Volume Two

We are one week in the books for the NFL and two weeks in the books for college football! Over the next three or so weeks we will begin to have our opinions molded on how these teams will fare in the 2023/24 season. One week isn’t enough to see if the Bills are cooked, or if the Rams are back to the playoff picture. Two weeks isn’t enough to see if Rutgers is a top25 program as they’ve played two softer opponents yet won 60-14 those games. It’s important to watch as much ball as possible in September to really set yourself up for the betting marathon.
Enter my lovely Fiance’s birthday 🙂 My Saturday and Sunday will be spent celebrating her, watching no ball. I’m not complaining at all, I’m thrilled because she is the most amazing person ever. I just will have to rely on box scores after this week to mold my opinions. Saturday we’ll go to a nice winery and then dinner, and Sunday we’ll have a 2:30pm early dinner late lunch. She’s a special one who has my whole heart, and I’ll gladly miss a Rutgers home game vs Virginia Tech, and the Jaguars taking on a Chiefs team who are the hunted ones.
Let’s see if we can finally cash a play and get on the board. My wallet could use it in anticipation of the weekend.

Recap
Saints -3 vs Titans – Miss. Saints 16 Titans 15
Season record 0-2
NFL 0-1
NCAAF 0-1

Rutgers -7 vs Virginia Tech
Rutgers was a combined 12.5 favorites vs Northwestern and vs Temple. Rutgers won those two games 60-14 where Northwestern scored their touchdown down 24-0 with 19 seconds left in the game. Virginia Tech had a respectful loss, losing to Purdue, but the noise is so loud to change quarterbacks. Starter Grant Wells isn’t 100% due to an ankle injury, and fans are ready to give the backup a chance. Backup quarterback Kyron Jones is a dual threat quarterback transfer from Baylor, which is a total opposite from Wells. Virginia Tech is one of the worst rushing teams in college averaging 1.9 yards a rush, and a lot of that is due to the VaTech offensive line. I just don’t think Jones will be able to be utilized well in this system due to the poor line and pass heavy play call. Rutgers has played very well vs two pass heavy teams and I expect the same results to continue. The defensive line is smaller for Rutgers but there’s speed on all three levels. They are giving up 1.7 yards per rush and have four interceptions in the early part of the season. I think Rutgers will need to score more than 14 for a win with this defense, and the way the new OC is calling the plays I like those chances. Ciarrocca has been run heavy but when he is designing these pass plays they feel like there isn’t a lot of risk. A lot of comebacks on the outside and crossing routes. It would be nice to unleash Sam Brown but running back Kyle Monongai just ran for 150 yards vs Temple. All in all I think these are two teams going in opposite directions and I feel Rutgers is still being disrespected behind their speed defense that will get exposed vs the bigger Big Ten teams but against an ACC team they will be more than fine.
Rutgers 23 Virginia Tech 13

Toledo San Jose State Over 57.5
Through five games, these two offenses are beginning to cook. San Jose State had two tough tasks, going to USC and hosting Oregon State. The Oregon State game wasn’t the prettiest, but man is that a stingy defense. San Jose State scored four touchdowns vs USC and had zero turnovers. Some will point to last year’s USC defense and wonder why I call this a tough matchup, but when we’re talking about a Mountain West team like San Jose State, to play against that kind of speed is tough. They then scored seven offensive touchdowns vs Cal Poly and had zero turnovers there as well. This team takes care of the rock when not extremely overmatched and they convert. Every time San Jose State has touched the red zone they scored, having one field goal and thirteen touchdowns. This offense throws the ball forty times a game, which is top-25 in the nation, and when they do run the ball, they get 5.2 yards per carry which is 27th best in the nation. Running the show is nothing new for quarterback Chevan Cordeiro as this is his sixth season playing, and second at San Jose State where he had 32 touchdowns and only 6 turnovers.
Toledo will have to put up points Saturday. They are a more run based team, and luckily for them San Jose State gives up 5.2 per rush. With San Jose State’s defensive line and Toledo’s style, I don’t see why Toledo cannot rush for at least 200 yards, as they are averaging 186 yards a game. Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn knows his role and that is to manage. In his 27 starts he’s thrown 14 interceptions, and he is facing a team who has yet to record a takeaway in their first three games. Expect Toledo to play their style and a clean game.
Toledo 35 San Jose State 28

