Let’s have a weekend! Before football I have some things to cook up! Friday night I will be decorating my Christmas tree. We’ve been getting an eight foot tree for the last few years but I kept wanting to go bigger with the twelve foot ceilings. We have a ten foot tree for me to decorate this weekend! I kept telling my parents soon enough Shannon and I will have our own house and our own tree. I’ll always help my parents with their tree, but while I’m not married let’s go all out while I’m home. I’ve been looking forward to the Saturday NFL slate for few weeks, as it usually brings good company. Saturday I will start my day off golfing 18 instead as many of my friends were busy. Sure it’ll be 44 degrees when we tee off and only get up to 53 degrees, but 50s is doable for December golf. This has been my worst year in golf since I graduated college and I’ve constantly blamed my weight. Little flex but after ballooning up to 258 I’ve been at a steady 228 the last month. I feel better, my clothes fit better, and I won’t be able to blame my gut getting in the way of my swing now. Still some work to do, but I have some confidence back, and that should carry over to the golf game. After my 10am round it’s right to get some lunch and watch some football! In mjy five fantasy leagues I’m 1seed, 1seed, 2seed, 2seed, 3seed. In two of those 1/2 seed’s there are no playoff bye’s so I have three playoff matchups I have to win, and the journey starts Saturday!
Recap
Raiders +3 – Push.
Giants +6.5 – HIT! Tommy Cutlets!
NFL 14-8-4
NCAAF 5-5-1
Beware of Bowl Season! The transfer portal is crazy and some teams are missing 10+ players. Some teams want to end the season off with a win and a bowl ring and some are either checked out or just happy to be on vacation. I will still bet on bowl games but there’s a chance I can catch a dud of a squad.
Saturday December 16 3:30pm
Miami Ohio +6.5 v Appalachian State
Miami Ohio is down to their 3rd string QB, as starter Brett Gabbert is hurt and their backup who started the last five games will transfer. The backup was averaging 15 rushes a game, so they already were winning without airing it out. It’s the defense of Miami Ohio which got them here and why I think they win. If you take out week 1’s matchup vs U of Miami, Miami Ohio gave up 14.3 points per game. They will take on a high powered Appalachian State team, but their star running back will transfer. To me, that’s a bigger loss than being on your 3rd string QB, since Miami Ohio wasn’t slinging it around anyways, but App State likes to be balanced so this changes how they want to play. Give me the MAC Champs who’s been facing adversity long before the Bowl game transfer drama.
Miami Ohio 20 App State 17
Saturday December 16 5:45pm
New Mexico State -3.5 v Fresno State
Diego Pavia is a star and is the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl MVP. Him and New Mexico State will take on a Fresno State team that has lost its swagger. Fresno averaged 34 points the first 9 games beating teams like Purdue and Boise State, and finished on a 3 game losing streak scoring 17.67 points a game. Fresno couldn’t decide on a quarterback toward the backend of the season playing Fife and Keene, but Fife is transferring so it’ll be Keene’s show. We have clarity on that at least, but I can’t imagine the team has a lot of confidence in him. They will score, because teams score on New Mexico State, but teams have a hard time stopping this offense. They just went to Auburn and won, and were going toe to toe at Liberty in the CUSA Championship before Pavia went down. He’ll play this Saturday, and that tells me all I need to know about him. Many QBs would mail it in, it’s “just a bowl game” but Pavia wants to cap off a great season, and the dude just loves ball. 6 out of 14 times this season Pavia has lead the team in rushing and passing, and teams surly been able to run on Fresno as of late. In their 3 game losing streak they are giving up a wild 298 yards per game. This won’t cut it vs New Mexico State and I think they lay a big number on Saturday.
New Mexico State 35 Fresno State 24
Monday December 18 2:30pm
Old Dominion -2.5 v Western Kentucky
This play is a fade on a team who had a disappointing season, who probably thought they’d be in a bigger bowl game. Western Kentucky went from 9-5 returning stars QB and WR Austin Reed and Malachi Cooley, to 7-6, with both of their yards going down. Western Kentucky now has 4 offensive lineman, and 4 defensive backs in the transfer portal. The QB and WR are still there and they are game changers, but this team feels checked out.
Old Dominion had a pretty hard g5 schedule, playing 2 ACC teams in Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, played Liberty, and conference foe’s App State, JMU and Coastal Carolina. They had to win their last two to reach a bowl game, so they’ve been in “playoff mode” for a few weeks. This is their 3rd bowl game in 30 years so nobody is taking it for granted there. Old Dominion will be down a handful of receivers, but Western Kentucky has been very poor against the run, so this will work into Old Dominion’s favor. Old Dominion also provides a physical defense, so unless Malachi Cooley can single handedly win Western Kentucky the game, I don’t expect them scoring much.
Old Dominion 24 Western Kentucky 20
Saturday December 16 4:30pm
Colts -1.5 v Steelers
Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL but I’m even doubting if he can keep this lockerroom together with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. I get that their QBs have been awful, but the team is 7-6 and the receivers are acting like they are on the 1-12 Panthers. Steeler legend Big Ben just said he thinks the Steeler brand is over because of these two receivers complaining, not trying at times, and nobody has punched them in the mouth.
