Took off last week! The NFL record is respectable but I’m not seeing the board the most clearly. I’m hooked on prop bets. I’m not going to say they are easy at all, but some receivers just perform better in a 1 high or a 2 high safety look. Things don’t always hit, but if the data says for whatever reason receiver x goes demon mode v 1 high then I’ll take their yardage. I just feel there are less variables to consider, but I do not want to bring props to the Korner. The Korner is a game blog and I try to leave out the cute stuff.
I guess deep down I thought Rutgers was going to lose to UCLA. I told my guys do not bet Rutgers spread. There were way too many injuries on defense for my liking and UCLA had a darn hard schedule. Maybe UCLA does stink, but that version of Rutgers isn’t beating anyone. I mean, the offense scored 32 points!! And still lost! Rutgers made Ethan Gabers look like a Heisman level QB. It might get ugly and ugly quick tonight vs USC. USC has their struggles but they have a high tempo offense with a good quarterback. If the injury report is the same as it was vs UCLA, USC might not punt tonight. Escape with no injuries, get a bye week to maybe get healthy, and Chop Minnesota.
2024 NCAA 4-6
2024 NFL 5-2-1
NCAA 112-116-5
NFL 147-120-11
260-236-16
UNLV Boise State Over 63
In way’s this feels like a trap. I mean this is the 3rd highest vs the 5th highest scoring team in all of college football combining to score 90.4 points a game! Both these teams are strong running teams which could be a concern because the clock should continue to run. Ashton Jeanty is extremely well rested though, playing six quarters of football the last three weeks, and Boise will need to rely on him tonight. The best thing for UNLV might’ve been their starting quarterback stepping away from the team in the NIL dispute. New QB Hajj-Malik Williams has accounted for 14 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, and was an OT loss to Syracuse away from having UNLV be 7-0. Him and UNLV put up 41 points that night in the 44-41 loss. I’m not overly impressed with either defense and I think we could see a great track meet. Both teams could stumble after this game, but this is clearly the hardest game remaining in what could be a birth to the Mountain West championship game and one step closer to a college football playoff berth. Look for them to throw everything out there and find the endzone plenty.
UConn -7 vs Rice
Rice had their chance for a signature win last week and blew it. They were tied 10-10 with Tulane in the mid 3rd and the 22.5 point underdogs lost 24-10 thanks to 5 Rice turnovers. Rice has only forced 4 turnovers all year, but as you see they are a careless group. I expect UConn to get back on track this week after their loss to Wake. QB Nick Evers returned for the Wake game but looked a little rusty. He got his feet wet again and I look for the dual threat QB to have more than 3 rushing yards this weekend. Let’s look at UConn’s resume. They are 0-3 vs Power4 teams, losing 50-7 to Maryland, 26-21 to Duke, and 23-20 to Wake. They beat up on FCS Merrimack 63-17. And vs Group of 5 teams, they are 3-0 winning 124-37. Rice isn’t a Maryland or a Duke. Those teams have the size and speed that outmatch the Group of 5. UConn should control this and get one step closer to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2011.
Colorado -6.5 v Cincinnati
Cinci is a nice 5-2 but has played and defeated two backup QBs last two games. Most of us remember Colorado getting destroyed by Nebraska in Week 2 but Nebraska had the size on their lines, and their environment mixed with the rivalry helped snowball that game. Colorado is a good football team and I expect them to play well vs inferior opponents. Cinci’s defense is nothing special, again they played well vs back ups the last two weeks, but they gave up 44 to Texas Tech and 28 to Pitt. I look for Colorado to be closer to that 44 mark because I think he will have the necessary time to throw vs the Cinci DLine. I do not think Cinci will be able to go punch for punch with this Colorado offense. The Colorado defense is one of the more underrated groups in the country. Last year they were swiss cheese, this year in their four Big12 games, they’ve held each team under their season average. Cinci is averaging 30 points a game so I have them in the 24 mark this weekend. Colorado clinches a bowl berth and wins about 35-24 this weekend.
Texans -5 v Colts
CJ Stroud is 2-1 vs this Colts defense averaging 294 pass yards, 2 touchdowns a game, and has yet to throw an interception vs this heavy cover3 Colts scheme. Anthony Richardson is averaging 18.5 points a game in games he’s played all four quarters. His 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 6 interceptions, and 1 loss fumble won’t cut it vs this strong Texans team when the Colts are on the road. Stroud is off of his worst game of his career throwing 10/22 for 86 yards. Now we have him at home, in a big divisional game, where the Texans are 10-2 in Stroud’s 12 home games in his early career. The Colts give up the 2nd most rush yards per game, 159.9, so not only should Stroud shred them, look for Joe Mixon to keep these chains moving. The Colts won’t be able to keep up scoring wise as long as Richardson is under center.
Cardinals +4.5 at Dolphins
Tua is back! This is also a good spot for him to return as the Cardinals pass defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. But, after five weeks off, I think Tua will show a little rust. It also should be fairly windy in Miami so look for this game to be won on the ground. The Cardinals run defense is better than their pass defense and I think this will keep them floating in this game. We all know the dynamic Miami rush offense, but Kyler Murray has rushed for 60+ yards in two of his last three games, and James Conner has three 100+ yard rush games in the seven this season. The Dolphins DLine took another hit this week, as DTackle Zach Sieler is out. Add that with ends Phillips and Bradley Chubb and that’s 3 of 4 starters. Miami is also averaging the most penalty yards per game this season at 73.3. With a potential rusty Tua, if we can keep getting good penalty luck, the Cardinals will stay in this on their trip to the East Coast.
Giants +6 at Steelers
Last week we saw the Eagles beat the Giants 28-3 and the Steelers beat the Jets 37-15 in Russell Wilson’s first start as a Steeler. This is the lowest total on the board at 36.5, so I will take the 6 points after the Steelers best game and Giants worst. No Andrew Thomas for the Giants is a concern, but Daniel Jones was playing some real good football the last four weeks before the Eagles debacle. He was throwing for 245 yards on 66%. I think he bounces back on the road where historically he has played better in his 6 year career. I trust the Giants defensive line to get more pressure on Russell Wilson, which the Jets couldn’t do. Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence are difference makers, and a sped up Russell Wilson will not be able to throw fade after fade for George Pickens to capitalize. Especially Dexter Lawrence’s pressure up the middle. Let’s remember Wilson is on the smaller side so pressure up the middle will severely limit his vision. Giants lost by 3 at Washington, and beat Cleveland and Seattle in their buildings, I look for them to be competitive in Pittsburgh.
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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