Volume Twelve

Recap
Arizona -1 v Utah – HIT!
Browns -1 v Steelers – HIT!
Chiefs -2.5 v Eagles – Miss.
NFL 11-5-3
NCAAF 5-4-1

Rutgers +1 v Maryland
Rutgers is on a three game losing streak to #2 Ohio State, #11 Penn State, and #17 Iowa. So basically Rutgers lost to three top teams its last three. There’s no reason to feel bad about that as a fan. Now, I realllllly hope the players realize that. Momentum is a hellova drug, and Rutgers doesn’t have much at the moment. But this game is HUGE. The winner will finish 4th in the Big Ten East and be looked at as the 5th or 6th best Big Ten school. So how will Rutgers win this weekend?
Rutgers has played a lot of bad quarterbacks and run-centric teams this season. Maryland does not believe in running the ball and Tualia is up there as one of the best quarterbacks Rutgers will play. Rutgers doesn’t have the depth like these elite teams, they have some dawgs on defense but their backups lack. Maryland will not play a physical game so I’m good with this. The defensive line will have to create pressure to help out the secondary, but they won’t need much help. Max Melton and Robert Longerbeam will have countless opportunities to make a play as corner backs. Maryland spreads the ball around as the last three games they had a different receiver lead them in yards. Where I am worried is our linebackers in coverage. They’ve flashed at times like when Mo Toure read McCord’s eyes and picked him off, but they get beat vertically at times. Tualia can make the passes that a lot of QBs who’ve faced Rutgers couldn’t.
I don’t think it’s realistic to keep Maryland that much below their scoring average. The offense for Rutgers has been weak, but that’s also vs stiff competition. They will need to stick to their game plan and get a heavy dose of running the ball. Rutgers got to 1st and goal five times vs Ohio State and Penn State, and did not record a touchdown. My hope and expectations are that it’ll be a little easier scoring on this Maryland defense. They did lose five of six and in those five losses teams averaged 35.8 points. Rutgers has to get to 24. Three touchdowns and either a field goal or a fourth touchdown. They run the ball so effectively and Gavin Wimsatt did have a better game last week. They just need to capitalize on the redzone chances and they can on this Maryland defense. In Gavin we trust!
Rutgers 24 Maryland 20

UTSA +3.5 at Tulane
Our first Korner play of the year was UTSA to beat Houston. UTSA lost and their quarterback wasn’t 100%. The team then used the OOC as like a tune up for their main goal to win the American conference. In conference play UTSA is 7-0 winning on an average of 41-22 thanks to Frank Harris being healthy. Tulane is no slouch, they are the ranked team of the two, and the home team, but UTSA has everything in front of them to earn a birth in the American Championship game.
Tulane is led by quarterback Michael Pratt, who PFF has as a 3rd round quarterback. Tulane has yet to put up 41 points this season, a number UTSA is averaging in conference play. Tulane runs the ball well, but that’s the strength of the UTSA defense as UTSA gives up 3.6 yards per carry, a top 25 rate. Tulane will look to win the time of possession, but that’s okay because UTSA should and will score efficiently on their possessions. Tulane lets teams complete 66% of their passes against them which is bottom 10 in NCAA. This bend don’t break defense works in college, but it shouldn’t work against a team averaging 41. UTSA is so well balanced that I’m okay with them facing a wall of a run defense. Frank Harris shreds and just put up 411 passing yards in his last home game of his career. Let Tulane play their possession game, shred them in the air, and then go beat SMU in the American Championship game.
UTSA 35 Tulane 28

Commanders +13 at Cowboys
This Commanders team got embarrassed last weekend losing at the Giants and Tommy DeVito. Before that though, they’ve played decent football. They are 3-3 on the road, lost twice to the Eagles by a combined 10 points, and are averaging 24 points their last 4 games. 12.5 points is a lot for a divisional game, especially one on national television where nobody wants to get embarrassed. We are also getting an inflated number because the Cowboys just host the Giants and went to Carolina, two of the worst teams in the league. As simple as it sounds, the Commanders cannot turn the ball over 6 times and expect to win this weekend. Their defense did their thing, sacking DeVito 9 times, but the 6 turnovers put them behind the eight ball. Eric Bienemy is too good of a coach to let this happen again. It’s a short practice week but I’m sure all the players heard was ball security. Washington currently runs the ball the least and throws the ball the most. They would be wise to run the ball a little on this speed Cowboys defense. Brian Robinson is a top10 back in the NFL, and this will minimize the opportunistic corners on Dallas and could neutralize Micah Parsons. Since the Niners beatdown to Dallas, Dak Prescott has thrown 14 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He is playing his way to the MVP conversation. I just think last year wasn’t Dak, and this run isn’t Dak. Dak is very good, but he isn’t in that top 3 elite category. The Commanders will need to take care of the ball as I mentioned, and I expect them to get Dak to cough one up. With a 12.5 spread, that one Dak turnover will be crucial.
Cowboys 28 Commanders 20

Dolphins -9.5 at Jets
Y’all think Zach Wilson stinks? I’d rather have that receiver who had to start for the Broncos a few years ago than Tim Boyle. I understand the benching of Wilson, something had to change, but the results will be worse with Boyle under center. Miami usually explodes on vulnerable foes, but they were kept in check hosting the Raiders last week. Maybe the Raiders aren’t as bad as I thought, but I expect Miami to put up at least 30 like the Bills did against the Jets this weekend. I have so much respect for Sauce Gardner, but Tyreek Hill is a nightmare who should at least get 100. Miami goes as their running game goes though. A lot of run defense is about will, and how do we expect the Jets to have will after their 3 game losing streak, where the defense is on the field with no help to the offense. The Jets pass rush and corners? Amazing. Their run defense? Good but nothing legendary. I expect Miami to get the run game going and break the will of the Jets defense for their second week in a row. Trevor Siemian should be starting, not Tim Boyle.
Dolphins 31 Jets 6

Thank you,
Goose