What is up everybody! We’re about to enter the BEST time of the year. Right now we are all full of football optimism. We think our real teams have a shot at NFL glory, and we are preparing to draft teams to lead us into fantasy glory. Unfortunately in about 2007 I thought the Jacksonville Jaguars had some fire NFL jerseys and decided they would be my team! 2007 was dope, 2017 they made it back to the playoffs, but other than that it’s been miserable. I’m so thankful for fantasy football so I can finally root for winning players! My rankings go off of a QB standard scoring and .5ppr.
Quarterbacks
| Tier 1 | Josh Allen |
| Justin Herbert | |
| Patrick Mahomes | |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts |
| Lamar Jackson | |
| Kyler Murray | |
| 3 | Russell Wilson |
| Joe Burrow | |
| Trey Lance | |
| Tom Brady | |
| Dak Prescott | |
| Aaron Rodgers | |
| 4 | Matt Stafford |
| Kirk Cousins | |
| Derek Carr | |
| Trevor Lawrence | |
| Justin Fields | |
| Tua Tagoviloa | |
| Matt Ryan | |
| Jameis Winston |
Tier 1 guys are “set it and forget it.” In a one QB league you are investing a decently high pick in these three and you don’t really need a backup so you can focus on depth at other positions. Josh Allen takes the #1 spot for rushing upside / rushing touchdown potential on top of his throwing ability. Patrick Mahomes is the best NFL quarterback but I’ll take Herbert over him in Fantasy due to weapons so I’m predicting a few more yards. I honestly really wouldnt want either Mahomes or Herbert in fantasy this year since I would have to invest a pretty high draft pick in them. But, it comes down to how your draft falls and if there is any scoring changes!
Tier 2 QBs all have a valuable thing in common to me. If they play all 17 games they should be three of the top five in quarterback rushing yards. Always check your league settings but in standard ESPN you need 25 passing yards for 1 point, and get 4 points per throwing touchdown. For these rushing quarterbacks, you need 10 rushing yards for a point and get 6 points per rushing touchdown. I love Jalen Hurts for this reason. His team had the #1 rushing attack last season and they don’t have a workhorse running back. He has a real shot at being the #1 fantasy QB. Kyler Murray was my #1 QB last season coming in. He threw a ton and was very efficient of a runner. His rushing was slashed last season and he dealt with injuries. The formula is there for him to be a fantasy star but just beware of the Cardinals infamous second half slumps and Kyler’s potential unwillingness to run. All these tier 2 guys do great damage out of the pocket, there’s injury risk there so looking for a backup isn’t a necessity but it isn’t a bad idea.
Tier 3 is your “wait on it” tier. They are starting level QBs who have question marks. It might be a tough defense, it might be limited rushing upside, it could be a multitude of things so if you take a tier 3 guy I’d grab a second tier 3 QB or a tier 4 one. Russell Wilson is undervalued this year. Lets take out last season, Russell Wilson had a seven year stretch with an average finish as QB 5.25. He’s only 33 years old and has a great supporting cast around him in Denver. Trey Lance is the definition of a wild card as the Niners move on from Jimmy G. Lance is very athletic and has a cannon of an arm. He can take this offense to a new level but with him having three starts in two years it screams inconsistency. Tom Brady is averaging 41.5 touchdowns thrown his two years on the Bucs. I always get nervous drafting Brady cause the cliff year has to come soon right? The Bucs interior OLine is now a weakness and I worry Brady faces too much DLine pressure to be elite. Aaron Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP but comes in as QB12. They have an amazing run game and one of the weaker WR groups in the NFL. If he shines he shines but with no real rushing upside and that bad WR room, I’ll be out on Rodgers.
Your tier 4 guys are intriguing backups. Matt Stafford was QB 6 last year but has a “MLB Pitchers type elbow injury.” Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr have new coaches, no rushing upside, but were QBs 11 and 12 last year. They are perfect to pair with the unknown of Trey Lance. Will Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields take the next step? Both have weak receiving corps but both are super talented. Please just don’t draft Deshaun Watson. He misses 12 out of the 14 weeks of the fantasy regular season (86%) and his playoff schedule is vs Ravens vs Saints at Washington. There is no value this season. The position is too deep and there’s no point in wasting a roster spot for a quarterback who will be rusty with a hard playoff schedule.
