Whether you’re in a free league, a home league, or a big money league, we all play to win. Below will be my road map as I attempt to navigate this season. Before I get into my rankings, I want to say that this is based off of standard Quarterback scoring, and .5 PPR (half a point per catch). I feel so many leagues add their own twist to scoring, and Fantasy Football is supposed to be fun so why not, but please make sure to check your scoring before your draft.
Best of luck, and let’s get some championships. As always, let me know if you’re on board with something or utterly disagree!
Quarterbacks
Tier 1. Patrick Mahomes / Josh Allen / Jalen Hurts / Lamar Jackson / Joe Burrow
Tier 2. Justin Herbert / Justin Fields / Deshaun Watson / Trevor Lawrence
Tier 3. Tua Tagovailoa / Daniel Jones / Aaron Rodgers / Anthony Richardson / Jared Goff / Geno Smith / Kirk Cousins / Dak Prescott
Tier 4. Russell Wilson / Matthew Stafford / Derek Carr / Kyler Murray / Bryce Young
Patrick Mahomes is a tier above anyone else. It feels like he has no bad weeks, and his good weeks are other quarterbacks great weeks. He’s a true “set it and forget it” QB. I rank Josh Allen over Jalen Hurts because we’ve seen it multiple years with Allen. Jalen Hurts may very well be a superstar, but I cannot get the 2021 playoff game vs the Bucs out of my memory. He looked flat out bad. He has a stacked roster, and is a very efficient runner, but I’m not confident he performs at an MVP level again. He’s still third because he has 23 rushing touchdowns in his last 2 years. Lamar would be second on my list if it weren’t for him missing 10 games the last two years, but I think the risk is worth the reward, you just have to make sure you have a backup quarterback with Lamar. Whereas with Josh Allen and Hurts, I believe you will not have to use a bench spot on an additional quarterback. I’m very interested in targeting Joe Burrow. His teammate Jamar Chase said he’ll miss four games. I can live with that and pair him with a high level tier 3 guy, especially if I can wait an extra round to draft Burrow now.
Tier 2 I think is my sweet spot. Here you can build a more complete roster, and bank that QB 6-9 outperforms his ADP. All four of these QBs have great potential baked in with some good risk. Justin Herbert finished at QB 11 last year due to the limited rushing, and throwing for 25 touchdowns compared to 38 from two seasons ago. OC Kellen Moore should revert him back to his 2021 self. Justin Fields is one of if not the best rushing quarterback, which is a huge bonus in Fantasy Football, but he threw for over 200 yards just twice last season. He has better receiver weapons this year, but banking on 60/90 rushing yards adds more injury risk and more risk for dud weeks. Deshaun Watson was a Fantasy star in Houston, but with weather concerns in Cleveland, and poor performance in his six games last season, I’m not sure what Watson we are getting. Then there’s the Prince Who Was Promised aka Trevor Lawrence. He had three 300 yard passing games in his first 27 games. Then the bye week happened and he had 3 in his last 7, with 12 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing, and 2 interceptions. Does Lawrence continue where he left off? Does he blossom into a superstar? Adding Calvin Ridley will help, and being in Doug Peterson’s system for another year will help, but for 75% of his 2 year career he hasn’t shown it, just his most recent 25%.
In Tier 3 we have good fill in Quarterbacks. Tua has the injury risk, Daniel Jones has great spike weeks when he gets his passing yards to go with his rushing, and Aaron Rodgers could have a Tom Brady-esque resurgence on the Jets. If you draft Joe Burrow, I recommend teaming him up with Geno Smith. The Seahawks open up with the Rams, @ Lions, Panthers, @ Giants. Those first two matchups are excellent QB matchups, and the Panthers / Giants are no juggernaut in the secondary. Then week 5 we expect Joe Burrow to come back. Every year I flip on Dak Prescott. Last year I was high on him, and had a Cowboys Super Bowl ticket. It isn’t the interceptions that are scaring me away, but it’s the non existent rushing numbers since the ankle injury and the coaches comments that he wants to run the ball more this year. I’ll pass on him, and if he performs he performs, but it won’t be for me. Let me explain why Anthony Richardson is my QB #13. If you believe you have a stable starter, like Justin Herbert, and want to draft a backup Quarterback, there’s no QB with higher upside than Richardson. He can throw the ball 90 yards and runs a 4.4 40, while being 6foot4 and 240 pounds. He completed 54% of his passes his last year in college which is abysmal, but his physical gifts are undeniable. In a standard 12 team league, he isn’t trusted enough to be a top 12 starter, but he is my #1 backup.
