We’re getting to that perfect time in sports! This is a football blog but hockey is back! It’s so fun being a Devils fan right now. Jack Hughes is 22 years young and a top3 American player. He’s on the smaller side so injury will always be a concern but the speedster just makes plays and I’m stoked to be able to watch him develop. We’re close to the NBA season tipping off, and the game content doesn’t excite me but it’s the best “bar-talk” sport. As my guy ScoopB says “NBA is the new WWE” with all these storylines and role playing! The basketball that I’m excited about is college. The pro’s are too good and too quick for me. It feels they have perfected basketball on offense so it feels defenses cannot stop NBA offenses. College is sloppy, college is slow, college is chaos! Rutgers wants to play faster this season on offense but they still know their calling is effort on defense. The RAC is truly an incredible gymnasium to watch a game. It isn’t glamorous but it gets LOUD. Honestly, it skewed my live viewing experience in other games. I went to the Giants Seahawks game the other day and not even the Giants boo’s felt loud enough. And Rutgers football only gets 30k out of 52k so they can’t generate the noise I’m looking for. But, to be fair, the RAC is an indoor arena so the noise is trapped. College basketball is better than NBA basketball because of the crazy college student crowds and you just don’t get this passion in a “professional” level where the whole league is a business. I’m not the biggest baseball guy but hey, the baseball playoffs are going on too, and the Phillies bring energy. I cannot stand Eagles fans, there’s a section that aren’t “passionate” but they are “aggressive.” Maybe because I’m not a baseball guy so I don’t realize the aggression, but the Phillies fan base feels all passion! So that’s my view on how the Fall is amazing because of sports. Enjoy it now while we have most of the sports world colliding!
Recap
Jaguars +5.5 v Bills – HIT! Jaguars 25 Bills 20
Falcons -2 v Texans – Push. Falcons 21 Texans 19
Saints +1 at Patriots – HIT! Saints 35 Patriots 0
Season record 7-5-2
NFL 5-2-2
NCAAF 2-3
Michigan State +4.5 v Rutgers
We head to Rutgers homecoming where we do not know who will be the Michigan State quarterback, but it sounds like they will trot out highly anticipated freshman Katin Houser. Michigan State’s season is not going as expected, as they fired their coach, and are 0-3 v Power 5 teams, which Rutgers is a Power 5 program. But, Rutgers isn’t Washington, Maryland, or Iowa, and I understand that. We are close to Iowa and Maryland, and we could beat those teams, but on a neutral field they would be favored.
Rutgers needs to play their brand of football. This defense has some serious speed, and they need to make life hard for the young quarterback. Three Rutgers defensive backs have sacks on the season, and defensive lineman Wesley Bailey and Aaron Lewis are coming in to form both having three sacks on the year. Reading up on Michigan State, some of their fans are defending quarterback Noah Kim because he didn’t have time to throw behind their shaky offensive line. Now they turn to a young quarterback and he’ll face a Rutgers team that will send multiple looks of pressure his way. The biggest key for this Rutgers defense will be to limit the chunk plays, through the air and ground. At times last year Rutgers would over pursuit their linebackers and safeties, and if that running back broke the first wave of defenders, there would be nobody to stop him. This year they have been much more disciplined, giving up a 14 yard run to Blake Corum, and a 18 yard run to Braelon Allen. Keep Michigan State’s Nathan Carter to below 20 yards for his longest run, and make Michigan State score on sustained drives.
I am not at practice so I don’t know if Sam Brown is healthy, but if he is I need Rutgers to play him. Monangai has been very good, but Brown was a beast of a Freshman last year. I don’t know how his foot has healed, but if he’s healthy it’s time to unleash the power back and watch him constantly fall forward for 3 to 5 yards. Washington and Maryland are pass first teams, and Iowa only plays defense, but this Michigan State team has been good against the run. Gavin Wimsatt has yet to throw for 200 yards this season and Rutgers will need to establish the run early and often. Offensive Coordinator has had many bright spots calling a game this year, and he’s limited Wimsatt to two interceptions, only getting sacked three times. Pound the ball, limit the turnovers, don’t let Michigan State get chunk plays, and make the darn play when it matters! Rutgers wins, but I think it’s a nail biter.
Rutgers 21 Michigan State 17
Washington -3 v Oregon
There’s a lot riding on this game, including legacy. The team who wins starting quarterback will be neck and neck with Caleb Williams for Heisman, and probably have a slight edge.
Oregon is the more complete team. They have a good pass defense, a quick run game, a strong run defense, and an okay pass defense. Washington has the best pass offense in the country. Michael Penix is averaging 400 yards in the air thanks to two great receivers and two good receivers. Rome Odunze is every bit a top three receiver in college, and if Christian Gonzalez stayed at Oregon we’d have a showdown and a half right here. But Gonzalez went to the NFL, and Oregon has some talent in the secondary, but Washington should push the ball close to at will. Oregon’s front is giving up 3 yards a rush, but in the pass defense they are bottom 30 in pass completion. When we look at the boxscore, Oregon’s pass defense had a day vs Shedeur and Colorado. But that’s because Colorado’s offensive line is holding them back. This defensive line won’t be able to throw around the Washington offensive line so easily, and Washington has two outstanding tackles. Washington’s biggest strength, passing the rock, is Oregon’s biggest weakness, defending the pass. When Oregon has the ball, they should move it. That’s what teams do, move it on Washington. But time and time again I’ve seen Bo Nix crumble in the spotlight on the road and or vs a ranked foe. Bo Nix at home has 51 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, to 29 touchdowns and 17 interceptions on the road and vs ranked teams he has 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Bo Nix has talent, and he’s a veteran, but I think the quarterback disparity is too big compared to Michael Penix Jr. Washington moves on and will be a serious threat all season long.
