This. Is. MARCH! Hello my fellow Basketball degens, we made it! I’ve been less active on Twitter, but the group chat has been poppin since November with College Hoops plays. This past weekend I had my bachelor party (TURN UP!) and we picked college basketball championship weekend for all the sweats before the main sweat this weekend. My Cousin is a Boston College alum so we were all glued to the TV to watch them play Virginia. Virginia did Virginia things, and held Boston College to 5 points the last 10 minutes including overtime. It was crushing, but that’s hoops!
If any of my local readers want to sweat out plays together, this Friday is squad’s annual all day Butchs event. We’ll have about 4 to 8 guys at noon meet up at Butch Kowals, eating lunch and dinner there, leaving once we tap out.
Our first all day sweat was back in 2015, where it was just me and my friend Tim. That year was the RJ Hunter shot, where he hit the buzzer beater for #14 Georgia State to beat #3 Baylor. Butch Kowal’s is a classic dive-sports-bar where only your regulars are there for a 1:40pm game on a Thursday, and none of them truly even care that it’s March Madness. Me and Tim were freshly 21 for this tourney, and we went WILD once Hunter hit that 3. I felt like a King as I hyped up RJ Hunter for days and got Tim to bet Georgia State with me. Betting wasn’t big in Jersey in 2015, as you had to know a guy until 2018 to get a bet placed. We probably scared half the bar away that moment, screaming like we were Georgia State alums, but a tradition was born.
Now since we work and have some responsibilities, we always attempt the all day sweat on the first Friday of the tourney. This should’ve been our 10th annual, but since the tourney was canceled, this will be our 9th annual. It would be wrong for me not to tease Tim, who’s been with me every year, but he tapped out at 7pm last year so I’ll set his over/under at 6:59. I know I can’t drink like I used to so there will be little to no shots being taken, so I’ll stay at least till the end of the 3rd wave of games, approximately 10pm, watching the final wave in bed. But in our early 20s, we’d get there at 11:45am, and leave at 1am, only leaving the building to pick up lunch and dinner, both which were walking distance. The 6pm red bull and vodka recharge would slap like no other back then, and we’d find our 2nd, and even 3rd wind, to be there till 1am. God Bless the Butch’s bartenders for putting up with me those wild years! Nowadays water is my best friend, so it’ll be a sweat of a day, but not an obnoxious sweat.
Thursday 3:15pm Morehead State +11.5 v Illinois
The scary part of this bet is Illinois is 9-2 their last 11, with their two losses a choke job at Penn State in their small alternate gym, and a 6 point loss to #1 seed Purdue. Terrance Shannon Jr and Illinois are playing great basketball. Morehead State is 0-4 vs high major teams, including 0-3 to the Big Ten, losing at Purdue, at Penn State, and at Indiana. So why do I like Morehead? Well, Illinois averages 4.2 steals a game which ranks 351st out of 362. They’ll get some blocks, but Morehead gets their shot blocked 17th least in the Nation. Illinois likely won’t create turnovers vs this Morehead team, which should keep the game close. Morehead also does well shooting and defending the 3. They make and take 3s at a top50 rate, and remember there’s 362 Division 1 teams so top50 is very solid. Illinois is the best team in transition thanks to the electric Terrance Shannon Jr. If Morehead limits turnovers, then they should limit easy points. Morehead’s pace, which takes in things like possessions per game, ranks 342nd. The OVC is one of the fastest conferences, with 5 teams in the top100, so Morehead is used to a game plan of slowing down track meets. Illinois isn’t a bad shooting team at all, but if Morehead can match them, or slightly beat them in the number of 3s made, while limiting Illinois in transition, then I see a single point game on our hands.