Tier 4 are all waiver wire guys who just do not have the passing or rushing upside to be starting weekly. Even when Kyler Murray returns from his ACL injury, I won’t be rushing to pick him up. What made him fantasy special was those rushing yards and all those rushing touchdowns. Now the QB is coming off an ACL injury, so who knows where the rushing will be.
I can see myself looking to draft Mahomes. It’s always hard to predict who will jump on quarterback first, and when, but he is a gamechanger in my opinion. A combo of Joe Burrow and Geno Smith fancies me if I feel Burrow drops due to him missing some time. But my likely scenario is rolling with Deshaun Watson and/or Trevor Lawrence. Both have huge potential, and Quarterback is deep so if they dud I’ll just have to play off the Waiver Wire.
Running Back
Tier 1. Christian McCaffrey / Bijan Robinson / Austin Ekeler / Saquon Barkley / Nick Chubb / Tony Pollard / Jonathan Taylor / Derrick Henry / Rhamondre Stevenson / Josh Jacobs
Tier 2. Jahmyr Gibbs / Travis Etienne / Joe Mixon / Aaron Jones / Najee Harris / Breece Hall / Kenneth Walker / Alex Mattison / JK Dobbins / Miles Sanders / Cam Akers / Rachaad White / James Conner / Alvin Kamara / D’Andre Swift / Isiah Pacheco / David Montgomery / Dameon Pierce
Tier 3. Javonte Williams / Dalvin Cook / AJ Dillon / Antonio Gibson / Khalil Herbert / Brian Robinson / Samaje Perine / Damien Harris / Elijah Mitchell / Jerrick McKinnon / Zach Charbonnet / Ezekiel Elliot / James Cook / Jeff Wilson Jr / Kenneth Gainwell / De’Von Achane / Jamaal Williams / Raheem Mostert / Rashaad Penny / Tyler Allgeier
Tier 4. Devin Singletary / D’Onta Foreman / Jaylen Warren / Chuba Hubbard / Jerome Ford / Gus Edwards / Tank Bigsby / Roschon Johnson / Zamir White / Kendre Miller / Joshua Kelley / Cordarrelle Patterson / Kareem Hunt / Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffrey remains the RB #1 for me. His volume might go down but the Niners system is so efficient that this can keep him healthy and he’ll always have spike weeks. I am very excited to see what Bijan Robinson can do in this league. His Head Coach was Derrick Henry’s OC so he knows how to use a workhorse, and they had a very efficient rush attack last year. Now they add one of the most polished prospects of recent years, and he’ll have a very good offensive line paving the way. I’ll list Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs in Tier 1 but I’m not confident in them. Taylor is a combination of lingering injuries and a contract dispute, even having his agent call out the owner. Josh Jacobs I can very well see missing time because of him being franchise tagged on what could be a very bad Raiders team. Why waste your legs on one of the worst coached teams under Josh McDaniels. But, this was last year’s RB #3 so there is a lot of reward in the risk, he’s a borderline first round talent if he reports “today.” I’m also going to be hesitant in drafting Derrick Henry. At some point the 300+ workload which has been the case in 3 of the last 4 years, has to break him down, right? He’s a Hall of Fame running back, and as physical as it gets, but I’ll take other options as I am worried for the “fall off a cliff” season. Recent football news is that Zeke Elliot has signed with the Patriots. There are about 145 carries available for the Patriots backfield, all while Rhamondre Stevenson can still get his 210 carries, and all while he still has check-down king Mac Jones giving him 88 targets in the passing game. I am still very high on Rhamondre, and have last years RB #7 ranked as this year’s RB #9.
