Volume Five

Recap
South Carolina +12 at Tennessee – Miss. Tennessee 41-20
Kentucky -1 v Florida – HIT! Kentucky 33-14
Bills -2.5 v Dolphins – HIT! Bills 48-20
Giants +1 v Seahawks Miss. Seahawks 24-3
Season record 5-5-1
NFL 3-2-1
NCAAF 2-3

I like the college football board this week, I just don’t love it. I think Texas wins and covers vs Oklahoma, but then again it’s such a big rivalry game that the added emotion has me off. Ohio State is off a bye after a great win at Notre Dame, but their offense feels a step below elite. I like to think Maryland covers the +20 but the bye week factor had me lay off. This Boston College team feels at a tipping point and Army’s efficient rush attack makes me think Army wins and covers the -3. I’m high on Syracuse but I think this is a bad spot for them. They had to play Army two weeks ago, a big cut block team, and hosted Clemson last week who is another physical team. Since I’m high on Cuse I don’t want to bet against them, but I think UNC rolls. Wazzu I think is just a step below Washington and USC in the Pac12, and are a legit top10 team, but +3.5 at UCLA has me gunshy, I’d think of buying the half point for a flat 3. We don’t buy hooks here at the Korner! Lastly, I think Notre Dame bounces back for a more convincing win after squeaking by Duke. Louisville is 5-0 but they haven’t impressed me, especially last week barely beating NC State. All in all, I like these plays but there wasn’t a love factor. Instead, I’ll just give my Rutgers thoughts for college football. BOL!

Wisconsin -13 v Rutgers
Rutgers has played one road game and in that game they scored on their opening drive and that was it. Now, this was vs #2 Michigan so it isn’t saying much, but this young offense still has plenty of room to grow. Wisconsin is still big ole Wisconsin, and these two running backs are averaging a great 6.6 yards per carry (Mellusi is hurt, but Braydon Allen is still HIM). I love this Rutgers defense, but they rely on speed. We might see them get pushed around this week vs the size of Wisconsin. I’m not a fan of this matchup for Rutgers, I think the size will catch up to them, and they are going against the future Big Ten West champs. Wisky lost by 9 on the road to Wazzu who is a top10 team. More detail next week in a must win vs Michigan State, but I think it’s an ugly as can be game where we are a step or two out of it.
Wisconsin 27 Rutgers 10

Jaguars +5.5 v Bills
The Bills are winning 123-33 in their last 3 games, holy cow that’s a stretch! They head to London where I think they’ll slow down. The Jaguars played in London this past week, and are staying there to prepare for the Bills. To me, avoiding the travel over the Atlantic is an advantage for the Jags. The Jaguars will also be getting their Left Tackle Cam Robinson back and this will really benefit the run game. The Jags have a hole at left guard and it’s not an ideal replacement but current swing tackle Walker Little will bump inside for Robinson to go back to LT. The Bills are giving up a league worst 6.3 yards per carry, so I expect the Travis Etienne breakout game this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence was one of the most turnover happy quarterbacks to begin his career, but in his last 13 regular season games he’s only thrown 4 interceptions. If the run game gets going, and Lawrence takes care of the ball, he can neutralize this amazing Bills defense. This is also a banged up Bill’s defense, as star corner Tre White is out, and if Von Miller and Jordan Poyer play they will not be 100%. If the Jags cover this week it’ll be thanks to their secondary. One of the more underrated corners in the league is Tyson Campbell. Diggs is approaching unguardable territory, but to keep Diggs under 100 yards will be the goal. Safety Andre Cisco is breaking out this year as well. He is known for his physicality, but this year he has 3 pass break ups and 2 interceptions. These two will have to bring their game to keep Allen in check. The Jags offense has disappeared in two games, but they are taking care of the ball, and are the least penalized team in the NFL. Keep it clean and keep it close.
Bills 27 Jaguars 24

Falcons -2 v Texans
These two teams are going in opposite directions, but I think that creates value. Shout out CJ Stroud, the rookie is killing it and I think the Ohio State QB curse is just about all but broken. Also shout out to this Texans offensive line, who has left Stroud untouched the last two games. The first two weeks he was sacked 11 times, but these men have played their ass off lately. The Falcons are on pace for 21 sacks, which is god awful, but I can see them getting to Stroud with how banged up this line has been. The Falcons also will throw out a good secondary so I expect Stroud to drop dimes but nothing will be easy vs this Falcons back four. Jeff Okudah is healthy and starting to show promising signs, and AJ Terrell is a dog. The Texans found their franchise QB, but I’m gonna go with they’ll score less than 33.5 points Sunday, which is what they are averaging the last two.
Najee Harris, 14 for 71 yards, Travis Etienne 19 for 88 yards, Zach Moss 18 for 88 yards; these aren’t amazing numbers but the Texans are still giving up 4.85 yards per carry. The Falcons need to stop being cute and fully unleash Bijan Robinson this week, who is averaging 6 yards per carry. This number isn’t that skewed too, as his long is only 38. Bijan is a superstar and Desmond Ridder stinks, so the Falcons need to pound the rock. Week 1 the Falcons threw the ball 18 times and won, this is the kind of game they have to get back to, and they certainly can vs this Texans front. Ridder threw two interceptions last week, but his first 203 pass attempts before that, he only threw one interception. Last week in London wasn’t the norm, the norm is Ridder being conservative, and the Falcons slowly moving the chains on the backs of rushing and play action. This Texans team is up and coming, but I do not think they go on the road and come home victorious.
Falcons 22 Texans 17

Saints +1 at Patriots
After being on the brink of 3-0, the Saints have been outscored 44-9 in their last 5 quarters. Derek Carr was out for the 2nd half vs the Packers, and clearly still hurt vs the Bucs last week. Well, another week has gone by and he should be healing now. This Saints team has weapons, Alvin Kamara is back and Chris Olave is a budding superstar. The Patriots just traded back for JC Jackson who was a healthy scratch on the Chargers who have been awful on defense. That’s how bad it’s been for the Patriots secondary though, that they’ll try anything with rookie corner Christian Gonzalez being out. If this Saint’s team cannot push the ball vs this Patriots defense I might have to give up on them.
And the Offensive side for the Patriots hasn’t been much better. After breaking out last year, Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and the Pats had to bench Mac Jones last week. They always say “defense travels” and this good Saints unit should be just fine this Sunday. The Saints have 9 sacks and 6 takeaways the first four weeks and the Patriots have given the ball away 7 times. Coaching is so important, but if Belicheck wasn’t the coach of the Pats this team would be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. This is a perfect opportunity for the Saints to get back on track.
Saints 21 Patriots 18

Thank you,
Goose