SHEEEEEEEEEEESH! In my Elite Eight era, year 8! We’re here for my annual Fantasy Football run down. It wasn’t the prettiest year last year for my teams. I overplayed my hand joining SIX leagues! For some, that’s rookie numbers, but it was a little overwhelming for myself. Wooooooo! Jahmyr Gibbs scored a touchdown! Oh wait, I’m also facing him #darn.
In my two Butch Kowal fantasy leagues my father and I missed playoffs. I made some big errors in drafting Marvin Harrison Jr, Calvin Ridley, and Rhamondre Stevenson in one league, and injuries really affected us in the other. In my home friends league it’s now SIX straight top three finishes, but still only one championship with me finishing third this year. In my other three leagues I made the playoffs! But … I had zero playoff wins in them. All in all, not a ringing endorsement, huh? I did not draft enough game changers to separate myself from my opponents and had a whole bunch of mid on my squads. I’ll spin it as last year was unacceptable.
“I just want to say one thing to the fans and everybody in Gator Nation. I’m sorry. Extremely sorry. We were hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal. It’s something Florida’s never done here. But I promise you one thing: a lot of good will come out of this. You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of this season, and you’ll never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of this season. You’ll never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season. God bless.”
-Tim Tebow
I’m looking defeat in the eye and telling him I will never see you again. We will get back to our winning ways. We will find the undervalued and beat ADP. We will know who to avoid and not waste picks on underperformers. We will win.
I bounce back and forth if I want to give my own rankings or if I want to base this article off of ESPN’s PPR rankings and giving people a road map. When you’re on the clock time is ticking and I think it’ll be best if I base it off of what many of you will be seeing on draft day.
QUARTERBACKS
There’s a “Big 4.5” this year and I’m in on them at cost. Third round Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels all give you a gamechanger who can win weeks single-handedly. Their rushing ability really sets them apart as these three averaged 775 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns last year. Add in their 3750 passing 30 touchdown potential and you’ll constantly outscore your opponent at the QB position. 3/4th round Jalen Hurts doesn’t have the pass volume which is why you get a round discount but the tush push and his 13 rushing touchdowns on average the last four seasons lives on. Joe Burrow in the fourth can give you that set-it-and-forget-it edge as well. For me to be in on Burrow I’d need 6points per passing touchdown vs 4points which some leagues do. His three healthy seasons are giving us approximately 4700 yards and 37 passing touchdowns and there’s a potential for a monster stack if you draft Chase or Higgins.
I don’t think you need to come into a draft and say “I need a Big 4.5 QB” or “I need to wait on QB.” The draft will always dictate it. But, if you do wait or miss out, there’s plenty of depth in the position. 5th round Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield feel in a weird position to draft. You aren’t getting the volume of Burrow and aren’t getting the rushing upside of the other four. You are missing out on a strong RB/WR and odds are they perform closer to what QB10 will score and not what QB3 will score. Brock Purdy and his whole team las year struggled and he finished QB 14. He was QB 6 two years ago and finished 4th in MVP voting. If the Niners don’t get the injury bug you have to assume Purdy’s touchdowns go back up from 20 to 31 as the Niners should be an NFC threat. He is going QB 10 this year and just feels a better bet than a Baker Mayfield 2 rounds earlier. Dak Prescott is probably my favorite fantasy QB draft pick. In his last three healthy seasons he has been QB 3, 7, and 2. This year he is being drafted as the QB 13 in the 9th round! He has the 2nd best odds to lead the league in passing yards, and with their lack of a run game he has the 7th best odds to lead the league in passing touchdowns. Dak and the Cowboys will sling it and I just don’t see why Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams are being drafted ahead of him.
JJ McCarthy is the biggest wildcard and I am super excited to target him. He has the draft pedigree being drafted 10th overall last season. He also has a genius leading the offense in Head Coach Kevin OConnell. OConnell had Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold as QB1s last three seasons, and while those two can sling it, McCarthy will add a new element with his rushing ability. Oh and there’s this receiver named Justin Jefferson on the Vikings which helps. CJ Stroud went from QB 11 to 18, and is being drafted as QB 21. Joe Mixon might miss time, they do have Nick Chubb, but they have a horrid OLine and might have to just spread it open and sling the rock. There is a legit shot he could lead the league in passing yards. Drake Maye at QB 15 interests me. The Patriots invested in a pass catching RB, and brought in Stefon Diggs to give Maye some weapons. His legs are a legit threat to rush for 500/600 yards this season. He’s going around round 12, but if the 2024 #3 overall pick improves his performance, he could easily exceed expectations. The Jordan Love fade is also interesting this season. Sure, last year wasn’t spectacular but two seasons ago he was QB 5 and they took a WR in the 1st round to give Love more options. Love is your safest backup QB and will outperform QB 17 pending health. These four quarterbacks are excellent backup targets.
