Volume Championships

The Josh Allen discourse after the Bills loss is just wild to me. He is the SECOND best Quarterback in football, with only the GOAT Patrick Mahomes better. Yes, I think Josh Allen is fairly clear ahead of Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is fantastic, in no way do I want to disrespect him in this argument, but he’s not Josh Allen. Let’s start with “But Joe Burrow went to a Super Bowl, but Joe Burrow beat Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes already in the playoffs.” I forgot Nick Foles is the greatest QB to walk this Earth because he and the Eagles beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Let’s really dive into Joe Burrow’s Super Bowl run, which obviously is an accomplishment that Josh Allen does not have. Wild Card weekend vs the Raiders Burrow played well throwing for 244 and 2 touchdowns, but it says something to me that the Bengals were able to win by settling for 4 field goals. He followed up the Divisional round throwing for 348 yards but 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and again settled for 4 field goals. Fast forward to the AFC Championship game, where the Bengals beat the Chiefs, something Allen and the Bills haven’t done, and Burrow’s Bengals again settled for 4 field goals! That’s 3 wins, 12 field goals. Burrow is great, but not many teams win in the playoffs settling for field goals. He has a great defense supporting him, something Allen also has, but the Bills were decimated with injury when they played the Chiefs last week.
In Josh Allen’s 10 playoff games he threw for 21 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and rushed for 5 touchdowns. He averages 272 yards passing and 56 yards rushing. Dawg, these are insane stats! Joe Burrow, in 7 playoff games, has thrown for 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and rushed 1 in. He averages 261 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. Again, Burrow played in a Super Bowl, something Allen hasn’t, but Allen is doing much more with less. Evan McPherson in those 7 playoff games is a smooth 19-19 in field goals and 12-13 in extra points. Bills kickers are 16-21 in field goals and 27-30 in extra points. Let’s also factor in defense. Burrow is blessed with a great DC in Lou Anarumo, who’s held opponents to 18.8 points a game, and the Bills talented but often hurt defense has given up an average of 24.8 points a game. We’re asking Josh Allen to be 6 points better than Burrow to get the ultimate result of a win. All of this isn’t even taken into account the supporting cast. I really like the Bills supporting cast, the OC switch to Joe Brady got Allen under center more and established James Cook. This season Cook = Mixon, but that’s 1 out of 5 playoff runs. Steff Diggs has been high level, but who are YOU taking? Diggs and Gabe Davis, or Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins. C’mon now, Chase and Higgins clear them.
All in All, football is a team game, with quarterback being the most important position. Burrow and his cast, offense, defense, and special teams, made plays. Allen’s defense gave up the field goal v the Chiefs with 13 seconds left, a game Allen and the boys put up 36 and he threw for 4 touchdowns. Last week Allen was met with some key drops, none bigger than a near perfect 55 yard bomb to Diggs. The goal in football is to score more points than the other team. Soon to be Hall of Famer Chris Jones made a legacy play bull rushing his opponent into Josh Allen, to alter the 30 yard touchdown pass that went incomplete. Give Allen that quarter more second and it’s 31-27 with 90 seconds left. “But Goose, TOO MUCH TIME.” Dawg, is it not a priority to score?! “But Goose, Diggs was open on the checkdown.” Nice give me a 5 yard gain, because the safety was breaking on Diggs, over Shakir fairly open in the endzone. Josh Allen has to be more perfect than other QBs to gain the respect of the masses. He’s the second best Quarterback in football, but his window closes every year. Will he win the big one? I cannot answer that. Has he made mistakes? Yes, well more so in the regular season, but that’s not here nor there. Football is a team game and only Mahomes impacts the game more from a QB standpoint than Allen. Joe Burrow is excellent, and Lamar Jackson who I didn’t even talk about is amazing, but give me Allen all things equal.

