Week Fifteen

Oregon -3.5 – HIT!
SMU -2 – Miss.
Falcons +6 – Miss.
2024 NCAA 8-8-1
2024 NFL 10-9-1
NCAA 116-118-6
NFL 153-127-11
268-246-17

Texans -3 v Dolphins
The Texans are 8-5 but something feels a little more off than last year for them. I believe they just had their bye week at the perfect moment and will play a team who cannot expose Texans weakness. The Texans offensive line is letting CJ Stroud down and he’s being sacked at an alarming rate. The Dolphins pass rush hasn’t been anything special so I expect Stroud to deal out of the bye. On defense is where the Texans have been thriving as of late. They are top 3 in sack rate, interception rate, and opponent completion percentage. Tua has been taking care of the ball as of late, but the Dolphins haven’t been the explosive group we are used to. Not going to call them schedule merchants but in winning four of their last five, they beat the Rams, Raiders, Patriots, and Jets. Winning at the Rams is huge, but I’m not feeling that the Dolphins are back. Their run game hasn’t been the same, and their pass rush isn’t there. I see an uphill battle for them to keep it close in Houston.

Patriots +6 at Cardinals
Post October, Kyler Murray led teams are 12-26. Some pointed this could be a Kliff Kinsbury stat, but he’s no longer the coach and the Cardinals have lost three straight. Eye test says to me that each week Drake Maye was building off the last week. Now they got a bye week for him to mentally reset for the last four game stretch. Going from New England to Arizona is a decent travel but he’s going to face a slumping Cardinals team. When Arizona is at their best they run the ball efficiently. Post bye Kyler is only rushing four times a game, Trey Benson is looking like a bust, and James Conner had a good game last week but nothing special. On top of that, the Patriots have not given up a rushing touchdown in their last five games. Things are beginning to click in New England and I see them winning outright, but the Korner goes by the spread so give me the 6.

Seahawks +3 v Packers
Now that all the bye weeks are done, we can begin to look at the NFL stats with some meanings. Geno Smith is 2nd in passing yards! The Seahawks are 8-5 and on a 4 game win streak and I feel they are the league’s most underrated team. Now the Packers are good, real good! But I wouldn’t have them favorites on the road in what is known for a very loud hostile environment in Seattle. Jordan Love has superstar qualities but he is also a turnover machine who’s thrown 11 interceptions. He’ll be throwing against a Seattle group who has caught an interception in 7 straight games! With the Rams on the heels of the Seahawks, this could be a good showcase for Geno and the boys to show they are for real.

Bears +7 at Vikings
The Bears have lost 7 straight but besides last week’s belt to ass beatdown, they’ve seemed to have been playing better post firing of Eberflus. I’m gonna cross out the Bears Niners game and point to Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in seven games and in his last three has thrown seven touchdowns. Sometimes it takes rookies a little longer, but we are starting to see why he was the 1st overall pick. We’ve seen in recent weeks Sam Darnold regress but the Vikings keep winning. The Vikings defense has been A+ but Caleb Williams threw for 341 against them. If the Vikings offense plays like it did 2 weeks ago vs the Cardinals going 1-8 on 3rd down, and if Caleb continues to be efficient, then the Bears will be in another nail biter. I’m not sure if they can pull out the win, but their form and talent keep it close.

Thank you,
Goose