Texans +3 – HIT!
Commander +3 – HIT!
2024 NCAA 9-10-1
2024 NFL 15-14-1
NCAA 117-120-6
NFL 158-132-11
274-253-17
We are 5-2 our last 3 weeks picking up steam at the right time!
Since losing to Michigan, Ohio State just destroyed a strong SEC team in Tennessee, took #1 Oregon’s lunch money, and defeated Texas soundly who’s been in the top5 basically all season. I feel like this run is underappreciated how dominant they’ve been. Notre Dame’s wins are impressive but way less sexy. This also fits them as a team, sound but not sexy! They took care of a fiesty upstart Indiana, and then beat two very physical teams who lacked QB play in Georgia and Penn State. I won’t fade Ohio State, but I have a hard time laying the 8 points Monday night. I think they are way more explosive, but we’ve seen how strong this Notre Dame defense can be. The thing is, the Ohio State defense has been more impressive because they’ve played stronger offenses. Head says Ohio State a comfy 28-14 like their last game vs Texas, heart thinks former Buckeye and now Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has something up his sleeve to keep us entertained for 4 quarters. Good luck to friend of the program GKFlo a legacy Ohio State kid.
In the NFL this week I support the four underdogs. I’ll touch up on three of them at the end, but there’s one play that I’ll put my record against.
Commanders +9.5 at Lions
I could go on and on how amazing this Lions offense is! But man, this defense is rough. Their IR list could practically field a good NFL unit, especially at edge rush with no Aidan Hutchenson or Marcus Davenport! Enter the Commies who average a 5th best 28.5 points a game, and come in with nothing to lose. Jayden Daniels dual threat ability has certainly taken the league by storm and should have Aaron Glenn up all night this week prepping for him. It has to be hard for Glenn and Ben Johnson juggling interviews to be an NFL head coach next year while also preparing for this fun Commanders team. I can see the Lions also working back in David Montgomery for a better long term, next week outlook. Get him some touches and work him back in the flow. The Lions offense won’t miss a beat, but they were certainly rolling with just Gibbs. And speaking of rolling, the Commies haven’t lost since preThanksgiving. I don’t think the moment is too big for them. They play a unique style that is hard to slow down. The Lions probably advance, but I think we have a one score game on our hands.
The Chiefs are dominant and really are the Patriots 2.0. Mahomes and Reid are top3 all time as a Quarterback / Head Coach, and they have each other. The Chiefs offense has been “suspect” but they just seem to strike early and strike late, with their defense being a steal curtain making it impossible for other teams. I will say though, they rarely blow teams out. They went 15-2 and their average game is about 22.5-19. That’s only a 3.5 average win for a team who went 15-2! They just beat the Texans on Christmas by 8 points in a game that was Chiefs -3.5 (Mahomes had injury concerns). I think Texans +8.5 is the right play, but the Chiefs did just have two weeks off and you gotta really be ballsy to bet against them in the playoffs.
The Rams feel like they are clicking. Their defensive line put on a show in the Wild Card round and Matthew Stafford turns up his game in the postseason. I worry that the Rams are all speed no physicality especially with their DLine. I see a clean pocket and big running lanes for Hurts / Saquon. It’ll also be crummy out and we have a domed LA team travelling to Philly. The environment and the personnel scream Philly, but I don’t want to bet against the better coach and quarterback in McVay and Stafford, who are 6-1 their last seven with their one loss coming week 18 resting a good amount of starters.
Feels like the whole world is on the Ravens and I totally get it. They dominatedddd Buffalo early in the season and the Lamar Jackson + Derrick Henry duo has been amazing. Buffalo was down 3 defensive starters that game and while they’ve been soft in the past this feels a different defense. I think snow would help Buffalo. I’ve always felt snow helps the passing offense. Footing becomes all the most crucial and in snow the offense knows when they have to / want to cut, and the defense has to go off reaction. Lamar does have the yards over Allen, but with no Zay Flowers and Josh Allen’s great postseason history, I’m taking the Bills passing attack especially if we get snow as predicted. This game has all the potential to be a classic, and I see the home team advancing.
Cover wise I really feel and hope for entertainment value, that all five dogs cover. Favorites feel on an unreal stretch this past month. Notre Dame, Texans, Commies, Rams, Bills. Let the games begin you already SHNOW!
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
Leave a comment