Falcons -1 vs Packers
The Falcons went and drafted Kyle Pitts with the 4th overall pick and Drake London with the 8th overall pick and threw the ball 18 times last Sunday. But you know what? They won! Since 2019 the Packers have had a bottom 10 run defense and this is a big reason why the Niners have been their kryptonite. Enter Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. I expect these two to again carry the load for the Falcons as they just ran for 131 yards on 25 carries and had two rushing touchdowns. Sure, the Falcons might’ve used high draft capital in the pass game, but they keep the ball on the ground and in five games Desmond Ridder has yet to throw an interception. Small sample size, but he is 3-0 at home completing 71.6% of his passes. As frustrating as this Falcons offense is, especially to the fantasy football community, they play a winning style.
The Packers will come in to this game behind a good offense as well, but Christian Watson and Aaron Jones did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to hamstring injuries. The Falcons aren’t the strongest run defense but with Aaron Jones trending to not play this would be a big Falcons advantage. The secondary for the Falcons is their strength on defense. To go along with rising star AJ Terrell at corner, they brought in Jeff Okudah and Tre Flowers, and spent big money on safety Jessie Bates. Jordan love completed 15 passes for 245 yards, or 16.33 yards per completion. I’m counting on this secondary, led by their new defensive coordinator to prevent the chunk plays from Love. The Packers won the turnover battle by two against the Bears on Sunday, and now play a team who really values possessions. I look for Atlanta to continue to be disciplined and grind out a win.
Falcons 21 Packers 17

Steelers +2.5 vs Browns
The Browns looked on the money on Sunday, and the Steelers did not. The Niners ran for 190 yards on 32 carries at Pittsburgh, while the Browns ran for 206 yards on 40 carries vs the Bengals. I do not expect the Browns to run this wild on the Steelers this Monday night though. The Browns have a great rushing attack, but even the best rushing attacks rarely crack 200, and the Steelers are too talented on defense to get punked back to back weeks. What I do expect, is for Deshaun Watson to stay mid and not crack 200 yards passing. I was the biggest Watson fan in college, stayed neutral on him on the Texans because I’m a Jags fan, but since the sexual assault allegations, and moving to Cleveland, he is averaging 180 yards passing a game. It’s only been seven games, but this might be closer to the new norm than when he led the league throwing for 301 yards a game in Houston.
In 2022 Pittsburgh gave up 108 yards on the ground, and 20 points a game. Year by year things change in the NFL, but Sunday wasn’t what a Steelers defense normally looks like. Cam Heyward is out for the Steelers but so is All-Pro tackle Jack Conklin. This should have TJ Watt freed up to single handedly take over this game. The Steelers were a mess on offense Sunday. They went punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, all in three plays each drive. Kenny Pickett and the boys finished too efficient last season, and had a great preseason for last Sunday to be their normal offense. They have to establish the run, and establish it early. Cleveland brings a great pass rush with them, but last year they gave up 4.7 yards per rush, which was 25th, and they gave up 75 yards but only on 17 carries to the Bengals. You attack this Browns team on the ground, and with the Steelers upgrades on the offensive line this year I think they are ready for that. The loss of Diontae Johnson in the passing game isn’t a big one to me, as Allen Robinson emerged for a bright spot for the Steelers. They still have George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, so Pickett will have plenty of weapons. I believe without the rainy conditions that the Browns pressure won’t be as efficient as their dominating win vs Cincinnati. I believe it will be the Steelers who come out victorious.
Steelers 21 Browns 20

Thank you,
Goose