Tier 2 has a lot of talented backs, just with a few more question marks. If Bijan Robinson wasn’t in this draft class, would this year’s #12 draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs get more hype and attention? I’m all in on the dynamic rookie, but I am slightly concerned with David Montgomery there probably getting goal line work. Then again, rookie Alvin Kamara was a stud even with Mark Ingram getting work. I wish Travis Etienne was more involved in the Jaguars pass game, but the burner is a great pure runner who should face light boxes. If you love volume then Najee Harris is your guy. Not many RBs have Derrick Henry workloads but Harris is one. It’s just his volume isn’t the most efficient. Later in Tier 2 are my targets, as I’ll probably sneak in some receivers in the early rounds. Alex Mattison, JK Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Cam Akers, Rachaad White, James Conner, Alvin Kamara. Give me two of these guys rounds 4-6. They seem to have limited competition in their backfield and should be volume hogs. They all seem to have a good floor as the touches will be there, and with the touches means they can pop to an RB1 as the season goes on. Alvin Kamara might miss 3 games to start the season, but rookie Kendre Miller must not be looking too good if they wanted to sign Kareem Hunt, so you might be weak for your opening 3 games but come playoff time you can have a real weapon.
Tier 3 we get in to RB 3’s / Flex / Bench players. Dalvin Cook goes to a great football spot but I’m struggling to see how this will go in Fantasy. Breece Hall will be off to a slow start most likely as he recovers from injury, so Cook can flash out the gate, but as the season goes on, this should be the Breece show. Cook is still a good running back, but his yards per carry have dropped for the last 3 seasons. Another RB I’m not sold on is Dalvin’s brother James Cook, who is on the Bills. The Bills want to make him a three-down running back, but James Cook in his last five seasons (college then pros) has averaged 5.15 carries per game. Damien Harris is the running back I want in Buffalo. He is physical, has had a 15 touchdown season already, and this year will be in the best offense he’s ever played in. Antonio Gibson is a running back I have circled. Brian Robinson will be involved in the offense, but my hope is new OC Eric Bienemy will unlock Gibson. His first two years he had 21 touchdowns, and last year battled a foot injury. The dual threat running back has the potential to be used like a Percy Harvin, and now he has a legit OC. I’m expecting an uptick in catches for Gibson. The Eagles and the Dolphins have three running backs each who can make noise. I am a D’Andre Swift believer and had him in Tier 2. But the reports are Kenneth Gainwell is the lead guy there? And there are whispers that Rashaad Penny is the 3rd RB. Penny could shine behind this offensive line, taking away the hard hits Hurts was taking, and Swift is a PPR machine. I’m weary of both with the coach pushing Gainwell. As for the Dolphins, what do we do there? Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert are JAGs (Just A Guy) for the most part. Mostert had a nice Niners run but was injured more than healthy. Rookie De’Von Achane probably will start slow like many rookies do, but can be the lead guy as the season goes on, with what we know about Wilson and Mostert. If I want to shoot for upside its Achane, but if I want the early points and hope he hangs on, it’s Wilson. My biased favorite is Mostert because he’s led me to victory before, but he’s 31 years old and probably best to avoid.
Tier 4 are late round fliers, and most likely undrafted guys to me. We have a lot of rookies and handcuffs here. If something happens to Nick Chubb they probably bring in a free agent, but Jerome Ford could explode with this opportunity. I don’t think he’ll play the Kareem Hunt role to its fullest, but he looks like he’ll have a role. As a Jags fan, I don’t think Tank Bigsby is will be too fantasy relevant. I just think with lead guy Etienne, 3rd down specialist Jamichael Hasty, and veteran backup D’Ernest Johnson, there isn’t much there for Bigsby’s upside. I always liked having some bench running backs; who doesn’t like depth? But I’ll only have at most 1 in this category. Give me a Tier 1 guy, 2 or 3 in Tier 2, and 1 or 2 in Tier 3. I don’t like the “zero RB” strategy, but the “one RB” strategy with 1 workhorse and some good mid round RBs after I attack WR and either QB or TE.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1. Justin Jefferson / Ja’Marr Chase / Tyreek Hill / Cooper Kupp / Stefon Diggs / Amon-Ra St. Brown / Davante Adams / Garrett Wilson / CeeDee Lamb / AJ Brown / Chris Olave / Tee Higgins / Jaylen Waddle / Calvin Ridley / Devonta Smith / DK Metcalf / Amari Cooper
