Week Seventeen

Tennessee +7 – Miss.
Steelers +6.5 – Miss
2024 NCAA 8-9-1
2024 NFL 11-13-1
NCAA 116-119-6
NFL 154-131-11
269-251-17

We’ve been leaking lately so it’s time to turn this thing around! We Missed the NFL action this weekend with a busy, but a good busy life. So I’ll make this a college football special and get back on track next Friday with a post. Before I get to the games, I want to talk about Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy.

What in the World SHOULD the Vikings do with Sam Darnold. They drafted JJ McCarthy with the #10 pick in this most recent NFL Draft so clearly they believe in him. We don’t have the most game footage of him, as he was asked to be very conservative in college and only played in one preseason game before he needed an ACL surgery. Sam Darnold was given an opportunity and boy did he run with it as the Vikings are 14-2 with a chance at the #1 seed next week. How do you move on from 4153 yards 35 touchdowns and counting? And have you seen how much the team is rallying behind their leader? Sam Darnold is in the perfect situation with an amazing coach and great supporting staff, so you’d assume McCarthy could come in and do similar, for a lot cheaper. But, can the Vikings really move on? Should they franchise tag him and trade him? Tag and ask him to do it one more time, which he’d probably be VERY unhappy with as he wants to cash out, resign, or simply let him walk, which like I feel is the least likely because you should at least get something in return. I still think all of this depends, like if the Vikings lose to the Lions and lose the first round of the playoffs, then it’ll feel easier to plan for McCarthy in 2025. Right now, I’m offering a 3 year 150 million dollar deal, and if he doesn’t take that I’m looking to tag and trade him. We’ve seen Rodgers and Love sit for multiple years, so I’d sit McCarthy a max of four seasons and let Darnold cook. The first two years would be his without a doubt, and that third season he can finish his deal or now you run with McCarthy. I think Darnold has had too good a year that you have to think of a short term contract. Maybe Darnold will be adamant for that 4th year, but you negotiate. If money becomes a factor try and tag and move on, but see if you can do a three year with the first two heavily guaranteed.

As for Brock Purdy. Maybe it’s his draft status, in which Tom Brady defied the odds, but I’m still not a believer. He feels very Jimmy G 2.0. The streets are saying he wants top dollar, 60 million a year in his extension, and frankly, I’m not going above 45 million. We’ve seen his limitations when the scheme isn’t winning and him missing big time throws. He’s a great manager, and the Niners had plentyyyyy of injuries, but right when Trent Williams went down the wheels fell off the bus. I need my QB to elevate the talent around him if I’m paying him top dollar. Purdy is the perfect fit to not mess things up but if you pay him now that’s less money for McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. The Niners should not budge over 4 years 180 million with an out after 2 years like Daniel Jones contract, and if Purdy won’t accept it then look for Kirk Cousins and start studying the draft. If the Niners don’t pay Purdy, would a team like the Giants or Steelers pay him 50/60 million? I think not.

Baylor -3.5 v LSU
Baylor is winners of 6 straight being led by a fun offense. I wouldn’t boast about Baylor’s DLine, but LSU will start 3 freshman OLineman due to the draft / transfer portal. They will also be down to just one scholarship tight end, and their best WR Lacy will not be suiting up. No hate at all, take care of your body and prep for the NFL draft! But Baylor will be coming with a full squad looking to cap off a very up and down year with a bowl ring. Regular season wise I’d lean more LSU especially the way Nussmeier finished the year, but I can see this offense stalling without their horses.

Notre Dame +2 v Georgia
Georgia’s Gunnar Stockton did his job filling in for Carson Beck in the SEC Championship game, but besides the first drive, he really didn’t do much. And I mean, that’s okay, he’s the backup and managed the game. I see the Georgia Notre Dame game to play out similarly, and playing out like the Notre Dame Texas A&M game. Notre Dame has a defense that I believe can go toe to toe with the top tier SEC teams. Georgia will try to out-physical them, but this is what Notre Dame would prefer in my opinion, compared to the speed Georgia had in the past. With a total being relatively low in college terms, turnovers will be magnified. Stockton looked a little over his head and threw a baddd interception vs Texas, and Notre Dame is taking the ball away at a top3 clip at 2.2 a game. Since Riley Leonard’s inexcusable game v NIU he’s been a great manager accounting for 31 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. I see a big QB advantage sliding to Notre Dame. Notre Dame is also cool with playing a field possession game and showing patience, like the A&M game that I mentioned. In that game they punted on the opposition’s 40 yard line pinning A&M at the 11. The football craze is going for it on these 4th downs but Notre Dame still shows patience, and it worked out ending the drive in an interception. I’ll take the Irish in a game that I think will be a race to 21.

Thank you,
Goose