Volume Divisional

Recap
Dolphins +4.5 – Miss.
Eagles -3 – Miss.
NFL 18-11-4
NCAAF 7-7-1

I like to get my articles out on Friday around noon, and I might get this one out at noon but its 9:22am and I’m getting my first words out. This also means all of the early movement has settled and I should have enough injury news to make some educated guesses! We went 0-2 in official plays and 1-2 in my non official, with the Steelers voided from the change of date. 1-4 overall, rough weekend! Let’s get right in to it.

Ravens -9.5 v Texans
The Play: Texans +9.5
I’ll pat myself on the back for my Texans write-up because it wasn’t pretty for the next two games… But I did think the Texans DLine would cause Flacco turnovers and I did say a star would be born in CJ Stroud!
I do like the Texans to keep this one close. The Texans have a strong defensive line thanks to two defensive tackle anchors. This Ravens offense is so lethal but I like the Texans to take out Gus Edwards in this one. Keith Mitchell’s season ended a few weeks ago so to limit the main RB up the middle should be a big boost. There’s something about the playoffs and seeing the worst of Lamar Jackson, and honestly it could be tied to OC Greg Roman who is no longer in Baltimore. But, Lamar hasn’t had a playoff start since the 2020 season, and in four games he has thrown for three touchdowns, ran for one, and threw five interceptions. New OC Todd Monkin has spread the Ravens out more and Lamar has benefitted, but we have a bad postseason history here and Lamar hasn’t played in two weeks. Rest is key, but rust is always a concern. Stroud is firing on all cylinders and the Ravens will be without CB #1 Marlon Humpfrey. I’m sure there will be a lot of attention on Nico Collins, but the Stroud to Collins combo has been one of the best, which also opens up lanes to the other pass catchers. The way to attack this Ravens team will be on the ground, as their pass defense stats are A+ but they do give up a 7th worse 4.5 yards per carry. In Devin Singletary’s last ten games he’s averaging 16.7 carries for 75.5 yards and scoring a touchdown every other game. A key will be to give Singletary 20 touches on Saturday just to keep the Ravens defensive line on their toes, respecting the pass. I don’t think the Texans can pull this one out, but a slow Ravens first quarter, mixed with Stroud’s brilliance, and I think we get a nail biter.
Ravens 24 Texans 21

Niners -9.5 v Packers
The Play: Niners -9.5
Last week I completely disrespected Jaire Alexander and he came up with a big interception vs the Cowboys. I didn’t call out his play on the field, but I did call out his one game suspension, and the Packers youth having no leadership. They destroyed the Cowboys and honestly I was impressed. Despite what my eyes saw last week, I like the Niners here. The Niners are a juggernaut when Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel play. Yes the Packers got to Dak, but I find it hard to envision them really getting to Purdy. Purdy gets the ball out so quick and follows Shannahan’s reads. Dak was hesitant until garbage time and the PAckers pounced. We saw in the middle of the season the Bills run all over the Cowboys. It was a miss by me not thinking Aaron Jones would run all over the Cowboys last week. You don’t run all over the Niners like that though, they actually have a defense with a backbone and aren’t all speed. Jordan Love can sling it and has done a great job of taking care of the ball, but the physicality and speed of the Niners front seven is a problem for most. I do not expect wide open receivers down the field, or huge lanes for Aaron Jones. The Packers will have to earn their points on Saturday. To beat the Niners you have to turn them over like the Ravens did on Christmas. The Packers average 1.1 turnovers a game which is 23rd in the league. The Packers had a great finish to their season, and I think the Niners send them packing.
Niners 31 Packers 20

Lions -6.5 v Bucs
The Play: Lions -6.5
Another team I disrespected was the Tampa Bay Bucs. I thought talent would prevail for the Eagles, and I thought the Bucs were frauds. Boy was I wrong! Baker is a gamer, and the Bucs showed no mercy. I was also really impressed with the Lions this weekend. The Lions first three drives all went for 75 yards and they scored a touchdown on each of them. The Lions offense slowed down, but in the second half when it mattered they made Stafford punt twice and settle for two field goals. The Lions have so much talent on offense and this helps them sustain some good long drives. Do you defend the run? Will the run be power or speed? Do you play for a pass? Load up over the middle on AmonRa? Or LaPorta? But what about Reynolds and Jameo Williams over the top? The Lions offense strikes all three levels of the field and keeps you guessing. The Lions will run on anyone, but it’ll be wise to attack Tampa through the air. The Bucs just don’t have the dudes to slow down “indoor Jared Goff.” Sure, he might have one mistake, eight interceptions in twelve domed games, but three came on that weird Thanksgiving game, and two on the road vs the speed of the Cowboys. Five in two games, three in the other ten. The Bucs are 6-1 in their last seven, rolling in hot! But they only have four interceptions in that stretch, two vs the lost Trevor Lawrence, one vs Desmond Midder, and one vs Bryce Young. Goff isn’t a superstar, but if he can just get the ball to his stars, the Lions offense will score points. It’ll be up to Baker to match.
Lions 35 Bucs 27

Bills -2.5 v Chiefs
The Play: Chiefs +2.5
This matchup is so fascinating on many levels! Taylor Swift (Travis Kelce’s girlfriend) and the Chiefs take on Hailee Steinfeld (Josh Allen’s girlfriend) and the Bills. Personally I’m giving the advantage to Steinfeld as she’s more versatile being a singer and an actress to Taylor’s only a singer. We also have Kermit the Frog and the Chiefs vs Peppa Pig and the Bills. While the Josh Allen / Peppa Pig commercial was A+, Kermit’s (Patrick Mahomes look-a-like) muppets have the most underrated show at Disney World with Muppet Vision 3D at Hollywood Studios. Advantage Kermit. But I’m sure everyone except me is tired of the pop culture references so let’s see what we have on the field.
The Bills are banged up. CB1 Rasul Douglas has returned to practice after missing the last two weeks and All-Pro Nickel corner Taron Johnson is practicing in limited fashion despite being in concussion protocol. It’s more than likely CB#2 Christian Benford, breakout linebacker Terrel Bernard, and safety Taylor Rapp will miss the game as they’ve yet to practice. Big threat receiver Gabe Davis will also miss for this Bills offense. The Chiefs have their best defense in the Patrick Mahomes era and have two great cornerbacks leading the way. I’m expecting another quiet game from Stefon Diggs, with the Bills chopping away with their dual tight ends, James Cook, and letting Josh Allen do Josh Allen things. I’d look to attack James Cook over receptions since Diggs and Khalil Shakir will have to deal with Trent Mcduffie and L’Jarius Sneed. The Chiefs offense doesn’t make explosive plays but they’ve added a physicality which sometimes trips up the speed of the Bills. Isaih Pacheco is a playoff style back, Rashee Rice has developed to make plays in the intermediate, and despite the drops Travis Kelce is still one of one. As I mentioned, breakout linebacker Terrel Bernard is probably out for the Bills so the middle of the field is Kelce’s for the taking. He might not rip off big yardage plays anymore but he’ll be good to move the chains when you need that seven yard gain. I want the Bills to win this weekend, I do think the game being in Buffalo helps, but the Bills defense is too banged up for my liking. Chiefs squeak by Sunday night.
Chiefs 24 Bills 23

Thank you,
Goose