Volume Seventeen

Recap
NFL 16-9-4
NCAAF 6-7-1

Maybe my brain wasn’t as foggy as I thought. My leans went 4-1 on a week where we gave out no official plays.

Thursday December 28 2:15pm
Rutgers -2.5 v Miami
The line has been shifting the last few days in Rutgers favor, and it all makes sense to me. Stuckey, at Action Network, does an amazing job giving us a layout of who isn’t playing in each bowl game (https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more). If you compare Rutgers absences to Miami’s Rutgers is close to a full participant while Miami has their mind elsewhere. Now, this doesn’t mean Rutgers will win, but it explains the line movement.
This Rutgers team still feels there’s something to prove. Practically the whole team is returning next season along with the Head Coach and Coordinators. QB Gavin Wimsatt said he doesn’t plan on transferring despite Rutgers bringing in a transfer QB. Which makes the Pinstripe Bowl sort of a tryout / last remarks before Spring kind of game. But where I think Rutgers will win is the other side of the ball. Miami will be down to their 3rd string QB, which means I expect a heavy dose of their running attack which is pretty strong in itself. Rutgers has thrived off of primary running teams and struggled vs air raid esce systems. I also think Miami’s loss of their Center and Left Guard doesn’t help their inexperienced QB or run attack. Rutgers defensive tackles aren’t the biggest, but they catch a break playing back ups. The Rutgers defense should come out guns blazing in the first half. They were battle tested this season and started to get worn out but they haven’t played in a month and hopefully their bodies healed. We saw what Tualia did to Rutgers last month, but Miami doesn’t have a Tualia back there calling the shots. With any defensive based team it’ll come down to if they can actually score. As I just noted with the rest, Kyle Monangai just got a few weeks to heal up and Sam Brown said he is finally feeling healthy. Rutgers was able to run on some of these Big ten teams, they should be able to run on Miami. I’m not expecting much in the air but it will help that when they do take their shots that Miami will be down 3 starters in the secondary. The culture Schiano has installed in this program, mixed with Miami missing some players and the Florida boys spending Christmas away in the Northeast has me thinking Rutgers pulls this one out.
Rutgers 24 Miami 20

Monday January 1 8:45pm
Washington +4.5 v Texas
I have this line as a true pickem. Coach Sark is a hellova coach for Texas, but I view Coach DeBoer just slightly better. These teams have two high powered offenses but Washington’s feel more fluid. This time off I believe helps Washington more. Was Micahel Penix banged up as the season went on? I think so. His stats hit a lull but the team kept winning. We all rave about Rome Odunze, and rightfully so, but preseason it was Rome Odunze AND Jalen McMillan. McMillan missed most of the season but it was his 9 catches for 131 yards vs Oregon that were critical. Adding a second go-to receiver, paired with the best offensive line in the Nation, this Washington team should be just fine scoring points. I’ll give Washington’s offense the nod vs Texas especially with Jonathon Brooks unfortunate acl injury. Texas has gone 3-0 since the star RB went down, but Washington is a different beast than Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. I’m Quinn Ewers #1 fan but in skill weapons and offensive line, Washington clears. You could argue who the better QB is, I think Quinn will be a great pro but give me Penix in his system for the college level. This game should feature plenty of fireworks so I won’t talk about really talk about defense, but you have to give the edge to Texas with Washington’s being as swiss as they are. I don’t think either defense will make many if any stops, but I could see Texas moreso than Washington shooting themselves in the foot on a critical play. Washington converts more 3rd downs at 47.97% compared to 38.51%, they convert more 4th down plays at 73.33% compared to 63.33% and when the ball gets in the redzone, Washington capitalizes more and scores 85.94% compared to Texas’s 80%. I’ll take the better coached team who seems to pay attention to the little details more. Give me Washington
Washington 38 Texas 35

Sunday December 31 1pm
Bears -3 v Falcons
I feel like the Bears took a lot of heat for the Montez sweat trade, heck I was surprised they gave up a 2nd for a soon to be free agent. But, their defense really has improved since they made that deal. Since the move they are giving up a hair under 18 points a game and are taking the ball away twice a game. The Falcons bounced back vs the Colts last week, but I don’t think that’ll happen again at Chicago. The Colts defense has been one to give up points, and this was the first game with Heinicke back as a starter. The team was amped playing a vulnerable foe. Sunday will be a standard Chicago December day, low 30s with a decent 10mph breeze. Yes the Falcons have Bijan and Allgeier to move the chains, but this indoor team led by Taylor Heinicke should have a hard time moving the ball vs a strong Bears front. Justin Fields may not be Chicago’s starter next year (he’d look great in Atlanta …) so he’s just trying to ball out for his next team … (who will be his opponent). All in all, the coach and the QB have a lot riding on these two games, coach to keep his job, Fields to show he is a starter in the league, and the team loves Fields. DJ Moore publicly supports Fields, so even though the Bears are eliminated, I expect them to play as hard as if a playoff berth is on the line.
Bears 20 Falcons 14

Sunday December 31 1pm
Ravens -3.5 v Dolphins
This is a scary pick when it feels like we are buying high on the Niners. The Ravens just traveled West Coast, made the Niners game personal, and now have to play on one day shorter rest vs the Dolphins. But with Jaylen Waddle should be out for the Dolphins I’m just skeptical when they play what’s looked at as a good team. The Dolphins lost to the Bills Eagles and Chiefs, and beat the Cowboys in Miami by two, where the teams played such an even game minus Dallas wasting their opening 15 play drive fumbling at the 2 yard line. The Dolphins winning in Baltimore would shut me right up, but I’m liking Lamar’s chances.
As I mentioned Jaylen Waddle most likely won’t be playing Sunday. Additionally, De’Von Achane has been playing but has disappeared as of late. In his last 3 games he has 23 carries for 103 yards and 0 touchdowns. When Raheem Mostert went down vs the Cowboys, who should be playing at Baltimore but won’t be 100% healthy, the Dolphins mixed in a good amount of
Jeff Wilson. Achane in a way has been their gadget, change of pace guy, but it’s looking like he isn’t 100%. For as good as Tua and Ty Hill have been, the Dolphins win on the ground. Their backs aren’t 100% and their OLine has been beat up. Baltimore’s defense swarms and makes plays, we just say them pick off Brock Purdy 4 times, and I think Tua will have a hard time being as effective as he’s been. The Ravens offense has been clicking as of late. They aren’t a big yards team, they won’t throw it deep, but Lamar’s arm and legs have been moving these chains. Jalen Ramsey is still an elite corner, but a lot of what the Ravens do is short quick stuff to Flowers and Odell. These are the 2 leading sack teams in the NFL, but I think it’ll be hard for Miami to get Lamar on the ground. You have to respect the run for Baltimore and the ball gets out quick. When it doesn’t, it’s backyard football and no DLineman is as fast as Lamar. The Ravens are playing clean football and are moving the chains. This game might look different in the playoffs if Miami gets healthy, but right now give me the Ravens.
Ravens 28 Dolphins 21

Thank you,
Goose