Week Five

Man. Friday night is hard to put in words. Rutgers had a new pregame opening and at first it was “whatever” but the more and more we get away from the game it’s hitting me. Rutgers played “Dream On” and had a little montage with fireworks. The message was simple, you’ve dreamed about this moment, now go be the difference #DreamOn. And sadly, it’s been 10 years since we felt this kind of buzz. But that’s what Schiano does, he builds Rutgers up and we can compete. Rutgers just plays some sound football. They haven’t been turning it over, and they pound the rock. Washington was gaining yards on yards but a holding call, a personal foul, or a missed kick and now they gained those yards for nothing. On one end, you can say Rutgers was lucky to beat Washington as Washington doubled their yardage, but you can also say Rutgers was better coached, better prepared, and they chopped the moment. It was a spectacular show, all the lights, fireworks, music, and drones, and Washington’s coach tipped his cap to the environment, and maybe just maybe the crowd was the difference. Rutgers heads away from home and goes to Nebraska this weekend. I’ve never been at a Penn State White Out, but I’ve been to Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska games. What else is there to do in Nebraska except go to the football games? This will by far be the hardest environment Rutgers will play in, probably the hardest in each player’s career. The fans get loud, they sell out the stadium, and I certainly love our pregame entrance but if I’m choosing any other school’s entrance in America it’s Nebraska’s walkout to the old Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls song. Rutgers will just need their Michael Jordan, Kyle Monangai, to lock in and make it personal. It’s going to take a hellova effort to come away with this win, and if our leader Monangai can get the wheels rolling I know the rest of the team will follow. CHOP!

Bucs +1.5 – HIT!
2024 NCAA 3-4
2024 NFL 3-1
NCAA 111-114-5
NFL 145-119-10
257-233-15

Falcons -2 v Bucs
Tampa has been one of the more surprise teams this season. Many thought they would be top2 in their division and flirt with the playoffs, but they beat down an injured Philly (Korner dub!) went to Detroit and won, and gave rookie sensation Jayden Daniels the business. I still like Atlanta at home, on a short week this week. Besides the stinker they put up at week 1 vs Steelers, the Falcons have looked a lot sharper as of late. Kirk Cousins has 4 interceptions in the 4 games this season, but last week his receiver slipped and two weeks ago his arm got hit and the ball was a flying duck. Every week he seems to get closer to the Vikings version Kirk Cousins, making this Falcons offense move the chains. Kirk gets a Tampa defense averaging .5 interceptions and 2 sacks a game on Thursday night who’s still searching for defensive back help. Health and situation, all signs point to a Cousins breakout game. I also like how conservative Atlanta has been this season. Younghoe Koo is now 9 for 9 in field goals, and in the Falcons wins he’s 7 for 7. Atlanta pairs their strong quarterback with a defensive minded head coach who is not afraid to simply take the points. The Bucs have a strong offense so field goals won’t beat them, but empty possessions really won’t beat them. Atlanta is 4 weeks in to the Cousins experiment and are beginning to find their identity. I like their chances vs a division foe, at home, on a short week.

Missouri +2.5 at Texas A&M
Missouri will enter an intimidating Kyle Field on Saturday where they can make a statement and show they are a playoff threat. Missouri will be off of a bye, and just beat two very feisty teams at home, Vandy and BC. What I think will take them over A&M is their quarterback play. Both teams like to run the rock, and Mizzou’s Nate Noel from Appalachian State has transitioned well to the SEC. Give me Brady Cook over whoever A&M starts at QB though. Conner Weigman did not look good game 1 vs Notre Dame and has been hurt since, but he’s listed as questionable now. Marcel Reed has been serviceable for A&M going 22-39 for 341 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in two SEC games. I just don’t think that’ll be enough vs a Mizzou but was enough at Florida and vs Arkansas. When both defenses look to stop the run, Missouri will be able to move the chains through the air. In a potential grindout, old school SEC win in the trenches ball, with both trenches equal, I want the better QB.

Jaguars -3 v Colts
The most buy low of all buy low spots. The 0-4 Jaguars face a shaky Colts team the week after the media says Doug Pederson lost the locker room. Let’s start with the Colts. They clearly look better with a pocket passer, in a more short / intermediate throwing offense. That isn’t me saying Anthony Richardson is a bust, but him and Coach don’t seem like they fit. Now we get a banged up Anthony Richardson vs a desperate Jaguars team. Bad teams find a way to lose games, but I think everyone who’s watched realizes how close the Jags actually are from being 3-1 at worst 2-2. But again, bad teams find a way to lose games. So why will it be different this week? The Colts are banged up, especially on defense. They are vulnerable against the run, and run a funnel cover 3 Gus Bradley base system. Trevor Lawrence is normally at his best vs a cover 3 system, but he didn’t turn it on vs the Browns till late in the game. I’ve been more than frustrated with the play calling and coaching, but I think the staff realizes the urgency and will stop getting cute and win a football game. Evan Engram should be back this week which should complete the Jags puzzle of him and Kirk over the middle, and BTJ and Gabe Davis on the outside. Lawrence has basically only looked deep since Engram went out so it’ll mean a lot to have his safety blanket vs this Colts defense. Make sure Richardson is starting, make sure Engram is back, and then we send it!

Thank you,
Goose