Recap
Texans +9.5 – Miss.
Niners -9.5 – Miss.
Lions -6.5 – HIT!
Chiefs +2.5 … hit …
NFL 20-13-4
NCAAF 7-7-1

Ravens -4 v Chiefs
Now I did just rant about Josh Allen … but I’m not salty and the rant has no effect on me betting against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, one of the best in the NFL, but the Ravens are a wagon on defense. It was my mistake to realize this when I thought the Texans would cover last week. Last week we mentioned Travis Kelce would have his way v the void in the Bills middle. This week Kelce will have the best safety Kyle Hamilton on him. Kelce is arguably the GOAT tight end, but he’s 34 and Hamilton is a superstar. Mahomes and the Chiefs will really have to rely on Rashee Rice and Pacheco. As strong as Pacheco is, Michael Pierce is a unit at 345 pounds and Justin Madubuike as the strong end is going to make a lot of money this offseason. On top of that, all-pro Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen always dominate at the linebacker position, and Oweh and Clowney have been very strong off the edge. Jawaan Taylor has been a weak spot for the Chiefs offensive line, so I think Oweh or Clowney, whoever lines up over the Right Tackle, will be an impact maker. The Ravens gave up 10 to the Texans last week, 19 to the Dolphins and Niners late in the year, and 7 to the Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes is still on the Chiefs, and the Chiefs do look to be playing their best offense, but man this defense will be hard to crack.
Lamar Jackson has run slightly less this season, but I really hope he uses his legs on Sunday. Josh Allen was able to rush for 70 yards on 12 carries, 2 of those being sneaks. The Chiefs strength is their secondary, and the physical Ravens should be able to run on them. Mark Andrews returns this week, and even if he isn’t 100% Isaiah Likely is still a mismatch. Zay Flowers is pretty gadgety, with a lot of screens, as a receiver. The Chiefs secondary shouldn’t impact this unique Ravens scheme too much. They are run, tight end, and wr screen based, which will be interesting matchups for McDuffie and Sneed. Lamar was electric last week, he should have quieted down the poor playoff narratives, and this Sunday is another test. Ultimately, I hope my Rutgers boys PAcheco and Gus Edwards score, but I think it will be the Ravens representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Ravens 25 Chiefs 20

Niners -7.5 v Lions
Me and America will be rooting for the Lions. But, I think it’s a Niners by double digit spot. And no, none of this has to do with Jared Goff’s tiny hands and him being outdoors this weekend, because it’ll be high 60s with 3 mph “winds.” Let’s start with Brock Purdy. We all saw him struggle in the rain last week v the Packers. His stat line still resulted in 252 yards 1 touchdown 0 interceptions on 59%. Remember, that’s his struggle stat line. He’ll now go against a Lions team who has one of the worst secondaries in the league. There definitely is a concern that a Lion bites a knee cap resulting in a Kittle injury, but you cannot predict injury. Deebo Samuel is back at practice, Christian McCaffrey is as efficient as ever, and Aiyuk is due to explode. Again, even on a struggle week, the Niners scored 24 points. The Niners averaged 29 points this season, and the Lions playoff opponents the Rams averaged 23.8 and Bucs 20.5. The Rams and Bucs scored 23 against the Lions, both of those teams were on the road. It is fair to think the Niners will reach 30 on Sunday. Can the Lions match though? The running duo of Gibbs and Montgomery probably liked to see Aaron Jones average 6 yards a carry. A big loss for the Lions will be left guard Jonah Jackson. His replacement was getting dominated by Vita Vea and the strong Bucs DLine. Center Frank Ragnow will play it looks like, but he won’t be 100%. Nick Bosa and Chase Young are enough to worry about on the edge, but a weak middle of the Lions vs Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. The x-factor of the Lions Niners game will be Dan Campbell. He is the most aggressive coach in the league. Will he continue that philosophy with a Super Bowl birth on the line? Will his risks pay off? Or will an unneeded risk result in a key swing in favor of the Niners. Last year the Niners season was snatched due to injury, but this year, if they stay healthy, they should snatch this game from the Lions
Niners 34 Lions 24

Thank you,
Goose