Chapter Three

2025 NCAA 0-2
2025 NFL 2-1
2018-2025 NCAA 117-122-6
2018-2025 NFL 160-133-11

Niners -3.5 – HIT!
Raiders +3.5 – Miss.

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Rutgers takes on Iowa this Friday night in our next edition of Friday Knight Lights. Iowa has been a kryptonite for Rutgers, but this year’s Rutgers and this year’s Iowa are very different teams. Rutgers has had little success running the football, and their defense is looking soft as can be. It’s their pass attack that is winning them games. When in the world was this the case! Iowa has a quarterback as well and their defense is far from soft, but it does not seem like a signature Iowa defense. I do think Rutgers can score on this Iowa team, but a key question mark will be if Ian Strong will play. The Rutgers wide receiver room is deep, but Strong is the leader. If he plays I have Rutgers scoring 4 touchdowns. If he doesn’t I’ll go with 3 because when the chains need to be moved, it’s Strong who delivers. I think they will need the 4th to win because outside of the Iowa State game Iowa is getting 5+ touchdowns. Iowa State’s defense is stronger than ours, but our defense is stronger than UMass and Albany’s. Who will be able to convert in the red zone feels will be the key factor. The 28-24 will be the final, I just hope it’s Rutgers getting the touchdowns and not having to settle for a field goal.

Miami Ohio +2.5 v UNLV

3-0 UNLV at 0-2 Miami Ohio! Talk about an OOC schedule for M-OH they went to Wisky, to Rutgers, and now hosting an upstart UNLV. I like this spot for multiple reasons and I will start with rest. Miami Ohio played two Big Ten teams and is now off a bye week where their bodies got rejuvenated. Last game vs Rutgers they put up 368 yards and 7th year QB, 4th year starter, Dequan Finn, looks like he’s picking up his stride. He’s more effective with his legs than his arm but the arm is looking live. UNLV’s defense will make quarterbacks look like stars and I expect Finn to be a name of the weekend. Idaho State’s QB threw for 380, and Nico ImALeavin threw for 250 and 60 rush yards. I expect a hungry M-Oh team to come out blazing vs this weak defense. UNLV is undisciplined, they average 111 penalty yards a game, and this will help Miami move the chains. UCLA is a train wreck, Idaho State and Sam Houston stink, and the overachieving UNLV team will have their toughest game to date.

Nebraska +1.5 v Michigan

Since the start of last season, Nebraska is top5 in the nation in time of possession. They are a grind to face. Michigan is a physical team themselves but they replaced some chain movers this offseason. They have a new RB room and top10 pick TE Colston Loveland moved on. Bryce Underwood seems to have the tools to be an NFL QB, but the true freshman played one p4 program at Oklahoma and went 9-24 for no touchdowns. When the Nebraska program has juice, they have JUICE, and their atmosphere rivals Penn State’s White Out. I expect Nebraska to value their possessions, and frustrated Michigan who could use a few more pass catchers to help the young Underwood. Dylan Raiola might be a little strange mimicking Patrick Mahomes to a t, but he is playing great ball. He’s valuing the ball lately and looks to have taken that step from true Freshman to a Sophomore leader. This Michigan team is a year away from National Championship hopes, but Saturday Nebraska gets Rhule’s first signature win.

Cowboys -1.5 at Bears

Road favorites are hard to pick, but the Cowboys just feel right in this spot. Outside of Caleb Williams first drive week 1, the Bears have looked outclassed. Their defense let JJ McCarthy walk over them in the 4th quarter comeback. The Lions put up FIFTY TWO, after being held to 13 against the Packers. Caleb Williams looks in his head, hesitant to make a mistake and push the ball, when he has all the arm talent in the world. And lastly, their run game looks decent but they are not committed to pounding the rock. But, running the ball on the Cowboys isn’t really how to exploit them now a days with the big addition of Kenny Clark. The Cowboys lack edge presence but Caleb Williams has seemed spastic when his first read has been covered. I don’t think the Bears can keep up with the Cowboys offense. If Bears let JJ shred them late, and Goff do whatever he wants, then Dak should realistically be able to put up 35. The Cowboys are last year’s Bengals, a great QB, two great WRs, and a soft defense. But, when the Bears O is in transition, I’ll back the Cowboys bad defense.

Chargers -2.5 v Broncos

I came into the season thinking the Broncos were just an overrated group. Time will tell if I was right or if this was a freezing cold take. I don’t trust the Broncos juggernaut defense from last year. They got off the hook week 1 hosting a rookie Cam Ward, but they gave up 29 to Daniel Jones and the Colts. I expect very similar numbers out of a rolling Chargers team led by Justin Herbert. After two weeks on the road, Herbert gets to play in the domed Los Angeles. Herber has lost a fumble, but through two games that’s the Chargers only turnover. That is Jim Harbaugh football! Jim Harbaugh football is also to pound the rock. The Chargers just played two great run defenses in Kansas City and Las Vegas. Jonathan Taylor is an elite running back, but he just gashed the Broncos for 162. The Broncos can defend the pass, but I think they are more speed than physicality. Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris have yet to pop but those are two physical backs. With them laying the wood, and Herbert stepping into a top7 Quarterback, I expect the Chargers to get 25+. Bo Nix has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and it looks like he is trending to a sophomore slump. The year of tape on him, and him being 0-2 v the Chargers has me looking to back them and start the year 3-0 in the division.

Power Rankings

The number to the right of the team is where they were ranked last week.

1. Packers (3)
2. Bills (1)
3. Eagles (2)
4. Ravens (4)
5. Chargers (5)
6. Bucs (9)
7. Rams (10)
8. Lions (12)
9. Niners (8)
10. Chiefs (6)
11. Colts (19)
12. Commanders (9)
13. Cardinals (20)
14. Bengals (11)
15. Broncos (15)
16. Seahawks (21)
17. Cowboys (15)
18. Falcons (24)
19. Steelers (18)
20. Vikings (16)
21. Texans (22)
22. Jaguars (14)
23. Patriots (26)
24. Raiders (17)
25. Bears (23)
26. Giants (28)
27. Saints (30)
28. Titans (29)
29. Jets (25)
30. Dolphins (31)
31. Browns (27)
32. Panthers (32)

Thank you,
Goose