Week Eleven

Week 11! The football season is in full force. We are started to see our top 14 take shape in the NFL. There are some gosh darn awful teams in the NFL this season. The quarterback play I think has dropped over the years. Patrick Mahomes and a few others are doing things we’ve never seen before. But we are also seeing some poor basic reads, shotgun only at times, bad quarterback play. Culture is a buzzword that some people are sick of, but there’s some baddddd culture on teams in the NFL. Owners, GMs, and HCs far from the same page, and the ones on the field are the ones who suffer. Cough Cough Jaguars. But I mean, look at the Commanders. New Owner, new management, new HC, a stud QB, and bam they have a promising five year+ window. We’re getting late in the College Football year and the top12 is starting to be a little clearer. But that’s less than 10% of the Division I teams, there’s 128 in total. Some teams have different motivations and are just looking to become bowl eligible. We’re a week or two away from a team or two ready to quit and their pride will be questioned, but all in all we’re in line for a great few weeks of teams scratching and clawing to hit their goals.

2024 NCAA 5-7-1
2024 NFL 7-5-1
NCAA 113-117-6
NFL 150-123-11
263-240-17

Eagles -4 vs Commanders
I see a lot of the Texans in the Commanders. Rookie QB, defensive minded head coach who has this team “keeping the main thing the main thing” and most importantly, a team many see as ahead of schedule. Washington was a disaster and now they have a window open. All that being said, I like Philly on Thursday night. We have one of the league’s best offenses, led by their dynamic run game, vs a softer Washington defense who is bottom five in yards per rush. Since Philly’s bye, they are 5-0 with Saquon averaging 111 rushing yards and Jalen Hurts having EIGHT rushing touchdowns. Something else happened since the Eagles bye, and that was the return of AJ Brown, and in games he plays in, the Eagles are 6-0. Philly might have a coaching issue, but they have a more than loaded offense which makes up for the decision making. The Eagles are facing a rookie QB, on a short rest Thursday night match. I think the Commanders are a playoff team, but the cards are stacked against them in this spot. I’m also not calling the Commanders frauds, but their opponents combined record for Washington wins are 23-45 and their combined record for Washington losses are 20-11. The Eagles are a good team at 7-2, something a young Commanders team has struggled with, and I see Philly having their way on the ground and the Commanders struggling to keep up.

Colorado -11.5 v Utah
Colorado has covered seven straight games, going 6-1 in that stretch, since the primetime beatdown at Nebraska. I see the train rolling. Physical teams will give Colorado trouble, and Utah is a physical bunch. I do not see how Utah scores enough points to keep up in this match. Utah will go back to 2nd string QB Isaac Wilson, after they benched him for a 3rd stringer who is now out for the season. Wilson, the younger brother to Zach Wilson, played some bad defenses his last three starts and Utah scored 10 at Arizona, 7 vs TCU and 14 vs Houston. Colorado won’t be able to run a track meet on Utah, but they might not need much as the Utah offense has been close to nonexistent with Isaac Wilson. Utah is also off an extremely emotional loss. How emotional? Well in the post game press conference, the Utah Athletic Director got on the mic and said the game was stolen from them, and he isn’t even excited to be in the Big 12 at the moment. Players get caught up in this stuff and I do not see a focused Utah group. I look for Shedeur Sanders to continue the case that he is QB #1 and I look for Utah to be a team ready to pack it up for the season.

Bengals +1.5 at Chargers
The Bengals lost a heartbreaker at Baltimore last Thursday night to bring them to 4-6. One might look at that as a dagger to the team’s psyche, but the Bengals are a veteran group and I think they can have a short memory. That game was also last Thursday, so while they do have to travel to Los Angeles, they are coming off of a mini-bye. I’m still trying to figure out the Chargers but my gut tells me they aren’t as good as their record says of 6-3. They’ve won all the games they’ve been supposed to, and their defensive metrics might be overinflated by the bad offenses they’ve handled. In Cincinnati’s 5 games that Tee Higgins has played in, the Bengals have averaged 28.6 points. He’s on track to play Sunday night and I think the combo of him and Chase are too much for the Chargers to handle. I also somehow like what I’m seeing with this Bengals defense as of late. The Ravens game where they gave up 35 had some broken plays and miscommunication. The Ravens are darn good and will do that to teams. The Chargers do not have a receiver who’s a gamebreaker, and are built off the run. Well, Bengals run defense when healthy isn’t a pushover at all. DT BJ Hill practiced today (Thursday) and Trey Hendrickson looks like he’ll be good to go while resting today. I see a team ready to put it together in the Bengals, and an over inflated team due to the schedule in the Chargers.

Thank you,
Goose