Volume Four

Recap
Notre Dame +3.5 v Ohio State – HIT! Ohio State 17 Notre Dame 14
Steelers +2.5 @ Raiders – HIT! Steelers 23 Raiders 18
Season record 3-3-1
NFL 2-1-1
NCAAF 1-2

Kentucky -1 v Florida
Florida had a very good win hosting Tennessee, but Tennessee just can’t crack the code and win in the Swamp, plus I’m starting to think Tennessee is on the overrated side. Kentucky hasn’t exactly played anyone notable this year, but I’m loving their efficiency. They are picking up 7.2 yards per play, have scored 100% of their redzone drives, and convert 50% of their 3rd downs, which is 14th best in the Nation. I can’t leave out that Kentucky has turned the ball over more than I liked but Florida has taken the ball away once in their four football games. In 30 games for North Carolina State Devin Leary threw 16 interceptions, so the 5 interceptions in 4 games is a concern for the transfer, but he’s shown the ability to take care of the ball, and I believe he will vs Florida on Saturday.
What I’m real excited for is how I believe this Kentucky defense will perform. Florida is getting sacked 9% of their drop backs which is 24th worst in the Nation. Trevin Wallace has a sack in three of Kentucky’s first four games, and I’m seeing a fourth in five games in his future. He did not find the quarterback last week vs Vanderbilt but the pressure from him and others caused Vandy’s QB to throw three interceptions. Leary doesn’t have a history in turnovers but Florida’s quarterback does. Graham Mertz only threw one this season but in his last 25 games at Wisconsin he threw 22 interceptions. Kentucky’s strength is their defense having 8 takeaways in four games, and I look for them to win the turnover battle Saturday and steal a possession or two.
Kentucky 23 Florida 20

South Carolina +12 at Tennessee
Saturday night will be a black-out in Tennessee, but I’ll tell you why I think Tennessee’s season will go night-night. First off, South Carolina will look to air it out, and that is how to attack Tennessee. The Vols have played two backup QBs from Virginia and UTSA, played Austin Peay, and a respectable Florida. Teams are still completing 67.5% which is a bottom 20 pass defense. Spencer Rattler is completing 74% of his throws and his only two interceptions come at Georgia in the 2nd half when they were trailing. Rattler came in to college as “the next up” when he was at Oklahoma and after a transfer and settling in at South Carolina he is starting to show why. His win vs Mississippi State he threw 18-20 and managed an excellent game. In his two losses he threw 30-39 for 359 vs #15 UNC and was leading #1 Georgia 14-3 leading them to two 70 yard drives in Georgia. I’m expecting South Carolina to put up 30+ points in Tennessee.
On defense South Carolina is physical and can stop the run. Mighty Georgia averaged 4.3 yards per carry on them. This isn’t last years Tennessee offense, Heupel is an A+ coach, but Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt aren’t walking through that door. Joe Milton is a 60% at best passer, and this team relies on their running backs. South Carolina is holding teams to 3.7 yards per carry so I expect Tennessee down a decent amount from their 230 rushing yards average. While South Carolina’s pass defense isn’t something to tout, I’d want Milton having to throw against me rather Tennessee run wild. With strength on strength, I’ll take South Carolina’s defense to travel and make points harder to come by. I really think South Carolina gets the outright upset, but I’ll obviously take the 12 points
South Carolina 31 Tennessee 30

Bills -2.5 v Dolphins
A wise bettor once said “you’re never as good as your last win and you’re never as bad as your last loss” and we just saw the Dolphins beat the Broncos 70-20. Now, this very well may be a historic offense, there’s speed everywhere and McDaniel brought a system that his team now understands, but the combined record for the teams the Dolphins beat is now 2-7. This Bills secondary has the firepower to at least slow down the Phins, and a big part of that is their two safties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The Dolphins have been amazing at using the middle of the field with xfactor Tyreek Hill and others, but these two should cause some disturbance. The Bills will yet again be with Von Miller, but edges Lenoard Floyd, Epenesa, and Greg Rousseau have held their own, and Ed Oliver has given good pressure up the middle. The Bills are a speed finesse defense, they built their defense to defeat the Chiefs. Last year in the playoffs the Bengals punked the Bills, but a lot of that was being physical in the run game. Miami has an excellent run game, but again, they aren’t going to win up the middle, they will run more outside zone. Dolphins will get theirs, they are too good to be held under 20, but the Bills have the speed to compete.
On offense, James Cook is beginning to emerge for the Bills. This is a huge development as Josh Allen hasn’t had a reliable run game his young career. The threat of Cook, who’s averaging a nice 6.9 ypc the last two, means teams have to get another defender in the box vs Allen. In turn, this has opened up things for Gabe Davis, who has two touchdowns his last two. You’ll always have Diggs in the middle, but to have the run game and Davis going makes this Bills team role. The Dolphins have the talent on defense, but through three games they have yet to have a guy get over one sack. Three of their five turnovers came in the 70-20 beatdown vs the Broncos and teams are completing 68% of their passes vs them. They will get stronger once Jalen Ramsey returns but they are vulnerable on pass defense for now. Some people just have team’s numbers, and Josh Allen is 8-2 vs Miami. I look for the Bills to win a high scorer on Sunday, just edging the Dolphins.
**Welp. Jodan Poyer is ruled out. That’s a miss by me, I thought he’d be good to go. Taylor Rapp is a player, but the duo of Hyde and Poyer are lethal. All be all, I’m still with the home team Bills. We aren’t stopping the Dolphins, we are just looking to slow them down. Tua is the MVP front runner, but Josh Allen is the better quarterback. Game on.
Bills 31 Dolphins 27

Giants +1 v Seahawks
The Giants have their backs against the walls going to Miami and to Buffalo the two weeks after. This Monday night, after a mini bye as they played last Thursday, is essentially a must win. Seattle is getting healthy, getting back players like Jamal Adams and tackle Charles Cross, but they have the daunted West Coast to East Coast travel. Jamal Adams is a great blitzing box safety, but that won’t stop their leaky secondary. Seattle is giving up about 30 points a game and this is a great spot for the Giants to burst out. Look, they got embarrassed by the Cowboys and the Niners, but those are two Super Bowl contending teams. When the game sped up vs Arizona, Daniel Jones was slinging it. With or without Saquon, Jones has to push the ball down the field and Daboll has to stay aggressive. Seattle has two excellent cornerbacks with Tariq Woolen coming back joining Devon Witherspoon, but you aren’t putting a corner on Darren Waller. Waller will have to make the most of his 7-10 targets and I see a 100 yard game in his future. Seattle will utilize a moving pocket throughout the game and over the last two seasons Geno Smith has only been sacked about twice a game. Giants haven’t been getting much quarterback pressure anyways so I think this weakness for the Giants won’t be a crucial part of this game. The Giants have shown the ability to win shootouts, beating the Vikings in the playoffs last season, and scoring 31 in the second half week 2 vs the Cardinals, so I have the confidence with their backs against the wall in week 4 that they can win another shootout.
Giants 30 Seahawks 26

Thank you,
Goose