2025 NCAA 10-14
2025 NFL 14-19
2018-2025 NCAA 128-134-6
2018-2025 NFL 173-152-11
Miami +9.5 v Ohio State – HIT
Oregon -2.5 v Texas Tech – HIT!
Georgia -6.5 v Ole Miss – Miss.
Panthers +3 at Bucs – HIT!
Titans +13.5 at Jaguars – Miss.
Steelers +3.5 v Ravens – HIT!
Let’s have some fun with it! I’ll make it clear what my “official picks” are but I’ll write at least a little blurb on each game. Goose got some opinions, and I ain’t afraid to share!
Thursday January 8
Miami -3.5 v Ole Miss o/u 52.5
Official Pick: None.
I’ve faded Ole Miss the last two games, first doubting their coaching, second time complementing Kirby Smart, but Peter Golding and co keep delivering! We did back Miami in their two playoff wins as well. I just feel it’s best to lay off with my two trends, I don’t want to get I guess biased or tunnel vision.
Miami’s defense is for real. Their DLine has game wreckers and things have been falling into line with that pressure. This will be the best offense they play in the playoffs. Trinidad Chambliss is rolling and creating draft stock. Carson Beck has been fine, but it’s the Ole Miss QB I trust more. I haven’t watched a lot of Miami football, but their linebackers seem like excellent run stoppers and subpar pass defenders. I think Ole Miss can exploit that on the back of their red hot quarterback. The last time Ole Miss scored below 30 points was all the way back on October 11th in their 24-21 win v Wazzu. Can Miami get into this kind of shootout? Miami’s offense has looked stellar at times, but in their two playoff games their offense has scored 3 touchdowns.
I’ll be rooting for Miami, shout out Mo Toure, and heck the SEC, but the brain says I do not want to wager American currency against this Ole Miss offense.
Friday January 9
Indiana -3.5 v Oregon o/u 47.5
Official Pick: None
I got Oregon as my National Champion, but I do not want to bet against Indiana on the official record. Seeing Oregon come to Rutgers and score at will really opened my eyes. Their QB is dynamic, their run game is elite, their TE is a future NFL star, and their OLineman are mammoth. But Indiana is just different, from their coach, to their quarterbacks demeanor, to their whole story.
Let’s look back at the first time these two played in October. The trust is, Indiana dominated this game. They held Oregon to 267 yards, Indiana had the pick-six but it was Oregon with 2 turnovers, Indiana won the first down battle 23-14, and Oregon had to convert 3 of 4 4th down attempts to keep pace. Lastly, both teams had emotional wins the game before BUT both teams were coming off of a bye week.
Where Oregon will have to win this game and where they have grown is their front 7. They need to be more physical than they were months ago, and Teitum Tuioti has provided that nastiness getting 7 of his 9.5 sacks post Indiana loss. If I had to pick one Indiana weakness, it’s their OLine. We highlighted the rise of Oregon’s defense last week in their matchup vs Texas Tech. Mendoza has a poise that can’t be shaken, but they have to get after him and speed up his process. Oregon hasn’t valued the football as much as I’d like, but the key to this week’s game is to win that turnover battle and let their talent work on offense.
Saturday January 10
Rams -10.5 at Panthers o/u 46.5
Official Pick: None.
Will the Rams win? Realistic answer is probably. By double digits? Carolina is a playoff team and at home, oh and they won the first matchup! Sure, Matthew Stafford is way more talented than Bryce Young, but the Panthers just have these games where it clicks. Los Angeles has to come East Coast and win this game by 11+ after 3 weeks of below par football. For about half of the season I’ve been on a Rams Super Bowl bandwagon, but the spread gives me doubts.
The Panthers are 6-1 if they score 21+ points this season. Their defense is pure and their line gets after quarterbacks. The Panthers picked off Stafford and Purdy 5 times in a 2 week stretch, and if we get this defense then we could have a game. Stafford is on another level, but the whole operation has helped him reach this level, so the key for the Rams will be OLine protection. They can play the same exact game as the first one and just need to make sure Stafford is protected. The Panthers put up 31 points while being 0/1 in the redzone. This feels somewhat fluky. The first game total was 44.5, they scored 59, this weeks total is 46.5, and I see an ugly grind, Rams late, but no bets all around. Rams 27-17.
