Recap
Bears -3 v Falcons – HIT!
Ravens -3 v Dolphins – HIT!
Washington +4 v Texas – HIT!
NFL 18-9-4
NCAAF 7-7-1
Holey Moley what a college football semi finals! Week 18 I kinda half forgot kinda half didn’t have a play. And I had a Washington future riding on the Natty but I knew deep down inside it was a Michigan game. Physicality is back and Michigan moved them boys around.
This postseason I will talk about every game, some in depth more than others. I will make it clear which side I’m betting IF I’m betting that game. There’s only 13 more football games this season if I’m counting correctly so I’ll make the most of it!
Browns -2.5 at Texans
Joe Flacco is playing like he has nothing to lose, and well in fairness what does he have to lose? The aging QB was chilling in the beginning part of the season and is getting another chance due to injury with the Browns. He has eight turnovers in five games this season including two a few weeks ago against this Texans team. Flacco isn’t the most mobile quarterback, this is nothing groundbreaking, so if this very good Texans DLine can get to him I expect them to steal possessions. Will Anderson is banged up but the DROY should go, and DE Jonathan Greenland had 12.5 sacks. More importantly, the DT duo of Rankins and Collins combined for 11 sacks which is a lot up the middle. Both on the injury report, both should go, and the duo is my x-factor. If the Texans can get Stroud extra possessions I truly do believe that the rookie can lead them. This Browns defense is elite, but Stroud has “it” which is the highest compliment I could give to a quarterback. College success does not translate to NFL success, but the last playoff game Stroud was a part of was last year’s Peach Bowl vs #1 Georgia where Stroud went 23/34 for 348 yards 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The QB has shown me the bright lights won’t affect him. Now, as I mentioned, this Browns defense is loaded with talent, which is another beast, but Stroud welcomes the bright lights. Stroud’s rookie year was 15 games, he threw 3 interceptions vs the Cardinals, and 2 interceptions through the rest of his 14 games. The key will be if the Texans can continue to turnover Flacco, and if they do, they will win this game, and a new star will be born.
Texans 27 Browns 24
Chiefs -4.5 v Dolphins
The Play: Dolphins +4.5
The Miami Dolphins are 0-9 and 2-7 ats in football games below 40 degrees since 2017. Expected kickoff temperature is 0 degrees … This stat is being thrown around, but I’m paying no attention to it. Tua was drafted in 2020, Tua wasn’t the QB he is till last season, Tyreek Hill hasn’t been a part of this team since 2017, and heck Coach McDaniel’s first year was last year. This team has one running back who’s had 1175 total yards and 21 touchdowns and their other running back averaging 7.8 yards a carry! The Dolphins may or may not win, but when it’s super cold out I tend to lean on running teams. Rutgers own Isiah Pacheco is a BEAST for Kansas City, but I’m liking the Dolphins run game more. The Dolphins currently have no pass rushers, they are all hurt and signing guys off the street. You need to pressure Patrick Mahomes, he is a wizard, but his receivers have a hard time getting open and catching the ball. If the Dolphins load up on Travis Kelce, maybe putting Jalen Ramsey on him, then I think the Dolphins can survive without a pass rush, especially since their team as a whole, thanks to anchor Christian Wilkins, has done a decent job defending the run. In the playoffs every possession matters. The Chiefs have been a postseason staple, always at least making the AFCGC. The Chiefs have always scared me in the Redzone thanks to Andy Reid’s style. There is no more Eric Bienemy, instead there’s Matt Nagy, who’s Reid’s guy, but man this duo gets so darn cute in the redzone. Patrick Mahomes is one of one, Kelce is the best receiving tight end of all time, but give me Dolphins run game and let me fade Matt Nagy. I’m aware we felt McDaniel appeared overwhelmed (and vaping?) last year in the playoffs, but that was with a 3rd string QB. I trust him to muster up enough points, especially with the track meet speed they have.
Dolphins 24 Chiefs 21
Bills -10 v Steelers
On one end I think the Bills are going to the Super Bowl. On the other, I think arguably the worst team in the playoffs, a team without their super star edge guy in TJ Watt, that the Steelers are live dogs. It’s as simple as, 20mph winds with gusts whipping, snow in the forecast, and the Steelers have two good running backs. When I think of the Buffalo Bills I think of their speed and finesse. Josh Allen might be run with his shoulders down, but him and Cook give me a spread it and finesse vibe. These kind of games are the reason why the Steelers took Najee Harris in the first round, and now have Jaylen Warren spelling him. Keep the ball on the ground, get lucky with a run or two, and make the Bills mess up to keep you close. There might not be TJ Watt but the Steelers are still led by Coach Tomlin and have Minkah Fitzpatrick being the quarterback of the defense. Let’s also not forget, the Bengals punked the Bills out of the playoffs last year. This feels like a different Bills team, but the weather is playing into the Steelers favor for this one to be gritty and ugly.