TL:DR
Although I prefer to wait, the Big 4.5 this year are all worth the investment. Consider two pocket passers, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott in the middle of your draft. For backups, focus on younger players like McCarthy, Stroud, Maye, or a safer Love hoping one will take that next step.
RUNNING BACKS
Let’s start the next two sections with a few key points. Running Backs and Wide Receivers are the meat and potatoes of your fantasy teams! Quarterbacks and Tight Ends matter too, but you will go nowhere without the skill guys. By round 6, aim for 5 skill players, and by round 10, aim for 8. The early rounds are relatively straightforward since many of us know the top names, so I won’t elaborate much on them, but he middle is where leagues will be won.
Three targets I have very early in the draft are Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Every player has risk, but these three can break fantasy. They have home run speed potential and are involved in the pass game so can rack up easy points. Two running backs that I’m hesitant to draft are Saquon Barkley and Bucky Irving. If they burn me they burn me but Saquon had way too many touches last year that I’d simply prefer a younger Gibbs. With Bucky, my argument feels flawed. The 4th round rookie exploded last year and fit perfectly in Liam Coen’s system. I just want to see him do it again with a new OC to confirm that GMs misevaluated him in last year’s draft.
There will always be running backs who shine in the middle of your draft and catapult to RB1 status. And a popular draft method as of late has been waiting and waiting on Running Backs, but I feel that is semi outdated now. In your first two rounds I see a lot of benefit in having one or two RBs. By round 7 I see a lot of benefit in having three RBs. You can mix in a high end WR early, but I see WR depth this year where I only see RB singular targets. In rounds 3 and 4 I basically only love Chase Brown (and someone else in the next paragraph). Brown is a workhorse running back who should dominate snap count on a very very good Bengals offense. Where he differentiates from Kyren Williams for me is Brown’s breakaway speed. Reliable Alvin Kamara and James Conner are now 30 years old and I’d just rather look elsewhere than trust an aging back. One risk I like but not love is Kenneth Walker. The talent is clearly there but between backup Zach Charbonnet and Walkers injury concern it’s definitely a gamble.
Omarion Hampton is beginning to shoot up draft boards. The first round running back goes to a Chargers team with an excellent OLine and he will split carries with Najee Harris. We still don’t know Harris’s eye status after the fireworks episode, and Harris is a bruiser with a lack of speed. Hampton has the tools to be a 3 down back and will get better as the weeks go on. I want this dude on my team come the fantasy playoffs as 20 carries 5 catches is in the possibility of outcomes. Another rookie I like is RJ Harvey. The Broncos did bring in JK Dobbins, but he’s missed 11.5 games a season outside of his rookie year. Harvey is a speedster and has some Alvin Kamara in him, who Sean Payton turned to a superstar.
Two more running backs I want to target are ranked back to back, RBs 27 and 28, 80th and 81st overall. In the 6th round I like the idea of Tony Pollard and Isiah Pacheco. Pollard has rushed for 1000 yards the last three seasons and this year the box could be lighter as there will be a threat of pass in Tennessee with Cam Ward. I view Pollard’s backup Tyjae Spears as nothing more than a pass catching change of pace guy. Isiah Pacheco was probably over-drafted last season in the 2nd round, but he had 14 points each of the first two games before a big leg injury. He shook the rust off end of last season and looks his normal explosive self in training camp this season. The Chiefs RB1 should find the endzone 6-10 times and will help them keep the offense balanced.
As we get later in the draft I just feel we’re hoping for a lottery ticket. I feel it is easier to hit on a round 10+ Receiver than Running Back. But, Rico Dowdle is now on the Panthers and Chuba Hubbard could be in trouble. I think Hubbard is slightly a better runner, but I like Dowdle a decent amount more as a pass catcher. I could see Hubbard finishing RB 25 and Dowdle RB 30 and going off the board as RB 50, that’s not bad! My last shout out goes to Kyle Monangai. This is the perfect last round pick. His running back competition is DAndre Swift and Roshon Johnson. Monangai is a tank of a runner and an excellent pass blocker. He very well could fit Ben Johnson’s “Montgomery role” and get 8+ touchdowns.
TL:DR
Get your Running Backs early! Don’t exclusively draft RBs but I think there are more WR gems later. Keep a nice balance getting an elite WR and one of an elite QB or TE, but get your Running Backs! If you can afford patience, rookies Omarion Hampton and RJ Harvey should smash late in the season. I’d target one, and target a safer Tony Pollard / Isiah Pacheco more in the 6th round. Take a swing 8th-15th round on an RB or two, but they are truly lottery tickets there.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Let’s start the next two sections with a few key points. Running Backs and Wide Receivers are the meat and potatoes of your fantasy teams! Quarterbacks and Tight Ends matter too, but you will go nowhere without the skill guys. By round 6, aim for 5 skill players, and by round 10, aim for 8. The early rounds are relatively straightforward since many of us know the top names, so I won’t elaborate much on them, but he middle is where leagues will be won.
