Volume Nine

Recap
Niners -4 v Bengals – Miss. WHY DIDNT DARNOLD PLAY
Season record 10-8-3
NFL 7-4-2
NCAAF 3-4-1

Rutgers +18.5 v Ohio State
First off, I’m skipping a golf event to attend this game. The Mud Bowl is a Ryder cup style event and I look forward to it every year, but my optimistic self has me convinced there’s a chance. Ohio State is the #1 team in the Nation, and I do agree with that. They aren’t playing like a typical Ohio State team though. Against Big Ten foe’s and Notre Dame, this Ohio State offense is averaging 27 points. When I think Ohio State I think this number should be in the mid to high 30s. Kyle McCord has led his team to wins over Penn State and at Notre Dame, but he isn’t lighting up the scoreboard. Now, their defense is another story. The most points Ohio State has given up is 17, in their 37-17 win vs Maryland. Notre Dame and Penn State are 13th and 14th in points per game, averaging 36 and 35.5, and Ohio State held them to 14 and 12 respectively.
Rutgers, at worst, will have to turn the ball over once to make this a game. For as good as this Ohio State defense is, they are only averaging 1 takeaway a game which is 98th in the nation. They also do not sack the quarterback a lot, and Rutgers has done a great job keeping Wimsatt upright. Where Ohio State excels is they do not give up yards, only giving up 263 which is 4th best in the nation. Rutgers has been winning without gaining a tremendous amount of yards, living by their mantra to Keep Choppin. We’ll need 30 carries from the run game, we’ll need lucky pop plays to put us in position, and when we have to punt we’ll need Appleby to keep punting well. His yards per punt are low, but he has 13 punts inside the 20 yard line and only one touchback. Live to fight another possession, pray Marvin Harrison doesn’t get loose, and Chop away the next possession. Rutgers hasn’t given up any 40 yard plays this year, but they’ve given up plenty of intermediate plays over the middle. Their run defense has been strong, they have the talent in the pass defense, they’ll just need a consistent pass rush and their corners staying locked in throughout the play. Jai Patel has been a good kicker for Rutgers and he’ll need a perfect game as we cannot afford to give away points. When you play the #1 team in the nation you need to get lucky. Can Rutgers break off a 50 yard slant pass like they did vs Michigan? Can they block a punt like they did their last two games vs Indiana and Michigan State? Can they get a strip sack or pick off Kyle McCord, who only has 3 interceptions but 2 of them came last week at Wisconsin? Rutgers is 6-2 and bowl eligible, in a way the pressure is off, and if there was ever a time for a signature upset win, its against an Ohio State team averaging 27 points a game, down from 44 from last season. Is it likely Rutgers will win? Nope. But to win we need Ohio State under 24 points and Rutgers to be within single digits at half.
Rutgers 23 Ohio State 21

Steelers -3 v Titans
The Titans come into this game 0-3 on the road, and Will Levis will make his second career start. The Steelers just got beat down by the Jaguars last week, but the Jaguars just dominate the Steelers as they are 6-2 in Pittsburgh.
I find it hard to believe Will Levis will be as great as he was last week. Part of that is I don’t see Deandre Hopkins going 4 catches for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns again. Levis likes to push it, but Tomlin will have his guys playing off Hopkins. The Steelers don’t have the physical run defense we are used to but they bring pressure in passing situations and Levis shouldn’t have all day to throw letting things develop for Hopkins. Derrick Henry will move the chains, that’s what he does, but the Steelers will have to limit Levis. In the last three weeks, vs the ravens, @ the Rams, and vs the Jags, the Steelers defense has shown out, giving up 15.66 points a game, getting an interception a game, and forcing 4 fumbles. Now they get to play a rookie QB who will have his first road start of his career, and it’s a short week.
The Titans do not have a good pass defense. Pickett and co have struggled but this is a perfect bounce back opportunity. The Titans let teams complete 69.6% of their passes and have caught the least amount of interceptions only catching 2. Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in football, and the Steelers interior will have their hands full there, but if they can slow him down I have faith Pickett will rack up some easy throws. Last week Taylor Heinicke threw for 175 yards in the second half vs the Titans and made the pass lifeless Falcons look relevant. The Titans do not generate the pressure they need and their corners aren’t ball hawks. If Heinicke, who isn’t good enough to start over Desmond Midder until week 9 can be on pace for a 350 yard game, then Pickett can get yards and points on this Titans defense.
Steelers 24 Titans 14

Thank you,
Goose