Chapter Eighteen

2025 NCAA 8-13 
2025 NFL 12-18
2018-2025 NCAA 126-133-6
2018-2025 NFL 171-151-11

Cal +1.5 v Hawaii – Miss

Miami +9.5 v Ohio State

I can’t believe I’m picking Miami, but here we are. Ohio State played 4 ranked teams. 2 of those, beat Texas 14-7 lost to Indiana 13-10. The other two were ranked but flawed. Beat Illinois 34-16 and Michigan 27-9. All in all, I see Miami as better than Michigan, on par with Texas. Will there also be a rust factor with Ohio State? Last year all teams with a bye lost. Miami has a killer DLine and if there is one area of concern for Ohio State its that I feel their OLine could be more physical. Hence putting up 14 v Texas and 10 v Indiana. Points will be a premium, and I expect Beck to perform better. Lets not forget that wind Beck and Miami faced at A&M, the kickers were having a nightmare. Look for a slugfest similar to the Big Ten Championship, just ultimately I’m not sure Beck can make the key throws like Mendoza. Ohio State by a touchdown, but single digits. 

Oregon -2.5 v Texas Tech

Little worried here because I think this might be my most confident college football play of the year. Texas Tech has had a great season, a STRONG defensive front, but Oregon is rounding into form and I think they learned a lot from their loss to Indiana. Dante Moore’s last 4 games has him looking like a future #1 overall pick and his pass catchers are getting healthy at the right time. I don’t want to poopoo on Texas Tech’s schedule but they played one tier1 QB in Arizona State’s Sam Levitt and Zona State put up 26 on them. Where Oregon has really grown is the defensive side of the ball. Last two regular season games they faced USC and Washington, two solid QBs, and picked them off twice each. They also held JMU to two field goals in the 1st half in their opening playoff game before easing off a bit. Oregon feels like they are peaking at the right time, and are my current National Champion pick.

Georgia -6.5 v Ole Miss

If Oregon -2.5 is my most confident pick of the college football year, than unfortunately Georgia -6.5 is my second most confident pick … Ole Miss was giving it to Georgia a few months ago, scoring touchdowns on their first 5 drives going up 35-26 before losing 43-35. This pick is a nod of respect to Kirby Smart. Georgia will be coached up well enough to not give up 35 points in 5 drives. Kirby is an elite elite coach, and we’ve seen the growth of the team as the year went on. Just look at the two Alabama games. Georgia followed up their 24-21 loss to a 28-7 win in their Bama rematch. What works one game won’t the next, what works first half, won’t work the next. That’s where Ole Miss will miss Lane Kiffin, the halftime adjustments. Georgia romps em.

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I kind of feel Bama is live vs Indiana. Bama can’t run the ball and Indiana is stout vs the run, so likeeee Bama will just have to air it out. Cignetti might be a superstar head coach, but DeBour has playoff experience, going to the final with Washington. 

Worried how much I love Oregon and Georgia. Just feels too easy like they’ll win by 14+. Never a good sign! 

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WOW!! We are at Week 18, it went so fast. Sure, there are some “meaningless games,” but aren’t all games … meaningless…? #deep There’s a few spots I got my eye on and I’m hoping to get into the postseason hot! #FlockUp never #FadeTheKorner

Panthers +3 at Bucs

The best unit in this game is the Panthers defense who picked off Baker Mayfield a few weeks ago. Baker was on a hellova run, and I still view him as a playoff starting quarterback, but he has 8 interceptions in 7 games, and only one of those games he did not throw an interception. The Panthers are widely inconsistent on offense, but the Bucs weak secondary is a good matchup for them. Get had 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown vs them a few weeks ago and after last weeks disaster I expect them to get back on track. The Bucs looked like NFC contenders first half of the season but are on a 1-7 skid and in a game they NEED to win for playoff hopes I just have a hard time believing they can flip this switch. The Panthers DLine will speed up Baker and the emergence of corner Jaycee Horn held Mike Evans to 31 yards on 9 targets the other week. Besides the explosion v the Falcons, Mike Evans is averaging just 23.75 yards a game since returning to injury and him and Baker are just not on the same page. I trust the Panthers more on Saturday.

Titans +13.5 at Jaguars

Feel like I’ve been fading / writing about the Jags too much. I’ll keep this one short and sweet. The Titans are 2-2 in December averaging 26.75 points a game. They are playing competent to good football and have nothing to lose. ALL the pressure is on the Jaguars to win the division. One team is playing free, one will be pressing. I really hope the Jags win, but this feels like a nail biter.

Steelers +3.5 v Ravens

I want to start by saying if the Ravens win Sunday night they are just as live to win the AFC as any other team. I like the Steelers in this spot though. Lamar Jackson is a superstar who has battled injury all season, it just doesn’t feel his year. He is just so darn dynamic when he’s a dual threat quarterback, and his legs have been too banged up this season. I don’t want to second guess my pick, but time and time again the Ravens coaching staff took Lamar’s legs away from himself in these playoff games. Mike Tomlinson wins games as an underdog. He’s an excellent coach and will have his defense ready to go, including TJ Watt. If Lamar isn’t being dynamic, then it really will come down to Derrick Henry. Here is where I trust the Steelers defense. The Steelers give up only 4.2 yards per carry and Derrick Henry only had 3.8 yards per carry a few weeks ago v the Steelers. That game DK Metcalf had 7 catches for 148 yards, but the Steelers running backs had 9 catches and scored two touchdowns. They will have to rely on them v this faulty Ravens D and I see Aaron Rodgers having one more crack at the Playoffs.

Power Rankings

1. Seahawks (2)  
2. Niners (4)
3. Patriots (8) 
4. Jaguars (5) 
5. Eagles (11)
6. Texans (6)
7. Broncos (9) 
8. Rams (3) 
9. Bills (1) 
10. Bears (10) 
11.  Ravens (16)
12.  Chargers (7)
13.  Steelers (12)
14.  Vikings (18)
15.  Packers (13)
16.  Saints (20)
17.  Bengals (19)
18.  Panthers (14)
19. Falcons (24)
20.  Lions (15) 
21.  Bucs (17)
22.  Cowboys (22) 
23.  Dolphins (23) 
24.  Titans (26)
25. Colts (21)
26. Chiefs (25)
27. Browns (28)
28. Commanders (27)
29. Giants (32)  
30. Cardinals (30) 
31. Jets (29) 
32. Raiders (31) 

Thank you,
Goose