Wow! The first two rounds of receivers are stacked! AJ Brown is as talented as the any of them, but being on the Eagles worries me. Their volume just feels low so I wonder how high his ceiling could be. I really would love one of the top 8 WRs because tier 1 and tier 3 feel solid but tier 2 feels like a mess. Are Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans over the age hump and declining? Can Garrett Wilson put up WR1 numbers with Justin Fields? Will Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers support DJ Moore and DK Metcalf to make their cost worth it? How will JSN be under Darnold with no more Geno? What about Marvin Harrison Jr, will he take the next step? Rashee Rice is facing suspension and Xavier Worthy had a very inconsistent season. Rounds 3 and 4 are a perfect time to grab a running back and either a QB or TE.
Again ideally I get my one stud WR in the first two rounds, and rounds 5-7 feel WR paradise and a great spot to land two gems. Tetairoa McMillan was a top 10 overall pick and will be the alpha on the Panthers and is going in the 5th! Bryce Young has been looking for this target his first two years and this should really open things up. George Pickens goes from one of the least efficient passing offenses in the Steelers to the Cowboys where teams will have to put their #2 corner on him. I smell career highs across the board for him. Jameson Williams is putting together a great camp and the Lions new OC wants to be “less robotic” and let receivers be receivers. This explosive athlete will have every opportunity to shine. Round 6 has guys like Calvin Ridley who gets a huge upgrade from Will Levis to Cam Ward. His last three healthy seasons have all been 1000 yard years and I see that continuing. Chris Olave is in quarterback hell this season. But, I’m still in on him! We’ve seen his elite talent years 1 and 2 and new coach Kellen Moore moves his receivers around a lot. Olave will get a lot of looks despite bad QB play. Vets could be had in the 6th/7th even 8th this season. Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Deebo Samuel all change teams and while their peak years are done they still are ball players. Jakobi Meyers might be the most underrated receiver in the game. The Raider is WR1 even if he’s behind Bowers and Jeanty for who the offense runs through. Over the last 4 years he’s been between WR 23 and 33, and this year he might have his best QB / OC in Geno and Chip Kelley. I expect Meyers to be peppered.
Rounds 8-10 are filled with possession guys who might not rack up touchdowns but should give you a nice floor with their catches. Khalil Shakir (ouch to his high ankle sprain I’d say probably look elsewhere because there are options), Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, and Ricky Pearsall are good at getting open and should perform if they stay healthy. The main concern is their playing time, but with the draft winding down, there’s always some risk. Pearsall should smash early on, but if and when Aiyuk comes back it could get murky. He is my favorite “buy” of the group. Then there is a group of rookies who could all have a big impact this season. Reed’s teammate Matthew Golden is a speedster for the Packers and they lacked an alpha last season. Emeka Egbuka went to the Bucs in round 1. Evans is getting older and Godwin’s ankle might have not healed properly. Tre Harris and Jayden Higgins were taken round 2 to join the Chargers and Texans, and they both seem slated to be the teams WR2. 3rd rounder Kyle Williams is drawing a lot of buzz for the Patriots. All these teams need another weapon to step up so the path is there to beat their draft spot. The Texans might be top5 in pass attempts this year so at cost I am absolutely loving Higgins as my “rookie buy.” Take a flier on a rookie because lately rookie WRs have transitioned well to the NFL.
My home run targets for the last pick are teammates Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore. If one of these players performs well in a Josh Allen led offense, then the ceiling is the roof!
TL:DR
In the last few years it was popular to draft one elite RB and then draft a bunch in the middle rounds #HeroRB. Well, I think I like #HeroWR this season. Take an elite WR in rounds 1 or 2. Rounds 5-10 take 3 or 4 pass catchers and diversify how you do it. Aim for a rookie, aim for that high floor possession guy who will rack up catches. Get some top end RBs so you can take lots of chances later with WR where there is a lot more depth.
TIGHT ENDS
I like drafting a QB high this year, but I’m not all-in because of the “Big 3” Tight Ends. You could pick an elite QB and an elite TE, but I believe it’s better to choose just one. Brock Bowers in the 2nd, McBride in the third, and Kittle as a 3/4 all interest me. Bowers and McBride just had the 3rd and 4th most catches for a tight end in a season … ever! Bowers gets a big upgrade in QB and play caller this year with Geno Smith and the pace of OC Chip Kelly. I just love the idea of George Kittle in the late 3rd early 4th. He pumps out 70 catches 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns. But, the 49ers receiving core is a mess right now. Deebo is traded, Aiyuk doesn’t seem to be healthy, and Juaun Jennings wants a new contract. CMC and Kittle should be the 49ers engine this season.
