Recap
Georgia -6.5 v Ohio State – Miss
Utah -2 v Penn State – Miss
Bears +6 at Lions – Miss
2022 NCAAF 7-11 -5.1u
2022 NFL 12-12-2 -1.2u
2018-22 221-205-10 -1.5u
Sometimes you just don’t see the board for certain periods. Well, this whole year feels like I need better glasses for the board! I’m going to break down every wild card game, through my best bets, and at the end I’ll give my card for the weekend.
Saturday can’t come soon enough. The Jags are back in the playoffs! I have a bar crawl I’m planning that starts at 1pm ahahahaha of course we are ending at Butchs for the 8pm game in DUUUUUUVAL! I’ll get my personal thoughts of the Jags game out of the way. Last week was the game. I needed the Jags to beat Josh Dobbs and the Titans. Sure, I’d like the Jags to beat the Chargers, that’s an obvious statement, but I needed the Jags over the Titans. This Jags team is young and used to losing. They just had back to back #1 overall pick seasons finishing 4-29, so to get only the 2nd AFC South crown of the franchise is a tone setter. They call Derrick Henry “King Henry” and Trevor Lawrence has been called “The Prince” so last Saturday the Prince dethroned the King. And the Jags are only getting better. This team, barring health and keeping Lawrence, really should win this division 7 out of the next 10 years. The Titans, Colts, and Texans do not have a quarterback and the Jaguars have TLaw. So yes, win a playoff game, why not! But, last Saturday marked a passing of the guard, and it’s the Jags division to rule for a little.
Saturday 430pm
Niners -9.5 v Seahawks o/u 42.5
Let’s go big sample size. Since the Niners traded for Christian McCafrey they are 10-0 winning on average 30.5-16.4. Sheesh. Both of those numbers would suggest bet the Niners and the Over. Gun to the dome I’m taking the Under though. I got divisional games at 78-120 this year for the over/under and we’ll have some weather most likely in this one with rain and 10/13 mph winds. When looking at this under I look at how these teams play. The Niners play a super conservative game, having Purdy check down, and they’ll run the rock. In the weather, the Niners should stick to game plan, and feed CMC and Eli Mitchell. The footwork might not be the cleanest with the rain so I don’t expect a moving pocket for Purdy, moreso having him hand it off 35 times instead. For the Seahawks, Kenneth Walker has been great, and so has Geno Smith. But, Geno has excelled in pushing the ball vertical to DK Metcalf. Here is where I think the biggest factor is, can Geno, in the elements, against this juggernaut defense, with playoff pressure, push the ball vertically efficiently. Geno Smith did NOT write back all regular season, but the playoffs is a new game. Both offenses will struggle in the playoff opener.
Niners 23 Seahawks 14
Saturday 815pm
Jaguars +1.5 v Chargers o/u 47.5
How the Jaguars win this game. Let’s get Travis Etienne involved, like 100 total yards involved. The Chargers have great edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, lets try and neutralize them with the run game. Sebastian Joseph Day is a BEAST nose tackle so the Jaguars will certainly have their hands full upfront. I’m not saying trick plays, but one of Jamal Agnew or Jamycal Hasty will have to make plays. These gadget players are game changers with their breakaway speed. As with any game, limit turnovers! ETN, a gadget guy, limit turnovers! Mike Williams of the Chargers is trending to not play. In my opinion, this isnt the biggest loss for the Chargers because the Jags can defend the outside, they get shredded inside. Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler could potentially feast. The Jags really need to build that slot corner, and get better safety coverage. The biggest X Factor will be which coach pulls the right strings. Doug Pederson has had some down moments but this guy did orchestrate a Super Bowl run. It seems like the risky Brandon Staley’s calls have worked against him more than they worked for him. Overall, the line feels fair. The Jags have a lot of room for growth, the Chargers are in year 3 with their quarterback. BUT … that DUUUVAL crowd will come alive on Saturday and THAT will get them over the top.
Jaguars 24 Chargers 23
Sunday 1pm
Bills -13.5 v Dolphins o/u 43.5
This will be my shortest write up. Tua is in concussion protocol, and Mostert has a thumb injury – not sure on Mostert’s status but Tua is out. I lowkey think the Dolphins cover because of play calling with their coach. Go Bills! #YouAlreadyShnow
Sunday 430pm
Vikings -3 v Giants o/u 48
The Giants get to play non 1pm Kirk Cousins?! The Giants get to play a 13-4 team with a -3 point differential?! Ahhhhh the Giants feel like a play this week. But EVERYONE is on the Giants. We know their game, limit turnovers, play defense, win the field possession, and let Saquon make a play. I think it’s huge that Saquon Barkley didn’t play last week and got to rest. That man is fatigued and is grinding this second half of the season. Let’s take a look real quick at Saquon’s first 9 games compared to his last 7. First half the Giants were 7-2 behind Saquon’s 125 yards and 6 touchdowns. His second half, the Giants were 2-4-1 on 74 yards and 4 touchdowns. Simply, the Giants go as Saquon goes and Saquon has been off for the last six quarters basically.
The Vikings have offensive talent on all levels but are not running the ball well. Cook has been a ghost 7 of the 8 last games, doing his thing in that crazy Colts comeback but outside of that he’s averaging 57 yards rushing and receiving combined. The Vikings were a team of destiny this regular season, but they are a team who’s turning it over and can’t establish the run. Still, when you have a mastermind calling offensive plays in Kevin O’Connell, when you have Justin Jefferson accompanied by Theilin, Osborn, and Hockenson, you put up points.
Give me Big Blue, and I think we see some points Sunday afternoon.
Giants 27 Vikings 24
Sunday 815pm
Bengals -9 v Ravens o/u 40.5
Another playoff game with a potential third string quarterback. Bad Goose takes exposed – I campaigned for Anthony Brown to win the Heisman last season. Thats all I really got on this matchup. The Bengals are hot and the Ravens come in banged up.
Monday 815pm
Bucs +2.5 v Cowboys o/u 45.5
Never bet against Tom Brady! Never bet against Tom Brady? Ahhhhh I’m liking the Cowboys this week. The Bucs have been off this year and a big part of that has been their offensive line. Lenny and co. haven’t been able to establish a consistent run and the passing game hasn’t been able to develop downfield much. The pass rush has been getting to Brady with the lack of interior OLine play so OC Byron Leftwich is calling too many screens and quick outs. The Bucs need time to let Evans and Godwin get through their routes and it has happened occasionally, but just not consistent enough. As good as the Cowboys offense has been, this defense is real! They have the speed on the edge, the corners whop are ball hawks, and the middle of the defense has kept the ball in front of them. It’s weird, I can see a path where the Bucs make the Super Bowl … but it’s just that offensive line that hasn’t played well. The Cowboys will put up too many points ultimately for the Bucs to compete. Dak Prescott has thrown an interception in 7 straight games which is a huge knock, but he’s also leading the Cowboys to one of the best offenses in the league. You stop the power back of Zeke? Enter the speed punch of Tony Pollard. CeeDee Lamb is a hellova route runner and is hard to shut down. Play press for CeeDee and Dalton Schultz over the middle? TY Hilton is a burner and has played well for the Cowboys. This will be a great way to end the Wild Card weekend, and America’s Team will be making their run.
Cowboys 27 Bucs 21
The Card:
Niners Seahawks Under 42
Vikings Giants Over 48
Cowboys -2.5
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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