Episode Divisional

Recap
Niners Seahawks Under 42 – Loss. Niners 41 Seahawks 23
Vikings Giants Over 48 – HIT! Giants 31 Vikings 24
Cowboys -2.5 – HIT! Cowboys 31 Bucs 14
2022 NCAAF 7-11 -5.1u
2022 NFL 14-13-2 -.3u
2018-22 223-206-10 -.6u

Chiefs -8.5 v Jaguars o/u 52.5
If we look back at the week 10 matchup between these two teams, both offenses did a good job in moving the ball. Mahomes had his standard 330 yards 4 touchdowns, and Trevor had 260 and 2 touchdowns. The Jaguars ended two possessions with missed field goals. Now we have a Jaguars team who won 6 straight with a growing Lawrence, and we have Andy Reid off a bye week, who has been historically good. Mahomes ran for 39 yards last matchup between the two and that checks out for me – the Jaguars bring good pressure but when you’re a magician like Mahomes, one crease and its an 8 yard gain. I really like the over 23.5 rushing yards prop for Mahomes. The narrative is the Jaguars cannot defend tight ends, and it is certainly true. I’ll give the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be double teamed for a good part of the game and I won’t attack his receiving yards which seems to be the most popular play in this game. I’m weary of the game total over. The Jaguars had a roaring comeback last week but they still aren’t consistently sustaining drives. A big part of their six game win streak has been the defensive line getting pressure on the quarterback also. I think Mahomes will have his way for the most part, but the DLine will be a factor. The Jags had a hellova season, and next year adding Calvin Ridley will improve them, but the road ends this weekend.
Chiefs 31 Jaguars 20

Eagles -7.5 v Giants o/u 48.5
This game would be a lot easier to cap if we knew Jalen Hurts health level. He played week 18 but didn’t have a designed run, after averaging 5 designed runs a game through the season. I’m a little surprised at this total and the movement. It opened at 46.5, went up to 48.5. First off, it’s a division game and those tend to be under’s. Secondly, these defenses rock! The Giants have gotten healthy and the Eagles almost broke the NFL sack record. And again, how healthy is Jalen Hurts? A defensive line with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Kayvon Thibadeaux will give any team struggles, I don’t care how good the Eagles OLine is. The wild part, the Eagles DLine might be better, as they had FOUR players with 10+ sacks, and Fletcher Cox clogging the middle. Saturday night is going to be physical, and I think it’ll be a close one. Daniel Jones isn’t turning the ball over lately, he moves the chains and plays a nice conservative game. The main difference is the pass catchers. The Eagles ultimately win because of the talent difference with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. These teams have a great run game, A+ defense, but the Eagles are a year ahead with the receiving corp.
Eagles 24 Giants 20

Bills -5.5 v Bengals o/u 49.5
Yes, the Bills pass rush has taken a big step back since Von Miller went out, but the Bengals will be down their 2 tackles and a guard. Joe Burrow did great last season with a poor OLine but I think this will be too tall a mountain to climb. He’ll need time for the plays to develop for Chase and Higgins, but with some expected snow I think the Bengals offense will be too slow. The Bills offense will have that same issue, except Dion Dawkins and the Bills OLine will be able to protect their quarterback better. Josh Allen is also just a better threat when running the ball. The Cam Newton clone has the speed and power to put a fear in any player in the open field. You put this game in a dome in the regular season and I’m betting over 60 points, but you add some playoff intensity with some snow and I pause at betting over. I also think the 5.5 is a little high because at the end of the day Joe Burrow is as elite as it gets. But Vegas set it that high for a reason. I can see a very close back and forth game, but I have a feeling Buffalo punches last and they end up covering. It should be a 3 point game that turns 10 at the very end.
Bills 30 Bengals 20

Niners -3.5 v Cowboys o/u 46.5
I told myself before the Cowboys Bucs game that it was Niners no matter what. Then the Cowboys played to their potential and had me thinking about this one too much. It comes down to consistency for me though. We don’t see that version of the Cowboys too often, and we’ve been seeing the Niners continue to thrive. Despite the Cowboys having a great 1-2 punch at running back, they are 20th in time of possession, while the Niners are 2nd. I’m not a fan of time of possession stats, but the Cowboys aren’t balanced enough for me, and have too many wasted plays resulting in punts. Brock Purdy will have his stiffest task of the season, but the Niners style is okay with that. Eli Mitchell is the most underrated back in the league, and McCaffery might be the best back in the league. Deebo Samuel is an x-factor, and the blocking of George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk makes this offense so hard to stop. I’d rather have Dak than Purdy but I’d rather have the Niners weapons and system.
Niners 26 Cowboys 20

Last week Favorites went 2-4 ATS and the Over went 5-1. I see this week doing a 180, as I have the favorites going 3-1 with the Under going 4-0. It’ll be a small card for me though, only 1 play. The backdoor has potential to be open for Jacksonville, Jalen Hurts health is too much of a question for me, and I respect Joey B too much for the 5.5.
Niners -3.5

Thank you,
Goose