Running Backs
| Tier 1 | Christian McCaffrey |
| Jonathan Taylor | |
| Dalvin Cook | |
| Derrick Henry | |
| Austin Ekeler | |
| Joe Mixon | |
| Alvin Kamara | |
| D’Andre Swift | |
| Saquon Barkley | |
| Najee Harris | |
| Nick Chubb | |
| Leonard Fournette | |
| Javonte Williams | |
| Aaron Jones | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | |
| 2 | David Montgomery |
| JK Dobbins | |
| Cam Akers | |
| Elijah Mitchell | |
| James Conner | |
| Travis Etienne | |
| Aj Dillon | |
| Antonio Gibson | |
| Breece Hall | |
| Josh Jacobs | |
| 3 | Devin Singletary |
| Chase Edmonds | |
| Rashaad Penny | |
| Damien Harris | |
| Kareem Hunt | |
| Miles Sanders | |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | |
| Tony Pollard | |
| Clyde Edwards Helaire | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | |
| Dameon Pierce | |
| Melvin Gordon | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | |
| James Robinson | |
| Ken Walker | |
| Michael Carter | |
| Brian Robinson | |
| Isaih Pacheco |
Tier 1 has 15 running backs in it that I personally trust. I trust that these running backs will be cornerstones to my team with an inside track in getting as many touches as possible. I had Jonathan Taylor at RB #1 for the longest, but I’m thinking what’s the chance he scores twenty touchdowns again. There has to be regression there. Often-injured Christian McCaffrey gets the nod at #1 because of his dominance when he plays. He is the only running back with 25 point potential every week. Dalvin Cook gets a great offensive mind head coach to come in, in Kevin O’Connell, and he is the best home run hitting running back with touchdown potential every touch. Sure, he has been banged up, but so have running backs like Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley have access to many check down targets, and are the best offensive weapon on their teams. There is real RB #1 potential here with their dual threats. Najee Harris led the NFL in touches last year but averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Big Ben was flat out bad in most games last year and some would say they downgraded at QB whether its Trubisky, Pickett, or Rudolph. If we decline Harris’ astronomical 307 carries and 74 catches from last year, I don’t see a path then for another top 5 season.
Tier 2 is a smaller group of ten running backs all with concerns but all are starting level fantasy running backs. The Bears are a mess, but that can help out David Montgomery who should dominate the touches. James Conner had 18 touchdowns last season which was elite but is that sustainable? He averaged 3.7 yards per carry and last year was Kyler Murray’s least rushing year. Kyler is healthy and just got a big contract so I expect him to steal some of James Conner’s red zone carries on some QB reads. Travis Etienne is on the perfect team. This running back should get plenty of dump off passes with Jacksonville expected to be trailing a lot. Game script should go in his favor when James Robinson is healthy and Etienne should get 5 catches a game to go with his 12 carries. AJ Dillon is a running back who excites me. My RB #22, he should put up good numbers with the Packers having a weak receiving core. Now, lets just say something happens to Aaron Jones, Aj Dillon’s #22 production turns into borderline top 5 stuff. He will get opportunities without injury, who can be a star if things outside of his control happen. What to do with Antonio Gibson is the biggest question to me. His first two years he finished RB 12 and 13 and last year dealt with a shin injury and still put up 1150 yards. Brian Robinson is a threat, JD Mckissic is a good third down back, but Gibson produces. I moved him down to RB #23 but I can still very well see a top 15 year so I’d take the risk at the right price.
In Tier 3 we find a lot of flex level talent due to volume of touches for the most part. Rashaad Penny was a beast and a half for the last 5 weeks of the season having four games of 100+ yards and six total touchdowns. The fifth year running back will be sharing a backfield with second round pick Ken Walker but I think Penny will be too talented to lose that many touches. If Penny starts out hot like he finished, it will be his backfield. If he doesn’t, he’ll still have opportunities as they work in the rookie. Similarly, did Devin Singletary upgrade himself from a J.A.G to an NFL talent? Over Singletary’s last six games he got nine touchdowns and took control of the backfield. Now let’s say you’re a fan of rookie James Cook. Cook is a speedster so this won’t affect Singletary’s red zone opportunities. The high powered Bills offense finally found something to lean on in the run game. I’d be leary of Cordarelle Patterson. Last year, which was year 9 for Patterson, was the first year he was fantasy relevant. He has talent but he is getting older and isn’t a traditional running back. He would truly be an outlier in the sport if he comes close to last year’s #8 finish. Look for rookie Tyler Allgeier to compliment him early and often. Tier 3 has a lot of wild cards like Miles Sanders vs Kenneth Gainwell, Damien Harris vs Rhamondre Stevenson, timeshare RBs like Chase Edmonds, Tony Pollard and Melvin Gordon. You most likely won’t strike gold here, but these running backs should produce flex like numbers.
There will be no Tier 4 guys because then it’s dart throwing and the article would be too long.
