza taking care of the ball compared to Carson Beck. Miami can play the underdog card, they will also be in their home stadium, but the talent, outside of the line of scrimmage, favors Indiana in almost all positions. I feel pretty confident in Indiana winning (wow so bold they are only -340 on the ML) but 8.5 feels a lot. I hope Miami covers because then it’ll probably be a great 60 minute game! But Indiana has been a buzz saw and probably handles business semi easily. Idk.
Power Rankings
- Seahawks
- Bills
- Rams
- Broncos
- Niners
- Patriots
- Bears
- Texans
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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