Bills 14 Steelers 7
Cowboys -7 v Packers
When the Packers lost at home to the Bucs to go 6-8 their season looked dark, but they rattled off three straight wins to make the playoffs. Three straight wins, this team is hot! Well, they went to the worst team Carolina, gave up 30 but won 33-30, they went to divisional foe Minnesota Vikings who played both Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens, and they took care of business at home v the Bears, which I’ll give them that they held the Bears to 9 points. They will go to Jerry World where the Cowboys are 8-0 at home winning on average of 37-16. The Cowboys have a communication issue when on the road, but they won’t have to worry about that this week. Let’s also ask how serious this Packers team is. Jaire Alexander got suspended a few weeks ago because he went out for the coin toss at Carolina, because he is from the area so he felt entitled to do so. He botched the coin toss selection, and no teammates stopped him. He might not even play this week due to injury, but this is the youngest team since the 1974 Bills to make the playoffs, and to me they have no leaders. They have talent, they have a good coach, but this is the playoffs now and the game gets a little different. Dak Prescott was a top3 quarterback this year, best in the NFC, and I think they handle business vs the young 7 seed. The backdoor will always be open for a late Packers cover, so even though I think the Cowboys handle this one, I won’t be betting it.
Cowboys 31 Packers 17
Lions -3 v Rams
I told myself for weeks I’m taking the Rams if they played the Lions. Now that the time is here, I think I’m ready to pivot. Breaking news, Jared Goff has small hands and plays better in a domed stadium. Well, to his luck, the Lions are home and in a dome this weekend. Goff and the Lions are averaging 30.5 points indoors this year compared to 18.8 on the road. I’m not ready to fade the Lions just yet, especially with how much juice should be in that stadium. They will take on a hot Rams team who is 7-1 their last eight. Two of those wins were vs playoff teams, the first game of Joe Flacco’s Browns run, and a game vs the 49ers where it was Wentz v Darnold. I’m not calling the Rams frauds by any stretch, but I’m not going to gas this 7-1 stretch. Matt Stafford played seven road games this year throwing for 11 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and was sacked 15 times. Home Jared Goff > Road Matthew Stafford. The Rams have Aaron Donald and rookie Kobie Turner creating havoc up the middle, combining for 17 sacks. The Lions interior offensive line has looked suspect at times this season, but the three of Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, and Graham Glasnow will play Sunday and for this time of the year are relatively healthy. This will help keep Jared Goff upright, and get the Lions run game going. David Montgomery will earn the hard yards, and Gibbs’ speed should be able to move through this Rams defense. Sometimes the common pick wins, and I feel EVERYONE is on the Rams, but give me “home Jared Goff” in a lower than expected score thanks to some good running backs.
Lions 24 Rams 20
Eagles -3 at Bucs
The Play: Eagles -3
The Eagles are 1-5 in their last six and AJ Brown might not play Monday night yet I still like the Eagles in this one. Monday night has its positives and has its negatives. On one end you get an extra day of rest, on the other, you most likely go to the 1 seed after to play a team that had a bye, where you get short rest. Baker Mayfield is thrilled to play on Monday though, as he has ankle and rib injuries to heal. He even called it a “blessing” when he met with the media this weekend. He’ll play, just like Jalen Hurts, but both are banged up. Which is why I’m not panicking about the Eagles and their injuries, every team is banged up, and every team is 0-0 again. The Eagles will face a strong run defense in the Bucs, but they play some physical football themselves. The Eagles still have Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and in a majority of categories the Bucs have a bottom five pass defense. If Jalen Hurts, banged up finger and all, can’t move the ball vs this pass defense, then convos will be had if last year was a fluke. Another reason I am backing the road favorite is Tampa Bay is 4-4 at home this year scoring on average 17.5 points a game, where their road points jump to 23.5 points a game. 6 more points on the road is a big jump, but I’m not believing home field will carry much weight Monday night. Baker Mayfield torched the Jaguars 3 weeks ago, but since then they scored 13 points at the Saints and 9 v the Panthers. This Bucs offense isn’t exactly humming either, so I’m riding with Philly in this one.
Eagles 24 Bucs 17
3 Dogs, 3 Favorites, Dolphins +4.5 and Eagles -3 as the official plays. BOL!
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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