Bears -1.5 v Packers o/u 45.5
Official Pick: Bears +1.5
I’m taking the Bears in Round 3! Rounds 1 and 2 were classics, with the teams splitting them, but the Packers come in banged up, and while last week was treated like a bye, I don’t think they’ll heal in time.
The Packers defense is a concern here. They had a real nice stretch in the middle of the season playing lower end offenses, but are now on a 4 game skid including giving up 34 to the Broncos and 41 to Snoop Huntley’s Ravens. Caleb Williams has faired well only throwing 1 interception v the Packers, which was the last play of game 1, in a force-shot running the same game winner as 2 weeks prior. 3 of Chicago’s last 7 games they’ve exploded for 30+ points, and that comes from their balance. With Caleb taking care of the ball, if their run game can continue to average 4.96 yards a carry like they are vs this weaker Packers front, then their offense should be too much for Green Bay to handle. The rise of Luther Burder and Colston Loveland are well noticed, and the Bears officially have “weapons for days” like Ben Johnson’s Lions have.
There’s chatter that Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat. The Packers went all-in with the Micah Parsons trade, but are 38-32-1 in the last four seasons. They’ve been good, smacked the Cowboys 2 years ago in the playoffs, but they haven’t taken that next step. The Bears have struggled with the Packers in the past, but this is a new Bears team who’s just been flat out better than the Packers this season. Bear Down! Bears 24-20.
Sunday January 11
Bills -1.5 at Jaguars o/u 51.5
Official Pick: None
Truthfully, it would be cooler to say “I’ve shared the line in High School with a Super Bowl Champ, than to say “my team (the Jaguars) won Super Bowl 60.”
I have high confidence in the Jaguars this weekend. They are 9-1 post-bye with their 1 loss v Davis Mills and the Texans, but the Jags were up 29-10 to start the 4th. They are averaging a whopping 32.8 points a game, and have won in blowouts and twice in overtime. The Jaguars are the BEST team in the AFC the second half of the season, with an innovative offense and a complex defensive system. All that being said, Josh Allen is a God. He is a wizard with the football, and I am terrified of him. He is the most impactful player in the sport and shines his brightest in January.
Statistically the Jaguars have a great run offense. When I watch them, it doesn’t feel like it. Their interior of the OLine is on the weaker end, and they threw the ball so much more vs the Titans to avoid Jeffery Simmons. The Bills don’t have a Jeffery Simmons but I am not feeling a great advantage there. For as flawed as the Bills defense is, their corners have risen to the occasion when they needed to. Not ground breaking news, but the Quarterbacks will determine this game. The version of Trevor Lawrence we are seeing is an elite player, and he will need to take care of the ball, which wasn’t the case pre-Coen. He and the offense cannot give Josh Allen extra possessions. The Bills have stuttered on offense at times this year. The fanbase is not thrilled with Joe Brady’s play calling, but this might be the best way to attack Jacksonville’s defense. The Bills will pound the rock and throw their fair share of bubble screens. In the Jax shell defense, these can get the 4/7 yards asked and rarely get blown up. And when its time to make a play, Josh Allen has shown he makes those plays.
The Jaguars are flat out the more complete team, led by a fierce defense and and an offense that is surging. But, Allen is a God. The Bills run game rocks, and the Bills tackles get the show rolling. Whoever wins this game will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I wish these two did not matchup round 1.
Oh and shout out January 2018 Jags v Bills WCW where there was 17 punts! Think there will be a few less of those this Sunday …
Eagles -4.5 v Niners o/u 44.5
Official Pick: None. So close taking Eagles -4.5
Way back in August I put in a Niners Bills Super Bowl lay, and it couldn’t feel more dead. While both teams could go out this weekend, it’s the Niners that almost feel helpless due to injury.
