Championship weekend for College Football came way too quickly. Bowl games are a crapshoot so get your plays in this week before we have to wait for the most part till the CFB playoffs! As College Football dies down, College Basketball rises! So make sure you’re following @KowalsKorner for picks and conversations!
Recap
Michigan State +2 v Penn State – HIT!
Kentucky +3 at Louisville – HIT!
Giants +3.5 v Eagles – HIT!
Panthers -2 at Dolphins – Miss.
Broncos +2.5 v Chargers – HIT!
Ravens -3.5 v Browns – HIT!
Last Week 5-1
2021 20-23
2021 NFL 11-10 2018-21 NFL 98-77-4
2021 NCAAF 9-13 2018-21 NCAAF 92-91-4
Cowboys -6 at Saints o/u 46. Kickoff Thursday 8:15pm
The Play: Under 46
Well, this isnt the best number to catch, as 47’s and 48’s were out there. I still like the under at 46 though and think we dont have many fireworks tonight.
The Saints go to Taysom Hill this week. The same Hill that was too hurt to play on Thanksgiving. The same Hill that couldn’t relieve Trevor Siemian starts tonight for the Saints. Hill, in my opinion, is the better player and this is the right move, but its highly concerning that the dual threat QB couldnt play last week. The Saints lost last week without trying it felt like. Additionally, there is no Alvin Kamara tonight who is a top tier weapon in the NFL. A hobbled Hill, with no Kamara, will be throwing to a receiver core who lacks playmakers. The Saints weapons tonight are Mark Ingram, Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, and Marquez Callaway. There are teams with worse weapons then that, but this isn’t that good of a group.
The Cowboys will have their guys on offense but they wont be 100% either. Zeke will play but his knee is banged up. They have Pollard still which helps, but at then end of the day the Saints run defense is elite. The Cowboys will have Amari Cooper as he returns from covid, but how is his conditioning? CeeDee Lamb plays but he is coming off a concussion and I dont see how he’s 100%. Oh and Marshon Lattimore is on the other side who will be on one of these two at all times. Unfortunately, the Cowboys HC wont be at the game as he has covid, but arguably more importantly, neither will the Cowboys OLine coach. If the Saints run exotic stunts on defense, it’ll be hard for Kellen Moore to call the game and protect Dak.
There are so many factors in this game that it just feels Under. I looked in the Saints +6, but the Cowboys have my respect. It wouldnt surprise me if the Saints win outright, and wouldnt surprise me if they only put up 10 points.
Cowboys 24 Saints 20
Appalachian State -3 vs Louisiana Lafayette o/u 53. Kickoff Saturday 3:30pm
The Play: Louisiana Lafayette +3
Louisiana Lafayette lost their rising star coach to the University of Florida over the weekend. This is a big deal, but not a 6 point big deal. Lafayette is the home team, and should be a three to five point favorite, if there was no coaching drama. Appalachian State is a very talented team, I just believe Lafayette is a step above. Napier is actually still going to coach the Championship game on Saturday before he heads to Florida. Billy Napier gets it, he’s leaving for a big-time job, but still deeply cares about the program he helped build. We are talking Sun Belt Championship football here, I cant see how the Ragin Cajuns can be distracted from all this.
The keys of this game are turnovers and penalties. We went through a whole regular season, and Lafayette takes care of the ball better, and is less penalized. They played 12 games and had 6 turnovers all season, which is best in the nation. What i dont like about App State is they have a Clemson quarterback transfer in Chase Brice, who in Sun Belt standards is a touted player, but they throw the ball 42% of the time which is 103rd out of 129. They dont trust their quarterback in my opinion. Yes, they are based off the run, but when the game matters Brice shrinks.
Lafayette gets it done, behind an elite coach who is staying for one last game.
Lafayette 27 App State 21
Pitt -3 vs Wake Forest o/u 71.5. Kickoff Saturday 8pm
The Play: Over 71.5
This is the perfect nightcap, as we might creep 100 in this one. Before I break it down – go to Fanduel and bet Kenny Pickett +2000 to win the Heisman. When he has 403 yards and six touchdowns, after Bryce Young and Bama lose to Georgia, Pickett will rise and steal the Heisman.
These teams, through the 12 game regular season, have averaged 82 points a game and 1084 yards combined in a game. They are built off explosion and dont have much defense to counter each others fire power. Wake Forest has been on a tear, going over their team total seven times in the last eight games. Pitt’s offense has been wild this season, as Kenny Pickett is completing 67.7% of passes, which is good for 20th in the nation, and an average of 8.8 yards per pass which is 21st in the nation. He’s accurate and throws deep. He’s an NFL quarterback, who like every quarterback who’s faced Wake, will shred them.
Simply, this feels like such a “public” or “square” play. The sharps will probably tell you this is too many points and you have to play the under. The Goose is telling you that this is a 2014 Big12 game, where there will be zero defense, and the first team to punt loses.
Pitt 49 Wake 45
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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