Tier 2. Jerry Jeudy / Keenan Allen / Terry McLaurin / Deebo Samuel / Brandon Aiyuk / DJ Moore / Christian Watson / DeAndre Hopkins / Christian Kirk / Chris Godwin / Mike Williams / Marquis Brown / Diontae Johnson / Mike Evans / Drake London
Tier 3. Gabe Davis / Jaxon Smith-Njigba / Jordan Addison / Tyler Lockett / Brandin Cooks / Jahan Dotson / Courtland Sutton / George Pickens / Michael Thomas / Elijah Moore / Michael Pittman Jr / Treylon Burks / Jakobi Meyers / Juju Smith-Schuster / Zay Flowers / Odell Beckham
Tier 4. Tyler Boyd / Quentin Johnston / Rashod Bateman / Allen Lazard / Nico Collins / Skyy Moore / Kadarius Toney / Darnell Mooney / Adam Thielen / DJ Chark / Donovan Peoples-Jones / Rondale Moore / Romeo Doubs / John Metchie III / Jalin Hyatt / Zay Jones / Rashee Rice / Jameson Williams / Richie James / Robert Woods
You can’t go wrong with Jefferson or Chase, but I’ll stick with Jefferson as my WR #1. One has Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon splitting touches, the other has Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Alex Mattison splitting touches. Cooper Kupp a risky pick because of injury history, and his Quarterback has injury history, but he’s the only receiver who can put up Jefferson-esque numbers. If you’re not first, you’re last so you might as well shoot for the stars with some extreme upside. I’d love nothing more than to have Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave on my fantasy team. The Ohio State boys are ready to break out into stardom and their Quarterbacks have worked with alpha’s before, most notably Davante Adams for both. Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith are all great talents but they are all WR #2s on their team. This will mean better corner matchups, but the fact that they aren’t the primary guy is a risk in the back of my mind.
I’m excited to see what Jerry Jeudy can do this season under Sean Payton. The route runner should get plenty of volume ala Michael Thomas a few years ago when he averaged 126 catches in three years. Jeudy might not pop THAT much, but Payton knows how to design plays. With Christian McCaffrey going to the Niners, Deebo Samuel’s rushing took a hit. For that, I prefer Brandon Aiyuk at cost as he averages more receiving yards and I am not banking on rushing touchdowns. I am not rushing to draft any Tier 2 receiver below Aiyuk, this will hopefully be a running back zone for me depending on how the draft board shapes up. DJ Moore and DeAndre Hopkins go to new teams that aren’t pass happy. Godwin and Mike Evans have Baker throwing him the rock now, and that didn’t go too well for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, but did go better for Landry so I prefer Godwin. Marquis Brown and Drake London have the talent as well, but their quarterbacks are suspect. I just don’t like a lot of the guys throwing to these receivers, or their opportunity in a more loaded offense.
Post-hype year bounce back for Gabe Davis? He won’t be consistent but I expect his numbers to go up. Stefon Diggs wants the ball every play but it’s best to diversify a little and keep spreading the love. I think the 93 targets will equate to a few more than 48 catches this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison should get better as they year moves on like many rookies. JSN had better numbers in college than teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, and was a year younger! Tyler Lockett has been fantasy Mr. Consistency, but I think JSN eats at his targets. With Adam Thielen gone, there is plenty of opportunity for Jordan Addison to shine. Jefferson will obviously take the defenses attention, and Addison should have some great looks. Michael Thomas is a high risk high reward kind of pick this year. Is he washed? Or can we have another 100 catch season by Slant Boy? Tier 3 can really vary depending on your league scoring. Jakobi Meyers and Juju Smith-Schuster should be better in a full point PPR as their touchdown variance is lower, while George Pickens and Michael Pittman are home run threats and not penalized if its 0 PPR. There’s plenty of talent here so know your league scoring.
Tier 4 is a good flier section. I’ve always liked Tyler Boyd as a nice floor guy to get you through bye weeks. He is also one injury away from being a WR2 if anything happens to Chase or Higgins. This might be similar for rookie Quentin Johnston. He won’t be a route runner like Boyd, but he’s a good deep threat who should be a bye week fill in, and can explode if he gets the Mike Williams role. I don’t get how Mahomes is so amazing with the receivers he has. Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Richie James: these aren’t household names but someone will have to catch passes for him. It’s hard to target Toney because he is always injured but man is that guy explosive. As a last receiver, Rice or James is a good flier to see if you can get the unknown WR #1.
