Week Twelve

I thought we were going to have a roaring comeback for the sweep but the Bengals teased us and fell short. We’ll always take profit at 2-1 though.
How about those Scarlet Knights! Rutgers football has dealt with wild injury luck and dropped four straight before their bye week. Coach Schiano basically called out the media for all of the negative press and BOOM, wins vs Minnesota and at Maryland. Vegas had the line of Minnesota -6 and Maryland -4.5, so according to Vegas, Rutgers beat two teams they saw better than Rutgers. That’s my coach!!

Eagles -4 – HIT!
Colorado -11.5 – HIT!
Bengals +1.5 – Miss.
2024 NCAA 6-7-1
2024 NFL 8-6-1
NCAA 114-117-6
NFL 151-124-11
265-241-17

UConn +10 at Syracuse
Syracuse has had a nice year 1 under Fran Brown, and they are coming off a win going to Cal last week. UConn had the luxury of having off last week. UConn is 0-3 vs Power Four programs this season, but they did cover vs Duke and missed a cover from Wake by a half of a point. The game boils down to a few factors to me. The well rested UConn will play their biggest game of the year looking to make a statement win. They are a run based team playing against a Syracuse squad who hasn’t been able to stop a run. Syracuse gives up 5.4 yards per carry which ranks 121st out of 134 Division 1 teams. When Syracuse has the ball they like to air it out with Kyle McCord. UConn’s defense is far from stout but their 3-3-5 system gets plenty of defensive backs on the field. I’m sure McCord will rack up yards like he’s been, but this is also the style UConn wants to play, they do not want to face a ground and pound team. All in all I see this as a close battle as UConn gets up for their Super Bowl facing a geographical rival who they match up well with schematically.

Colts +7.5 vs Lions
The way the Colts handled Anthony Richardson was questionable, trying to sit him for the season, but the few games he sat might’ve given him the reset he needed. I realize I’m backing one of the most Jekyll and Hyde QB we’ve seen in a long time but I think the run first approach could be a good way to slow the Lions down. Because the Lions lead a lot, teams run on them 36% which is 3rd least. Today should be a change of pace game, running on the Lions and playing a physical vs a finesse game. When the Colts pass, ARich goes deeeeeep. Terrion Arnold is out and Ennis Rakestraw is on IR. Last week’s eye test tells me Richardson had a mental reset and a stat line of 20/30 for 272 yards and 1 touchdown really feels repeated as long as the game comes to him at the same speed. No Aiden Hutchenson, no DBacks for the Lions, the Colts “should score.” I get that the Lions offense is a buzzsaw but I think the Colts can keep up shot for shot.

Bucs -6 at Giants
The sequel is rarely if ever better than the original. Look, Tommy Devito is an NFL QB, there’s clearly some talent there to make it to this level, but I think it could get ugly in East Rutherford. The situation feels gimmicky to me. Why was Lock the backup the whole season if when they benched Jones they jumped Devito from 3rd to 1st? It just feels they want to give the fans something to hold on to as the season winds down. If he’s better than Lock he should’ve been the backup out of training camp. The Giants did get a bye week to figure out their QB spot, but the Bucs are also off of a bye week. The Bucs are 4-6 on a 4 game losing streak, but in those 4 games they hosted the Ravens Falcons and Niners, and went to Kansas City and lost. You always want to protect your home field, but those are some tough foes. Chris Godwin is missed for the Bucs, but rookie Jalen McMillan will return from injury and should step in to that slot role. The Bucs average a 5th best 27.9 points a game and off the bye week I expect them to reach that level. The Giants have a great defensive line but give up a 3rd worse 69.8 completion percentage. I just don’t see how the Giants can go toe to toe with the Bucs offense, and if they somehow do I will own it that I was wrong to call Devito a gimmick and eat chicken cutlets in honor of him.

Rams +3 vs Eagles
What we have here is a 5-5 “desperate?” Rams team who has the best QB in the NFC and a top2 coach in the NFC. The Eagles are LOADED but the coaching matchup feels large. The Eagles will have to travel across country for this one and I expect Matt Stafford to figure this one out. Eagles DLine? DAWGS! But we’ve seen McVay call short game and screens ala week one at Detroit, which they lost, but nearly beat the Lions. McVay’s gameplan seems to change every week and that’s because he either attacks opponents weakness or masks teams weakness. The Eagles defense has been baller but it’s also skewed from playing Deshaun Watson Browns, Giants, and Cowboys as 3 of the 6 in this win streak. The Eagles are very good, but the streak ends at 6 in my opinion.

Thank you,
Goose