The Colts on the other hand have some Minshew Magic going. This does caution me cause when you expect things from Minshew he then shows why he’s a backup, but he’s been very good this year. The heavy RPO offense has been very “p” since Jon Taylor has been out, and Michael Pittman Jr has been a true game changer. The Steelers defense is better at stopping the pass, but I don’t see the Colts pass slowing down. Which leads me to think this top10 scoring offense in the NFL should land close to their number. Zach Moss hasn’t popped but the Steelers can be ran on. If the Colts can get their balance going they should get 3 touchdowns. The last 4 weeks the Steelers couldn’t crack 20 points and I expect this streak to continue. Mitch Trubisky has some legs but he just cannot deliver a good enough ball to sustain drives. I’ll take the team who believes in one another and will play for each other.
Colts 24 Steelers 14
Sunday December 17 4:25pm
Bills -2 v Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-3 on the road, with wins over the Giants, Panthers, and the disappointing Chargers, and losses vs the Eagles and Niners. Oh, and Dallas somehow lost to Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals earlier in the year. Dallas is a wagon at home, but now have to go on the road to play a focused Bills team.
The OC switch has been great for the Bills. Joe Brady has Josh Allen under center more, they are running James Cook, and the ball is being spread around more, not just funneled to Diggs. Stefon Diggs is due for an explosive game, and when this happens the Bills offense will feel unstoppable. Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakur have given Allen production, Dawson Knox is back to go with a breakout Dalton Kinkaid, and running backs have caught 23 passes in Joe Brady’s three games. Let Josh Allen cook, but have the checkdowns available and key in on them. Sure, he’ll throw an interception, but with the quick passes and the run game, this Bills team moves the chains. We should expect a little wind in Buffalo on Sunday, so it’ll be wise to take what the defense gives you. For as great as this Cowboys defense is, they aren’t that sharp in stopping the run, and the Bills tackles have played great ball lately to limit the terror off the Dallas edge.
Dallas’s offense in theory shouldn’t be affected by low 40 degree weather with 10-13mph breezes, but they are a domed team who has yet to play a game below 60 degrees this season. A good way to attack the Bills is on the ground, but Dallas surprisingly hasn’t ran it too efficiently this season. Instead it’s Dak completing a nice 69% of his passes, and hitting on his deep shots. This is where Micah Hyde, who is questionable, and Jordan Poyer thrive. This is the best safety duo and they take the ball away down the field. Including PATs, Brandon Aubury has had an amazing rookie season going a nice 69-72. The confidence must be through the roof, but it’s a little different licking in Buffalo in December than it is in Jerry World. In a game between two great offenses, this can be an underrated factor. The Cowboys are a great team, but give me the home team fighting for their playoff lives. YEAHHHHH Here we gooooo
Bills 28 Cowboys 23
Sunday December 17 8:20pm
Jaguars +3 v Ravens
It takes a lot to back the team you’re a fan of, because you really want to remove bias. We are 2-0 this season when backing the Jags though, so you always have to focus in and snipe your spots! It’s time to back the Jags after they lost to backups Jake Browning and Joe Flacco, while the Ravens have won three straight and have jumped to the #1 seed in the AFC. We also are looking to back a home team who is 2-4 at home and 6-1 away from TIAA Bank Stadium.
Let’s talk about the Ravens first. During their three game win streak they beat the Bengals in the game Joe Burrow got hurt, went to LA to play the dumpster fire Chargers, and had the Rams come to the East Coast and take Baltimore to overtime. The Ravens have been the best team in the AFC, but the conference isn’t as strong as we thought and they aren’t playing their sharpest football despite getting wins. The Jaguars do not finish off sacks, but they play good run defense and they create pressure, containing mobile quarterbacks. In a weird way, they are bad vs statue quarterbacks. Lamar is a pocket quarterback who can run, and I think the Jaguars limit his legs. Without Mark Andrews we have Zay Flowers who catches so many screens, Odell Beckham, and Isaiah Likely. If the defense doesn’t communicate and lets Likely get as wide open as Njoku, then this Jaguars pick is chalked, but this defense has been too good this year to be as bad as the last two games. The Jaguars drafted Travon Walker #1 to slow down the likes of division foes Derrick Henry and Jon Taylor, so I’m banking on him to be up for the task vs Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards.
Despite the two game Jaguars losing streak the offense has scored. Yes, Lawrence threw 3 interceptions vs the Browns, but he threw 9 the previous 21 games. In the last two weeks vs the Ravens, Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen caught 22 balls for 220 yards. The Jaguars have to unleash Parker Washington to play the Christian Kirk role, and let Evan Engram do what he’s been doing. The offense hasn’t been the problem as they averaged 29 points the last 4 games, but they cannot force feed the outsides to the likes of Ridley and Zay Jones. The Jaguars offense and defense should match up well vs the Ravens and since the Jaguars lost their last two games due to uncharacteristic defensive lapses we get the home team as a field goal underdog.
Jaguars 21 Ravens 20
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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