Thursday 9:55pm Kansas -7.5 v Samford
BuckyBall is so fun to watch, and I wish Samford was playing like a Duke, not a Kansas who thrives in transition. Samford will play 10 men, sub often, and run run and run. Assuming Kevin McCullars is still out but Hunter Dickinson is in, Kansas will counter with only 7 men. Achor Achor is a really exciting player, but he’s 6foot9 225 pounds, and most of the time this is their center. Samford will either have to double Hunter Dickinson or go zone. Many will think that with Kansas’s poor shooting that they are bad against a zone. Kansas has the 2nd most points per possession vs zone this year, as their creative passing leads to easy layups. You can pack the paint all you want, but the 7foot2 Dickinson will find a way to get an easy one. Samford is one of the more zone-heavy teams, going in it 30% of the game. They are also one of the more press heavy teams, and good teams like Kansas break the press with quick layups. Samford’s pace can really work against them on Thursday night. This is their biggest game of their lives, and their coach subs like he’s making line switches in hockey. It keeps his players fresh, and he’s done an amazing job in the regular season, but this is March Madness with increased pressure and eyes, so it’ll be hard for his team to get in a rhythm. Samford is a fairly high turnover team, ranking 312th in the Nation, so good luck getting in a track meet with Kansas. Kansas flat out can’t shoot, but I see so many easy layups, off turnovers, breaking a press, and off a zone, that I think Kansas will mask their shooting very well. I’m looking to back Kansas here even though they are a flawed team who lost their last two games by a combined 148-98.
Friday 4:15pm Yale +13 v Auburn
Last year we saw #15 Princeton defeat an offensive juggernaut in #2 Arizona. Arizona scored 55 points that game, thanks to Princeton dictating tempo slowing things down. This year’s Ivy league team Yale plays with a similar tempo as Princeton, and they are facing their own offensive juggernaut in Auburn. Auburn’s defense is crazy fast and aggressive. Auburn will foul you, they average 19 fouls a game which is bottom 25, but they also want teams to eat shot clock forcing bad shots. Auburn is #2 in opponents field goal percentage, holding teams to 38.4%. If the possession doesn’t end in a foul, Auburn will hope to force a late second shot. But this plays into Yale’s favor, as they want the game in the 50s and 60s, and get to the last 2 minutes where anything can happen. Yale wants to eat shot clock, and hit back cuts while Auburn sells out for a steal. Auburn is actually 1-5 in single digit games this season, with their lone close win coming 2 games ago vs Mississippi State. Yale has shown the ability all season to take efficient shots and play a clean game so I don’t expect 15+ turnovers from them, as they average 9.4 which is 11th best in the Nation. If Auburn cannot force turnovers, they should gift Yale plenty of points on the foul line. I have high respect for Auburn, I’m going to take them in my Final Four in my bracket, but I’ll also take the points this game and sprinkle Yale moneyline almost as a hedge.
Friday 6:55pm Texas A&M +1 v Nebraska
Fred Hoiberg has done an excellent job at Nebraska, going 7-25 7-20 10-22 16-16 and now 23-10. Their climb reminds me so much of what Rutgers climb was under Coach Pikiell. He will be looking to lead Nebraska to their first ever NCAA tournament win, and increase his own tourney record which is at 2-4. They’ll take on Texas A&M led by superstar Wade Taylor. What Wade Taylor will we see though? The one who averaged 25.66 in 6 tourney games (SEC and November’s Feast week)? Or the Wade Taylor who averaged 17.46 in the 28 other games? Wade Taylor is a spotlight player and I think he’s ready to carry his team for a little run. Texas A&M is a flawed team, well aren’t all #9 seeds flawed? But they have some great things going for them. I’ll start with rebounding, as they are the #1 total rebounding and offensive rebounding team in the nation. Nebraska actually gives up the 7th most offensive rebounds in Division 1, so while A&M isn’t the most efficient offensive team, I expect them to dominate the boards. A&M doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, averaging 9.6 turnovers which is 17th best. Nebraska generates only 11.6 turnovers a game, so expect a clean one from A&M. A&M’s kryptonite has been their 3 point shooting. They are bottom 10 at 28.4%, but since March, where they are 5-1, they are shooting 36.6%. Remove the March stretch and they were shooting 26.8% from 3. I know it’s a smaller sample size, but they can go toe-to-toe with anyone when they shoot 35% from 3. Nebraska’s defensive philosophy is they dare teams to shoot from the outside. Teams make on average 8.8 3’s which ranks 332nd in the Nation. Teams shoot only 33.9% from downtown against Nebraska, but they give up such a high volume. This matchup should be primed for a Wade Taylor masterclass, and if his supporting cast can hit some open looks, crash the boards like they normally do, and keep it clean like a typical A&M game, then the Aggies should have a rematch booked with Houston in the round of 32.
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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