Wide Receivers
| Tier 1 | Justin Jefferson |
| Cooper Kupp | |
| Ja’marr Chase | |
| Stefon Diggs | |
| Deebo Samuel | |
| Davante Adams | |
| Ceedee Lamb | |
| Mike Evans | |
| Tee Higgins | |
| AJ Brown | |
| Ty Hill | |
| Michael Pittman | |
| DJ Moore | |
| Keenan Allen | |
| Jaylen Waddle | |
| Allen Robinson | |
| Marquise Brown | |
| Mike Williams | |
| Courtland Sutton | |
| Terry McLaurin | |
| 2 | Jerry Jeudy |
| Juju Smith Schuster | |
| Gabriel Davis | |
| D.K Metcalf | |
| Rashod Bateman | |
| Diontae Johnson | |
| Michael Thomas | |
| Darnell Mooney | |
| Chris Godwin | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | |
| Brandin Cooks | |
| Drake London | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | |
| Allen Lazard | |
| Adam Thielin | |
| Amari Cooper | |
| Elijah Moore | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | |
| Devonta Smith | |
| Kadarious Toney | |
| Christian Kirk |
Just about every team runs a three receiver set as its primary which makes the position so deep. I only went with two twenty player tiers for length concerns. Studs and Players, while leaving out bench players. These bench guys can pop, look at Amon-Ra St. Brown from last year, but I’m keying in on my top forty.
Justin Jefferson gets my #1 spot. I feel he is the most talented receiver and now has Kupp’s old OC designing plays. I rank Ja’marr Chase at #3 and Tee Higgins at #9 but I’d much rather Higgins in the mid-third compared to Chase at the late first. Over the final 10 games including the playoffs Tee was the Bengals #1 and with Chase’s home run potential, Higgins will most likely dominate the #2 corner opposite of him. Davante Adams and Ty Hill have been top-five fantasy receivers for the past few years. I can see Adams’ stats staying the same. Derek Carr is a very good quarterback, and there is talent outside of Adams, but the Packers running back room was far superior than the raiders, Darren Waller has shown times he disappears, and Renfrow is a nice slot but Adams will still command plenty of attention. Ty Hill on the other hand takes a step back, but is still WR #11 for me. I’m not that worried about going from Mahomes to Tua because Tua is no scrub, but he’ll have to split his creative touches with Jaylen Waddle. DJ Moore over the last three years has averaged 1175 yards a year. Two of those he averaged 13 yards a catch and one of those was 18 yards a catch. This shows versatility to me and he gets an upgrade this year in Baker Mayfield. Moore is one of my favorite targets to break out.
Tier 2 has some great talent but I’m only 95% sold on these guys. Which Bronco will gel with new QB Russell Wilson? Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or both? Is Gabe Davis for real? Can DK Metcalf put up numbers with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock feeding him? Can “big slot” JuJu eat with Travis Kelce eating in similar areas? Rashod Bateman looks primed to break out. Hollywood Brown demanded to leave after getting 146 targets last year. Guess that wasn’t enough, but Bateman should get 100+ targets as the Ravens #1. Darnell Mooney and Amon-Ra St. Brown are two targets that can benefit if their team stinks. Both receivers could have huge fourth quarters if their teams are constantly behind operating in garbage time. Aaron Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP. I’m banking on the departure of Davante Adams to really have Allen Lazard shine. Rodgers historically doesn’t trust yougens so Lazard is in double digit touchdown range. Kadarious Toney has the talent to be a fantasy football stud, and now he has creative coaches to get him there. Toney will be fed on routes, screens, and runs, and the volume should be too hard to ignore. He is a mid-round talent I am keyed in on.
Tight Ends
| Tier 1 | Travis Kelce |
| Mark Andrews | |
| Kyle Pitts | |
| George Kittle | |
| Darren Waller | |
| 2 | Dallas Goedert |
| Dalton Schultz | |
| TJ Hockenson | |
| Zach Ertz | |
| 3 | Cole Kmet |
| Dawson Knox | |
| Pat Freiermuth | |
| Noah Fant | |
| Albert O |
Travis Kelce finally did not finish as the #1 tight end after a nice run but he’ll stay as my #1 ranked guy with the departure of Tyreek Hill. He’s 33 years old but with his volume in a weaker position I still don’t mind a late 1st round pick on him. Like Kelce, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts are the #1 targets for their offense. Lamar Jackson and Marcus Mariota need to get their passing yards and these two should target hog.
I’m high on Dallas Goedert this season. There is AJ Brown and Devota Smith there, and it is a run first offense, but Goedert is a great security blanket who has a connection with Hurts. Talent wise, TJ Hockenson is higher then Tight End #8, but with Goff having to supply St Brown, Chark, and Williams, and the two running backs there in Swift and Williams, I just don’t know how much Hock will be utilized.
I only have nine guys in my top two tiers, and really don’t want to rely on a tier 3 guy. Kmet is in a mess of a spot in Chicago, Knox has the emerging Gabe Davis taking red zone targets, Freiermuth can play but the Steelers have three very good receivers, and Noah Fant has Geno/Lock. Albert O can be stepping into a very nice situation so he’s a good flier, but Russell Wilson never really looked at tight ends.
Well! Those are my rankings. I’m sure we disagree on most, so where do you think I’m totally off on? There’s one thing I want to leave y’all with. Average Draft Position (ADP) is a road map. All these “experts” are just educated guessing. Some have a great track record but let yourself make the picks not the guessing of what they predict. Make your own calls, get your own guys, and let’s win some championships.
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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