Week One

The Jacksonville St Coastal read couldn’t have been more wrong by me. I didn’t even have the right starting quarterback, and Coastal’s offense gelled immediately. The first quarter of the West Virginia Penn State game was slightly promising but West Virginia seemed like the moment was too big and couldn’t get out of their own way. At least we had Vandy! I think VaTech will be more than fine this season but a week 0 run-option team is hard to prepare for.
I’m going to take a week off for college picks. This has nothing to do with the 1-2 start. In week 0 we went off of our preseason feelings. Some teams played better than expected, some worse than expected. I’d like a 2nd game under teams belts to see if week 0 was real or a fluke. We are still dealing with amateurs so don’t expect a week off in the NFL next week.
Two games I’m tempted to buy the dip on are Michigan and NC State. Texas is off of a semi finals appearance and looked strong last week vs a weaker Colorado State team. Many people saw Michigan’s offense struggle vs Fresno State on Saturday. Was Michigan shaking off the cobwebs, or has their offense seriously regressed? Michigan still has a strong defense led by corner Will Johnson who had a pick-six on Saturday. I find it hard to believe that Texas will go to the Big House and win by more than a touchdown. If Michigan’s offense truly did take that big of a step back then Texas probably covers, but I think Michigan’s run game should be stronger.
NC State nearly lost to Western Carolina. To start the 4th WCU was up 21-17 and in the final 15 NC State rattled off three touchdowns. The ACC as a whole looked pretty mid week 0, but NC State is one of the better ACC teams. They didn’t have it against WCU but still won, and I expect a better performance vs Tennessee. Tennessee did win 69-3 but that was against Chattanooga. Tennessee’s pace and aerial attack is hard to keep up with and it looks like the hype behind Nico Iamaleava is justified. But the Freshman now has to go on the road to Raleigh, under the lights. If we take out week 0’s results I think it would be hard to justify Tennessee coming in and winning by more than a touchdown. But, maybe Grayson McCall isn’t the QB we thought he is and the jump from the Sun Belt to the ACC is too much for him.

Jax St -3 – Miss.
West Virginia +8 – Miss.
Vanderbilt +13.5 – HIT!
2024 NCAA 1-2
2024 NFL
NCAA 109-112-5
NFL 143-118-10
252-231-15

Jaguars +3.5 at Dolphins
Homer Pick? Maybe! But I feel the Jaguars catch the Dolphins at a good time. In the last blog we talked about the Jaguars offensive line being the potential downfall of the team. Miami’s offensive line isn’t the greatest either. They will have the best lineman on the field in Terron Armstead but he’s already taking a rest day on Wednesday for practice. They also lost their left guard and center to big contracts in the offseason. Miami defensive lineman Jaelan Phillips will be on a snap count and Bradley Chubb is out. Oh and Jalen Ramsey will play but he sat out of practice Wednesday for a contract hold-in. Miami was a playoff team last season and has all the potential to go back, but I think they are more vulnerable in week 1 then they will be in week 3. I have my concerns on the Jaguars corners which might be detrimental vs a Miami offense. The defensive line should be real good in Duval though. Josh Hines Allen and Travon Walker combined for 27.5 sacks last season and they brought in Arik Armstead. Travon and Armstead are physical and hopefully they set the edge and allow linebackers to make plays in the run game. Tua throws the ball quickly but JHA has been a terror off the edge. There’s no stopping this Miami offense unless it’s below freezing, but the Jags should slow them down. Let’s not forget the Jaguars were 8-3 pre Trevor Lawrence injury last season. He looked sharp this preseason spreading the ball around to some of his new toys. Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr really open the middle up for the likes of Kirk, Parker Washington, and Evan Engram. Pre Lawrence injury the Jags were 6-0 away from Jacksonville, so playing on the road doesn’t bother my thought process. Miami should gel quickly, and they will be a team I look to back weeks 3-10, but I like the Jaguars chances Sunday afternoon before that happens.

Thank you,
Goose