2024 Sweet 16

Gonzaga -4.5 – HIT!
Texas A&M +10 – HIT!
4 in a row!

Leans
Illinois +1.5 v Iowa State but Iowa State was the 2seed in the Big12 and won the Big12 tourney – hard to bet against that wagon.
Tennessee -2.5 v Creighton because Creighton doesn’t usually mix with physicality but Creighton has such a good mix of talent that I can see them shooting their way around it.

Clemson +7.5 v Arizona
Styles make fights. Arizona is a very efficient offense and they want to get you in a track meet. Clemson has shown the ability to slow down these run-and-gun teams, beating Baylor last game, and winning at Alabama and at North Carolina this season. Clemson has size. Their top 2 minute getters are smaller guards but the rest of their core-seven are three 6foot8 guys and two 6foot10 guys. They take care of the ball, won’t go for too many offensive rebounds so they get back on defense, then will pack the paint and limit drives and transition layups. Nothing is easy against Clemson. Arizona’s defense is far from elite, so it’ll be up to Clemson to not have an “off” night. Once they hit shots at a rate they’ve been all season, they’ll set their defense up and shorten the game by having Arizona run an offense eating up clock. I fully expect Arizona to score, they have an A+ offense, but the pace of the game should create a frustrating grind out. Washington State played the same way as Clemson this year and Arizona went 0-2 versus them. On one end they’ve experienced a grind out, on the other, their kryptonite could be the pace monster. I’ll take the points and think we open Thursday up with a nail biter.

Houston -4.5 v Duke
The Houston A&M game ripped my heart out. We had the +10 spread but I also dabbled the +400 ML. A&M had such a good gameplan and I could go on and on how they should be here. But they aren’t and Houston looks to have a favorable matchup v Duke. Duke has done everything right beating their #13 and #12 seed they faced by an average of 78.5-51. Duke, and Houston, now jump up in class. I like to try and give arguments based off stats but I’ll start with a theory / vibe. I like backing a top seed after a huge scare if they get the weekend off. I knew when Houston beat Rutgers in 2020 they were going to buzzsaw through the second weekend, and I just have this feeling that Houston will double digit the next two teams they played. It’s sort of a “second chance” for them and I just feel I see teams go OFF after. I also like this matchup from a physicality standpoint. Duke is one of the most efficient crafty teams and say what you want to say about him, Kyle Filipkowski is a bucket. But what happens when the other team doesn’t let you breathe like Houston? Duke doesn’t turn the ball over, but they do not create turnovers, and they aren’t the best rebounding team. If Houston speeds up Duke, and it’s fair to assume they will as they speed up everyone, can Duke enhance their game in areas they normally don’t? If the shots don’t fall, can Duke muster up a rebound? Can they create a steal and get easy transition layups? Duke is 210th in percentage of shots in transition. I feel you have to meet Houston head-up like A&M did. If Duke doesn’t make hard contested shots, Houston should build their lead as I do not see Duke hitting a late run versus this style.

Thank you,
Goose