Washington 38 Oregon 31
Oregon State -3.5 vs UCLA
UCLA has gone up against two strong Pac12 defenses in @ Utah and vs Washington State. UCLA Freshman Quarterback Dante Moore is going to be real good, but in those two matchups he’s completing 47% with 2 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. Oregon State’s defense might be the best of these three. This is hard for me to say honestly, because on the road the Beavers just gave up 35 to Wazzu and 40 to Cal, but they won both of these games and this week they will be home. What I love about the Beaver’s defense is their excellent safety duo of Oladapo and Cooper. These two fly around, especially Oladapo. Whether it’s crashing on a big third and short, or making the open field tackle on a swing route, he’s a sure fire tackler. Judging by how UCLA’s offense has faired the last two weeks, it’s fair to assume a couple of turnovers as they give the ball up 2.3 times a game, and I just can’t see more than 24 points from them.
UCLA is pace pace pace, ranking 104th in time of possession. Oregon State, who should dictate the tempo as they are the home team, is 32nd in time of possession, as they go about their business slowly. UCLA’s run defense statistically has been A+ giving up 1.7 yards per carry, but lets look at their last two opponents. Washington State’s run game averages 3.4 yards anyways and Utah is a mess offensively with no Cam Rising. This UCLA run defense is very good, but I don’t think they are juggernaut good. Oregon State does a great job rotating two backs, giving one 16 carries and the other 11. This has led them two to average 6 yards and keep the chains moving. Keep the ball on the ground, wear out this UCLA defensive line, and dominate the second half. In the last four games, so San Diego State and three Pac12 games, Oregon State in the first half is winning 54-48 but in the second half of the games their offense overpowers you winning 80-46. USC Notre Dame will be fireworks at 7:30pm, and this Oregon State UCLA matchup will be a rock fight at 8pm.
Oregon State 27 UCLA 21
Jaguars -4 vs Colts
I am going back to the well with my Jaguars! After going 2-0 in London, it’s time to get a win in DUUUVAL! There’s no better time than against former vibes legend Gardner Minshew. Now yes, in games primarily played by Minshew the Colts are 3-0. Minshew is an extremely accurate short and intermediate thrower. The Jaguars are below the league average in sending a blitz, and this is how to beat Minshew. Minshew is great when the play breaks down, so it’ll be important to keep him in the pocket. He also does his work over the middle in spaces occupied by linebacker Devin Lloyd who will be back from injury, and budding star safety Andre Cisco. The Jaguars are also holding teams to 3.7 yards a carry, and Travon Walker has taken his heat as a pass rusher but he’s been excellent vs the run. Dwayne Smoot will also be back for the Jags and their nose tackle DaVon Hamilton is trending to playing. The Jags strengths on defense line up well vs a Colts team led by Minshew.
Trevor Lawrence next step to being the quarterback he was projected to be is consistency. He was great in London and really shined on 3rd downs. The Jaguars were having a hard time running the ball outside of chunk plays, and the Colts have fared well vs the run, but the Jags will have to exploit their weak secondary. They are bottom third in opponent completion percentage and in yards per throw. If Lawrence plays like he did in London we are looking at a 300 yard game out of him. Not having Zay Jones is a big loss for the Jags, but the combo of an outside Ridley, and an inside Engram and Kirk should be enough to have this Colts secondary scrambling. Once the Jags get in the red zone they have to continue in their London form. The Jags scored in three of their four times in the red zone over the two games, with the one time not scoring the only mess up LT Cam Robinson had, and Trevor just didn’t see the defender coming from the blindside. The Jags missed their opportunity vs the Chiefs, they let the Texans punk them after, but now that they reset in London they got their swagger back, and Sunday they’ll look to sweep the Colts.
Jaguars 27 Colts 17
Buccaneers +3.5 vs Lions
The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in football, but this Bucs run defense is serious. Rookie Calijah Kancey will help bolster a Bucs dline that has Vita Vea, Joe Tryon and Shaq Barrett, and linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David are behind these men. It looks like the Lions will not have change of pace back Jahmyr Gibbs, which didn’t bother them last week but that was vs the Panthers. The Bucs can key their front seven on stopping the efficient Montgomery. The first three weeks he averaged 3.8 yards a carry which just isn’t good enough, although he did chop off 5.7 yards a carry last week. I think the Lions will miss Gibbs this week because the speed on the Lions just won’t stretch the Bucs like they should. It’ll be interesting of the Lions can dominate the middle of the field this week. AmonRa St Brown is all-world but he did miss last week for an ab injury, and Sam Laporta has a calf injury. These two own the middle especially off of play action. The Bucs dline is a strong unit, so the linebackers shouldn’t have to overpursuit on the run game, so having them play their game and the Lions banged up in the middle, should be advantage Bucs. The key will be if Baker Mayfield can continue to turn around his career. He’s been managing very well this season, throwing 7 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and just had a bye week to reground and continue to gel with his new teammates. The Lions have a great defensive line, but their secondary isn’t exactly ball hawks. Baker will have to handle the pressure and make the throws he’s been making. The Lions value possessions, controlling the ball a 4th best 55% of the time, so Baker will have to value the ball to counter that, and he has. The Bucs, off a bye, host a banged up Lions team, and I think the home team squeaks by.
Bucs 23 Lions 20
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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