As the NFL goes more and more pass heavy, receivers become more important in Fantasy. But, this also means running backs are more scarce. I won’t avoid RBs, but I would like 3 or 4 receivers in Tier 1 and 2 with 1 or 2 Tier 3 guys. When I feel I am in the middle of Tier 2, I want to attack running back, but it’s hard to predict how any draft board falls.
Tight Ends
Tier 1. Travis Kelce / Mark Andrews / TJ Hockenson
Tier 2. George Kittle / Darren Waller / Kyle Pitts / Dallas Goedert
Tier 3. Pat Freiermuth / Evan Engram / David Njoku / Greg Dulcich / Tyler Higbee / Dalton Schultz
Tier 4. Gerald Everett / Cole Kmet / Chigoziem Okonkwo / Dawson Knox / Sam LaPorta / Juwan Johnson / Dalton Kinkaid / Mike Gesicki
Tight End is a thin position, and when you’re as dominant as Travis Kelce you become a huge weapon. We just talked about how Mahomes’ receiving weapons are subpar, but then we get to Kelce. He will turn 34 though this year and I don’t see a big drop off coming, but that’s on the older side for a first round fantasy talent. A couple years ago Mark Andrews put up a season like Kelce is used to, and TJ Hockenson is in a high passing offense where he is the #2/3 target. Kelce is the best fantasy tight end, but these two come at a later cost.
A popular strategy is “Kelce or bust” as in if you don’t get Kelce wait as long as you can for tight end. There are Tier 3 names that I like but I feel Tier 2 has some very good talent. George Kittle has a mastermind designing plays for him and Shannahan does call Kittle’s number often. Darren Waller is option #1 in the Giants pass game. Kyle Pitts is all-world in terms of potential, and Ridder can’t be much worse than Mariota, right? My concern with Dallas Goedert is volume. He is in an offense with an A+ rush attack, AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, but if he drops he should be consistent with some spike weeks.
You can live in Tier 3/4 though. Freiermuth and Engram both had 98 targets last year, which I would call great volume. A Tight End that had more targets, but did less is Tyler Higbee. I’ll chalk up doing less to the revolving door at Quarterback. Higbee has Stafford back now, and it looks like Stetson Bennett will be a player if he needs to step into action. There’s depth in Tier 4. Every year multiple Tight Ends dud out, get hurt, or just simply go on bye. A lot of these guys here are touchdown dependent, and matchup dependent. Seldom do rookie Tight Ends make an impact, but this was a deeeep rookie class. Sam LaPorta goes to the high-power Lions offense where Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 weeks. Dalton Kinkaid will be behind Dawson Knox but the Bills dont have a deep receiver room. All in all, nine Tight Ends went the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft so you have to think there will be some surprises.
Cost is my biggest motive for Tight End. I don’t think I want Kelce, but if I get a stud running back late 1, and he’s magically there then sign me up. But that just won’t happen. But TJ Hockenson in the 5th, Waller in the 7th, or Evan Engram late are all possibilities. But if I have Ridley or Kirk do I want Engram? If I get Chubb or Cooper do I want Njoku? Because Tight Ends are so erratic, I don’t think I want to stack them with a receiver or running back. This is a hard position to figure out, and a make or break pick for some Championship level teams.
First Two Rounds Mock Draft
1&24 Justin Jefferson / Chris Olave
2&23 Christian McCaffrey / Mark Andrews
3&22 Ja’Marr Chase / Josh Jacobs
4&21 Bijan Robinson / Patrick Mahomes
5&20 Austin Ekeler / CeeDee Lamb
6&19 Tyreek Hill / Rhamondre Stevenson
7&18 Cooper Kupp / AJ Brown
8&17 Travis Kelce / Garrett Wilson
9&16 Saquon Barkley / Derrick Henry
10&15 Stefon Diggs / Jonathan Taylor
11&14 Nick Chubb / Davante Adams
12&13 Amon-Ra St. Brown / Tony Pollard
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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