Volume Seven

Man oh man what a Rutgers football game last weekend. For those that aren’t in the area, it rained the whole game, and it poured the third quarter. We knew the forecast coming in, and I couldn’t get anyone to come with me to the game, but that wasn’t going to stop me! I went to the game solo and was miserable the first three quarters. I was getting to a point where my fingers felt funny, and every rain drop felt like it was moving so slowly down my spine. It was 24-6 at the end of the third and I was ready to leave. I had to head to a brewery anyway for my brother-in-law’s birthday so if I left at the end of the third I could stop home before the brewery. I already had my extra clothes with me, but the benefit of stopping at home was I could take a warm shower prior. I’m shot out though, I thought one more possession. I didn’t come get soaked for three quarters just to leave early! To start the fourth quarter Rutgers plays “Don’t Stop Believing” and waves the bELieve Eric LeGrand flag. I think that’s what had me stay, I didn’t stop believing. To open the fourth Michigan State punt the ball and gave us good field position, but, there was a penalty on Michigan State. Honestly, I didn’t like Rutgers accepting it to make them rekick, as we were about to take over on our 40 yard line and it was so rainy that our returner was going to fair catch anyways. But boy was I wrong! Michigan State proceeded to fumble the snap and TOUCHDOWN Rutgers! All 5,000 of us left (in a 52,000 stadium) got hyped and the players on the sidelines got amped up too. Once I saw the sidelines believing I thought “why not.” Our defense comes back out and gets them to punt again but this time Rutgers gets the ball on their 27 with 73 yards to go. After getting sacked on the first play, Gavin Wimsatt had his best drive in a Rutgers jersey, he truly blossomed. 24 yard strike to Isaiah Washington, 17 yard run by Monangai, 11 yard strike to Dremel, 12 yard run by Monangai, and then the most beautiful touch pass by Wimsatt to Washington in the corner of the endzone, TOUCHDOWN! The comeback isn’t complete though, as Rutgers is still down 3 with 8 minutes left. Michigan State lined up for an onside kick return and only had the return man at the 10 yard line. Rahway High School loves a Sky Kick where they try to land it on the 30 yard line and hope the player panics, then recovering the ball. From my seat I’m constantly saying “land it on the 25 land it on the 25 land it on the 25” as that space was void of a Michigan State player. Jude McAtamany landed the ball perfectly on the 25, one hop, and Rutgers recovers! One play and we run the ball in and Rutgers now has the lead! A Punt and a Rutgers 7 minute drive ending in a kneel ends it. Man oh man what a Rutgers football game last weekend.

Recap
Washington -3 Push. Washington 36 Oregon 33
Oregon State -3.5 HIT! Oregon State 36 UCLA 24
Jaguars -4 HIT! Jaguars 37 Colts 20
Bucs +3.5 Loss. Lions 20 Bucs 6
Season record 9-6-3
NFL 6-3-2
NCAAF 3-3-1
Last Ten 6-2-2

Indiana +5 v Rutgers
Reminder: all Rutgers plays are unofficial, I just want to talk about my Knights but I cannot bet them in New Jersey. My Rutgers ATS record is 3-3 (didn’t cap the Wagner game) and their ATS is 5-1-1 – so I guess I haven’t been as high on them so far as I should! I thought they would beat Northwestern, I just didn’t think they’d blow them out, and I thought Wisconsin would be too big and physical for Rutgers – the Michigan game was a push but I feel I capped it well.
I’m torn on what side to back spread wise. I do think Rutgers wins, they have some swagger right now, but I do not think Indiana, at Indiana nonetheless, is a bad team. They are a transition team that has shown flashes. They held Ohio State to 23 points week one, they got blown out the last two weeks by Michigan a Maryland team that is inconsistent but Tualia can sling it, and they took 6-1 Louisville to the last minute losing 21-14. But, two weeks ago they promoted a new offensive coordinator, and they aren’t committed to either of their two quarterbacks right now. I think I’m leaning Indiana to cover though, because I haven’t seen enough of this offense when they are on the road. In games Wimsatt has started: 2022 0 points at Minnesota, 21 at Michigan State, 0 at Maryland, 2023 7 at Michigan 13 at Wisconsin. Indiana’s defense is a step below those other Big Ten foes, but I have a feeling it’ll be a fairly conservative gameplan. Kyle Monangai is cooking and he’ll keep the chains moving. Wimsatt has come up clutch numerous times this year and I think he’ll hit the throws he needs. I think Rutgers will come out on top, but with Indiana’s new OC and most likely going with their young quarterback, they’ll be in striking range. Rutgers will bleed the clock out in the second half and they will be too much for the Hoosiers though.
Rutgers 21 Indiana 20