Philly has had a hard time running the ball this season, but the Niners defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed. Teams are gashing them, and Philly feels like they are coming into form at the perfect time. While it felt that the Bills played a stronger game 2 weeks ago, it was a big win for Philly and I think they have their formula. Conservative and on the backs of their defense. Maybe if they matchup with a stronger aerial offense they can get got, but even on offense the Niners feel in the mud. Christian McCaffrey compiled all world stats this season but he averaged 3.9 yards per carry including 2.9 yards last week with no Trent Williams. Kittle should be back, but the vibes are no Trent Williams no Ricky Pearsall. So no all world LT and no WR 1. While I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners won, I could really see this one getting a little out of hand with Philly putting a chokehold early and staying constantly up double digits.
This feels like a 24-14 Eagles, but for my respect for the Niners coaching, distain for this Eagles offense, and the talent on the field, I’ll just sit this one out.
Patriots -3.5 v Chargers o/u 46.5
Official Pick: None.
It’s hard to describe, but why does this one feel so obvious yet so complicated..? The Chargers limped into the playoffs, have to travel East, and as a domed team have to go to 30/35 degree weather. The Chargers also are missing two extremely talented offensive tackles. The Patriots won 14 games and have a top 2 MVP candidate in Drake Maye.
I’ll start with the Chargers OLine vs the Patriots DLine. The Pats definitely have good players, edges Landry and Chaisson have combined for 16 sacks, and interior rusher Milton Williams is a borderline star. It’s the Chargers LT spot that is beyond a disaster, and the Patriots might not fully be able to exploit this. As a whole the Chargers OLine flat out sucks, but this isn’t the Texans DLine, this is a solid, sound, Patriots DLine. That goes for their back end also, it won’t put fear in Herbert, it won’t allow Herbert to throw for 400. And these are the type of defenses that great quarterbacks do their job against.
Drake Maye is so darn efficient but DC Jesse Minter, Safety Derwin James, and co confuse offenses. The Patriots run a great intermediate crossing offense, and the middle back end of the Chargers defense excels at covering this. Derwin James and Tony Jefferson have forced 8 turnovers this season! All this sounds great, but the Patriots are so darn sound. The Pats are top6 in least penalties, and top6 in time of possession. They control games, take their time on O, keep they chains moving being top6 in 3rd down conversions. This makes opposing quarterbacks press, but then again even-keeled Herbert isn’t one to press. Ugh. Maybe it’s the schedule. Maybe it’s the Pats exceeding expectations. Over 18 weeks there shouldn’t be much reason to doubt them. But the Chargers are live this weekend me thinks.
Monday January 12
Texans -3 at Steelers o/u 39.5
Official Pick: Steelers +3
I get the love for the Texans. They won 9 in a row and have the most punishing defense in the NFL! But boy oh boy does this feel like it’s lining up perfectly for Tomlin to be Tomlin and get his team to rally as a home underdog.
Over the years it’s felt that the Steelers didn’t have enough offense to compete vs this high end teams. They’d fall in a hole and ask like Mason Rudolph to claw them out. A few factors are different this time around. The Texans defense ROCKS as I mentioned, but their offense is probably bottom 3 in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is OLD but we all saw last week he still commands the huddle and makes plays when needed. That was a gutsy performance vs the Ravens and the Steelers didn’t have DK Metcalf. These old farts stepped up though, and this action could propel the Steelers to be live. Marquez Valdez Scantling, Adam Thielen, Scotty Miller, Calvin Austin – these 4 will have to make A play or two, which is wild, but they all have filled their role and have. they bring back DK, Freiermuth has been solid, and the two headed monster at RB gets all this rolling! Aaron Rodgers is a former wizard and I don’t think he’ll light the world on fire, but I don’t think the Texans offense will pull away. You get in a late 4th quarter, you tell me who you trust more, a domed CJ Stroud who will be travelling outside, or Aaron Rodgers in his 22nd career playoff game.
In what feels like the whole world is on the Texans, give me the Steelers. Maybe I’m trying to big brain this one, but I just trust the mind of Rodgers to get 17ish and I have my doubts the Texans can get 14. The Steelers defense is no slouch either and they might be on the older end but they are physical, and that’s what I’ll want under the lights, outside in January.
Recap:
Bears -1.5 v Packers
Steelers +3 v Texans
Power Rankings
- Seahawks
- Rams
- Broncos
- Jaguars
- Patriots
- Eagles
- Niners
- Bills
- Texans
- Bears
- Steelers
- Packers
- Chargers
- Panthers
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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