In the 5th and 6th rounds you normally see three tight ends drafted and I am scared of all three. Laporta early 5th, Hockenson and Kelce in the 6th. Is Sam Laporta the guy he was two years ago when he was TE#1 or are there too many mouths to feed with the rise of Jameo Williams and loss of Ben Johnson. TJ Hockenson is super talented but he only had 2 startable weeks in 10 games played last season. He’s also third fiddle to Jefferson and Addison with a first time QB in McCarthy. Is Travis Kelce cooked especially when Rashee Rice gets back on the field? These are risks I prefer not to take even though they are three talented players.
If I’m not drafting a Big 3 I want to be in the TE 7-16. Three TEs go in or around round 7. I love Njoku who was TE #4 in points per game, and won’t have Deshaun Watson next season. You’d assume QB play will improve this year and Njoku should maintain his elite play over the last two seasons. I like Mark Andrews who, from week 6-18 had 11 touchdowns. We all remember the car crash preseason and the drop he had vs Buffalo in the playoffs, but he had a pretty solid year in between! I do not like Evan Engram. This has to do with me being stubborn and not a Bo Nix believer. He screams sophomore slump and Engram is a new piece to this puzzle. I’d rather wait for Tucker Kraft in the 9th or Jake Fergeson in the 11th. Kraft was TE #9 last year and he should still ascend as he’s going to year 3. Tucker Kraft is George Kittle-like. He’s a great blocker which doesn’t give you fantasy points but it will keep him on the field every play. Like Kittle, Kraft knows how to take space and is an elite YAC guy. If the Packers commit to Kraft, there is no reason for him not to be a top4 tight end. The Cowboys should be more 2023 than 2024 this season. Dak is going to air the ball out and Ceedee + Pickens will command attention. Dak loves Jake Fergeson though and if he repeats 2023 then you’re drafted an 80 catch TE in the 11th round!
One quick line on Dallas Goedert. He is a high end tight end who is in the leagues least passing offense with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Sadly, the volume isn’t there. Rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren look fun, but besides Bowers, rookie TEs usually don’t perform. They are fun to take a flyer on, but team them up with a vet.
TL:DR
Kittle in rounds 3 or 4 looks like it could be a home run. My favorite values are Kraft in the 9th or Ferguson in the 11th. Njoku is a solid choice in the 7th if you miss out on the top 3 tight ends but still want stability.
GAME PLAN
Ultimately all drafts are different but ideally I have a vision. Get two strong Running Backs in the say first four rounds. #HeroWR get an alpha WR early and in the middle of your draft attack WR. 3 or 4 pass catchers in rounds 5-10 is something I could get behind to build my team elsewhere. We have a Big 4.5 in Quarterbacks and a Big 3 in Tight Ends. These 7.5 players all go between the Mid 2nd through 4th rounds. Take a shot on a game changer, and wait on the other. So if it’s QB, wait on TE like a Kraft or Ferguson, if its TE, wait on QB like a Purdy or Dak. Yes, there are still defenses and kickers, but don’t chase there. Look for a defense with what you think is a favorable 2/4 weeks because every year the NFL is pretty different so what might be a strong unit last year is a struggling unit next year. After week 4 we’ll have a good idea who’s who and we can play the waiver wire. Kicker wise hunt some strong dome teams like the Cowboys Texans Lions Vikings and Chargers. These kickers will have ideal conditions at least half of their games. And MOST importantly … HAVE FUN! Be a shot caller, stand by your picks, and have fun on your way to glory. Best of luck comrades.
POWER RAKINGS
And now for something new. Every week I will give a power ranking. Yes, records will be a piece of the equation. But honestly, the equation is the vibes test. Winning matters, but I will list all 32 in who I think is flat out the best team at this moment, so form will be weighted heavily.
- 1. Eagles
- 2. Chiefs
- 3. Bills
- 4. Ravens
- 5. 49ers
- 6. Lions
- 7. Bengals
- 8. Packers
- 9. Commanders
- 10. Rams
- 11. Buccaneers
- 12. Texans
- 13. Vikings
- 14. Chargers
- 15. Broncos
- 16. Cowboys
- 17. Jaguars
- 18. Bears
- 19. Steelers
- 20. Falcons
- 21. Patriots
- 22. Dolphins
- 23. Seahawks
- 24. Raiders
- 25. Panthers
- 26. Cardinals
- 27. Colts
- 28. Giants
- 29. Jets
- 30. Titans
- 31. Browns
- 32. Saints
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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