Penn State +4.5 at Ohio State
In Volume Three we had Notre Dame +3.5 v Ohio State and covered, and we look to attack Ohio State again vs a top end team. In that comment I’m making it sound like I think Ohio State is frauds, but that is not the case. I do think Ohio State is elite, but I do not think they are playoff elite, where I thought Notre Dame was (lol still covered!) and I think Penn State and Michigan are. Ohio State always has a great amount of speed on their team, and they can tear through the mid and lower level competition. Penn State has the size and speed to match up with Ohio State and it’ll start up front. Notre Dame threw all kinds of pressure at McCord and he handled it very well on the last drive of the game, but overall he completed 57% of his passes. Penn State has the defensive line that will create pressure on its own, and if they send an extra rusher they should speed up McCord. Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson had their tune-up game vs UMass last week and combined for 4.5 sacks. I look for them to make the Buckeye tackles work, and free up the Penn State linebackers. Abdul Carter has been off to a slow start, leading them in sacks last year with 6.5 and has 1 this year. I look for Penn State to blitz multiple guys as McCord hasn’t handled pressure too well this season. It’s hard to blitz Ohio State because of their great receiver weapons, but Kalen King is a 1st round corner and he’ll make Marvin Harrison Jr earn his yards. It’s rare when a defense can match up with the explosiveness of Ohio State, so it’ll be on the quarterback to run the show and I have my doubts.
Drew Allar is an Ohio kid and will head to Columbus for the first time as a player. He has yet to throw an interception, but outside of Iowa he hasn’t played the strongest of defenses. James Franklin has yet to make a college football playoff but this is the first quarterback at Penn State I trust. I see the stats that on the road in 6 quarters Allar has 300 yards only 1 touchdown and completed 50%, but those games never really felt in doubt. He knows he’ll have to bring it for his homecoming, and he has a supporting cast to make life easier. Allar’s two recieevrs are 6foot1 and his two tight ends, both who should be drafted this year are 6foot6. We know about all world prospect Nicholas Singleton at running back, but his running mate Kaytron Allen has really stepped up to spell Singleton. Penn State has a combo of running and passing, finesse and physicality, that just makes them too balanced. Ohio State’s defense held Notre Dame to 14 points but that was also due to stopping Notre Dame on two 4th downs where Notre Dame avoided giving the ball to Estime. James Franklin will have to call a better game than Marcus Freeman and co., and that shouldn’t be too hard. I look for the balance of Penn State to get at least 24 points, and I do not think the Ohio State offense will get 28 against this Penn State defense.
Penn State 27 Ohio State 24

Eagles -2.5 v Dolphins
On one hand the Eagles haven’t looked like the 2022 Eagles, which makes sense as they lost a lot from last year. They are 5-1 but are currently 8th in point differential, a category they were 3rd in last year. Their opponent is the Dolphins who have scored the most points this season their their speed on offense. I have to watch my wording here, but who have the Dolphins played? At the Chargers who are 2-3, at the 1-5 Pats, vs the 1-5 Broncos, vs the 1-5 giants, and vs the 0-6 Panthers, all of which were wins. The Dolphins also lost 48-20 at the Bills. This Dolphins offense is borderline historic good, but this defense has been swiss early on and it’s been masked by their weak schedule. The Dolphins are Super Bowl contenders, but this is too short a line going to Philly.
When the Dolphins played both the high powered Chargers and Bills they gave up 5.5 yards per carry to their running backs. This is a perfect bounceback spot for the Eagles as they are one of if not the best rushing teams in the league. My hope is that the 8 carries Kenneth Gainwell get a game all go to Swift as he has been by far their most efficient runner, but a combo of Swift, Hurts, and Gainwell have to take over this game. All Pro right tackle Lane Johnson is looking like he won’t play on Sunday, and this has been a big impact on the Eagles when he is out, but they have to gameplan ways around minimizing the impact. Their other four lineman are too talented to not come together and have the show keep rolling. Jalen Hurts has to take care of the ball in this matchup, as he has 4 interceptions in his last two games, 7 overall in six games, and a fumble loss. Rewarding the Dolphins offense with extra possessions is a no-no, and luckily for the Eagles the Dolphins did not record a turnover in the Chargers or Bills game.
The Eagles are giving up 3.6 yards per rush, which is 6th best in the league, but this Dolphins rush attack is pretty unique. Jalen Carter is back at practice and him, Jordan Davis and Fletcher Cox are a nightmare trio. The Dolphins do damage with outside runs taking plenty of space, but with these three monsters rotating, the Eagles can focus outside as they have the middle taken care of. This trio also gets pressure up the middle on pass plays, something Tua hasn’t dealt with much this year. He gets the ball out so quick but Jalen Carter looks like he’s on an Aaron Donald trajectory so I have confidence he disrupts the game. You aren’t going to stop the Dolphins, but the Bills showed the road map. Tua has been sacked 2 times in 5 Dolphin wins, and 4 times in the loss vs the Bills. The Eagles pass rush started slow, but they have 9 sacks in their last two games, and now sit 5th with 20 sacks. Center Connor Williams hasn’t practiced this week and left tackle Terron Armstead is still out, so it’s go time for the Eagles front.
Eagles 31 Dolphins 27

Thank you,
Goose