2024 Round of 32

Breaking news! Tim made it till 9pm this Friday Butch’s marathon!
Recap
Morehead State +11.5 v Illinois – Miss.
Kansas -8.5 v Samford – Miss.
Yale +13 v Auburn – HIT!
Texas A&M +1 v Nebraska – HIT!

Gonzaga -4 v Kansas
I had a great feeling that Kansas would score at will, but I didn’t think Kansas would give up 87 points. I am not expecting Kansas to score at will versus a more sound Gonzaga team. Samford got in a track meet, but Gonzaga plays at the 111th pace, very very neutral. Gonzaga is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation averaging 38.4 which is top40 and giving up only 31 which is top25. Gonzaga has the size to limit Dickinson who had 20 rebounds vs Samford. If you limit Kansas’s 2nd chance points, and bank that they’ll shoot their average of 33.3% from 3, then I see Kansas struggling to score. Gonzaga played Purdue, UConn, and Kentucky this OOC and gave up only an average of 28.3 rebounds to them. I think this physicality will wear out the 6 man Kansas rotation who is playing in elevation on short rest against a 8/9 man Gonzaga rotation. One thing that is normally a Kansas advantage is a wash in this matchup, and that’s coaching. Bill Self is a hall of fame coach who has a couple of national championships but Mark Few has the most tournament wins since 2010. Few knows how to navigate these quick turnaround weekends, and will use their physicality against Kansas’s short bench.

Texas A&M +10 v Houston
We’re running it back with A&M. Law of averages should expect some regression after going 13-23 from 3, but lets remember that since March 1 this A&M’s 3 point percentage has been on a steady rise in success. These two teams faced off in a neutral site game, which was located in Houston but at the Rockets stadium, not UH’s gym. Wade Taylor dropped 34 and the rest of the team shot 11-33 for 32 points. Houston has an excellent defense but the role players will have to step up. Texas A&M was also with their Robin, Tyrece Radford, who averages 16 points and had 20 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists vs Nebraska. Guard play is so key in March, and Texas A&M’s guards go toe-to-toe with Houstons. Houston has the best defense in the nation. They force turnovers and hold teams to such a low shooting percentage. Taylor and Radford have shown the ability to make the hard buckets to prevent a team like Houston going on a run. In two of the last four Houston games they only scored 60, and 41 points. Now, that 60 was a 60-45 win, but the way A&M has been playing in March I’d imagine they’d get more than 45. Houston is shooting 43.4% this year, or 232nd in the nation. I’m riding the guard play of A&M and taking the points in this one.

Thank you,
Goose