Volume Thirteen

Recap
UTSA +3.5 – Miss.
Commanders +13 – Miss.
Dolphins -9.5 – HIT!
NFL 12-6-3
NCAAF 5-5-1

I’d love to see New Mexico State win on Friday. Coach Jerry Kill is an awesome human who I was lucky enough to work with for a year at Rutgers. To win at Liberty is one tall mountain though; heck to keep it a single point game is a tall mountain. I’ll probably throw Taco Bell money on New Mexico State ML for the vibes, but I just can’t find myself to Korner them.
Washington is a team I’ve rocked with all year. Washington beat Oregon by 3 in Seattle already, and have kept stacking wins. I just don’t understand how Oregon is a -9.5 favorite. Like, give them a -3/-4 but -9.5? Washington is undefeated and again they beat Oregon! This is another game I will have Taco Bell money on but I cannot Korner it. Michael Penix has to be hurt is my only guess for this line. The last two weeks, in two wins one at Oregon State in pouring rain and the other vs their rival in Wazzu, Penix has thrown for only 366 yards. He’s thrown for this amount in five separate games so maybe he’s banged up? Oregon is a great team, I just seen Washington beat them, and think they’ll beat them again, but this line is so crazy high that I’ll trust Vegas on this and stay away.
I was able to get Texas on release at -11. The line is now -15.5 and that’s too high for my liking to give it out. Oklahoma State is a very solid team, they are in the Big12 Championship game for a reason. I’m hoping Texas strikes first and quickly and maybe I Oklahoma State +18.
Lastly on conference championship weekend, I have intel from the Professor. He told me Iowa +22 is his play of the year.
The Saturday games should be great! I will be packing the RAC though as Rutgers takes on Illinois at 4pm. I couldn’t pass up a live Rutgers game even though Georgia plays Alabama at the same time!

Saints +4.5 v Lions
The Lions have been flirting with fire the last few weeks. They beat the Chargers but gave up 38 on defense, they were down by 12 with 5 minutes left vs the Bears but snuck out with a win, and they go beat down on Thanksgiving vs the Packers. Yes, they come in with a few days of extra rest, but they play a desperate Saints team. This Saints team is so frustrating because only 42.5% of their redzone drives end in touchdowns, which is 4th worse in the NFL, but thankfully they are facing the 3rd worst redzone defense in the Lions. With Chris Olave and Rasheed Shadeed likely not playing, the Saints can simplify their redzone offense and get a healthy dose of Taysom Hill. I’m not a fan usually when teams switch up quarterbacks, but the Saints really execute the Hill package well. In the last three weeks, this Lions defense let the Packers score their 2nd most points, the Bears their 3rd most, and the Chargers their most points. The Saints have a strong defense, even without Lattimore, and with the Lions defense being swiss cheese, I think a desperate Saints team comes out on top.
Saints 27 Lions 24

Cardinals +5.5 at Steelers
I should just be a Steelers blog at this point. We hit three in a row capping on them, taking off last week. The Cardinals are 1-2 with Kyler and got embarrassed by the Rams last weekend. The good news is the Rams offense is way better than the Steelers offense. Sure the Steelers finally broke 400 yards the game after Matt Canada was fired, but did you see the lack of effort from Diontae Johnson? This team is 7-4, and gets to host the Patriots next weekend. 9 wins should get a team in the playoffs, maybe you’ll need 10, but if the Steelers take care of business this weekend they should get in. And this is where the Cardinals come to play spoiler. The last four quarterbacks the Steelers played were Wil Levis, Jordan Love, Dorian Thompson Robinson, and Jake Browning. Kyler is a polarizing figure but he’s out of these quarterbacks league. The rust should be all off of him now and after throwing for two touchdowns his first three games I expect him to match or go above that total Sunday. Hollywood Brown got 12 targets last weekend, and the last time the Steelers played a good tight end Evan Engram had 10 catches. Tight end Trey McBride and Brown should do some good damage, which means I think the Steelers will have to score to cover this big number. Can the Steelers get 24+? I’m not too sure so I’ll take the Cardinals where Kyler has no more rust excuse.
Cardinals 20 Steelers 17

Broncos +3 at Texans
CJ Stroud is HIM, but the Texas only scored 21 points each the last two games, with the prior 2 scoring 34.5 points. They will face a Broncos team who’s given up 16.5 points the last 6 games, 3 of those coming against the Chiefs twice and the Bills. If the Broncos lost 28-14 to the Dolphins instead of 70-21 I think we’d take this Broncos team more seriously. Russell Wilson has 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and he hasn’t turned the ball over since Thursday 10/12 at the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos will has a decent run defense in the Texans, but the Broncos don’t run to score they run to set up the pass. The Broncos run the ball the 7th most in the NFL, but have scored the 3rd least rushing touchdowns. They complete a high clip of 68% of their passes and when they throw it on 3rd down or in the redzone they profit. They also lead the NFL in takeaways with 2 per game, and will face an extremely accurate but rookie QB. As I started, CJ Stroud is HIM, but this is in a ways a playoff game. We have two 6-5 teams fighting for the 7 seed, and the Texans have lacked in attendance and do not create a homefield atmosphere. He has yet to look rattled but against the most opportunistic defense in the league I can feel a key turnover or two. NFL players are self motivated but if this team hits some road blocks I don’t think we’ll get the juice from the crowd to propel them. I’ll take the veteran Wilson over Stroud on Sunday.
Broncos 23 Texans 21

Thank you,
Goose