Recap
Raiders +5.5 – Miss. Bengals 26 Raiders 19
Pats TT u20 – HIT! Bills 47 Patriots
Bucs -8.5 – HIT! Bucs 31 Eagles 15
Cowboys -3 – Miss. Niners 23 Cowboys 17
Chiefs Steelers u23.5 1H – Miss. Chiefs 42 Steelers 21
Rams Cardinals o49.5 – Miss. Rams 34 Cardinals 11
Last Week 2-4
2021 30-35
2021 NFL 19-21 2018-21 NFL 106-88-4
2021 NCAAF 11-14 2018-21 NCAAF 94-92-4
Bengals +3.5 at Titans o/u 47.5. Kickoff Saturday 4:30pm
The Play: Titans -3.5
The Bengals are without a doubt the “hot” team this weekend. They are clicking, while the Titans kind of come in looking like one of the weaker 1 seeds in a while. I think we see a full workload of Derrick Henry, and even if we only see 15 carries, D’onta Foreman is a physical back who can give 5-10 good carries himself. The Bengals defense has been solid, but that’s been thanks to a strong defensive line bringing a great pass rush. They are weak against the run, and their aggressiveness should open up holes for the run game. Also, we don’t know the status of their best edge Trey Hendrickson. If he can’t clear concussion protocol then the Bengals have a real uphill battle to climb. When we focus on the hot Bengals offense, I’m not too confident they can rack up points vs the Titans. Coach Vrabel is elite and he will gameplan this defense. Bill Belicheck’s famous gameplan is to neutralize the other team’s best weapon and with Vrabel playing for Bill, I expect Jamar Chase to be in check. How might you ask? The Titans will need to put their #2 on Chase, and have Pro Bowl ball hawk Kevin Byard playing safety almost shadowing and cheating to Chase’s side. Keeping Chase in check, deploying King Henry, and having AJB with Julio Jones rest last week should be enough for the #1 seed Titans to prevail.
Titans 26 Bengals 20
Niners +5.5 at Packers o/u 47. Kickoff Saturday 8:15pm
The Play: Niners +5.5
We all have seen the Washington photo where Shannahan and LaFleur (and McVay) were all on the same staff. While the Niners and Packers HC’s are offensive guys, they know what to expect to tip their defense during the week of prep. I think a key will be the Niners limiting the Packers run game. Its going to be cold and AJ Dillon will be hard to tackle, but the Niners have a top10 run defense. Aaron Rodgers is going to get his, but can they keep the Packers in third and longs over third and shorts? The Packers on the other hand give up 4.7 yards per carry which was 2nd worst this regular season. Most of that damage was from running quarterbacks but their defense was still pretty swiss in the trenches. Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel will have to do what they do and get yards. The biggest mismatch is a reason why this is my least favorite play. Aaron Rodgers is just so much more superior to Jimmy G who is a walking turnover waiting to happen. But with the stout Niners front and their strong run game, I think it stays a game to the very end.
Packers 28 Niners 25 *least favorite pick*
Rams +3 at Bucs o/u 48. Kickoff Sunday 3:00pm
The Play: Rams +3 *favorite pick*
Tom Brady has won NINE straight Divisional round matchups. All streaks must come to an end though they say. Look, the Bucs at full strength beat the Rams convincingly, but I just dont see how Tampa survives with how banged up they are. No AB, no Godwin, with Jalen Ramsey lining up on Mike Evans. Playoff Lenny still feels his hamstring when he hits top gear. As I’m writing this, both Center Ryan Jensen, and RT Tristan Wirfs are questionable. Lets say they do play, I cant see how they would be 100% themselves for the matchup. The Rams DLine features Von Miller and Leonard Floyd on the edge and most importantly Aaron Donald in the middle. The way to get to Tom Brady when he was in New England was middle pressure. This just feels like a perfect storm for the Bucs offense to struggle vs a star-studded Rams defense. The Bucs defense is very strong vs the run. They’ll need to bring their A-game because somehow Cam Akers is back and feasting! Add in Sony Michel and the Rams have a great duo. I just feel they are peaking at the right time. They can take advantage of Bucs suspect secondary throwing to Cooper Kupp or Odell Beckham, or they can get physical and run the rock. The Rams feel like a force.
Rams 30 Bucs 24
Bills +2 at Chiefs o/u 53.5. Kickoff Sunday 6:30pm
The Play: Bills +2
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been to back to back Super Bowls and host Sunday night, yet on a neutral field Vegas says the Bills are the better team. Kind of wild and extremely disrespectful, but I still buy it. You know I rock with the Bills! Josh Allen has been elite since Devin Singletary has emerged. It just makes his life easier knowing he has a competent running back. And we all saw the Steff Diggs photo of him watching the confetti drop as KC won the AFC Championship last year. They trained all year for this, and after the week 5 win, they have the swagger and belief that they will come out on top. The Bills will miss Tre White badly this weekend, but their secondary is top notch with Poyer and Hyde that they should manage. They have the speed that can matchup with anyone minus Tyreek Hill and they have a nose for the ball. The game will be won on who completes the most third downs. The Chiefs complete at a league high of 53% and the Bills are second with 47.9%, but the Bills defense has been so stout only allowing the opposing team to convert at a 32% clip. The speed on the Bills defense makes the wagon go round.
Bills 28 Chiefs 27
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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