Recap
UCLA -3.5 – HIT! UCLA 62 USC 33
Raiders Bengals o50 – Miss. Bengals 32 Raiders 13
2021 15-22
2021 NFL 8-9 2018-21 NFL 95-76-4
2021 NCAAF 7-13 2018-21 NCAAF 90-91-4
I have a few games I am targeting that are just missing the cut for the blog. I want to back the San Diego State vs Boise State under 44.5 I have two main problems. How will the 9am local kickoff effect these teams? Will the sloppiness add to points or to misexecution on offense. Then there is motivation / disappointment. If Fresno State loses to San Jose St on Thursday, then San Diego State represents the Mountain West west division with a win or a loss. Boise State needs UNLV to beat Air Force (18 point dogs) for a chance at representing the east division. That game isnt till after, but that has to be not the best feeling. No touch for me. Then there is UNC +6 at NC State. Sam Howell missed his home finale last week vs Wofford with an injury. I dont know his status for Friday night and just will lay off cause of the unknowns. I was also looking into Boston College +5. They will face Wake Forest who needs to win to go to the ACC Championship game, which is a ton of pressure. I would have backed BC but reports are 15 BC players have flu-like symptoms.
Penn State -2 at Michigan State o/u 52. Kickoff Saturday 3:30pm.
The Play: Michigan State +2
I am not a fan of this line movement, as I saw Michigan State opened as a -1 and now they are +2. The favorite to dog movement usually means it should be a “no touch.” Penn State is a team who will go as far as their quarterback will take them. Sean Clifford though has battled injuries this season. He exited vs Iowa a month ago, and exited vs Rutgers last week. He will start at Michigan State this week, but how healthy is he actually? This is a main factor in my Michigan State play, as we will not see a 100% Clifford.
Michigan State will be able to run on Penn State. The Penn State defense has given up decent yards all year to the elite running teams, and Kenneth Walker will be one of the best backs they play all season. Penn State has some great stats vs the run but I’ll credit that to games like last week where they limited an outmatched Rutgers team. Last week at Ohio State was a straight massacre for Michigan State, and I’d say they werent a top10 team, but this is definitely a top25 team here. The home team should be favored vs a Penn State team that has not shown to be top tier all season and has a quarterback who exited for injury last week.
Michigan State 28 Penn State 27
Kentucky +3 at Louisville o/u 57. Kickoff Saturday 7:30pm
The Play: Kentucky +3
My basic breakdown here is we have a middle-of-the-pack ACC team vs a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. Both teams are starting to click, but the SEC > ACC. Its a rivalry game here but I do not want to overthink it.
Kentucky’s offense is surging and their formula has been to hand the ball off to Chris Rodriguez and throw it to Wan’Dale Robinson. Kentucky has been able to run against SEC teams, I dont see why they cant move the ball vs Louisville this weekend. I just dont see Louisville getting chunk plays consistently vs this Kentucky defense. Malik Cunningham has been a great dual threat quarterback. I just think he cant be the main run piece of this offense to beat Kentucky. His running game will need to step up and that feels like too tall of a task to ask for.
Kentucky 31 Louisville 28
Eagles -3.5 at Giants o/u 45.5. Kickoff Sunday 1pm
The Play: Giants +3.5
Jason Garrett is fired and Freddy Kitchens steps in? He worked wonders when he stepped in for the Browns a few years ago. It’s when the move became permanent when it all went wrong. The Eagles are also surging on the other end, and have a legit path to the playoffs. This is an interesting call by me. I think the Eagles are the better team, but its a home Giants game, and they are dogs vs a divisional foe. We will take the hook and the 3.5 points, and we’ll hope it comes down to the wire.
I like this matchup for the Giants. Theyve played well last season vs the Eagles, and have a prideful coach so I expect them to get dirty in the trenches and slow down this A+ Eagles rushing offense. Statistically, the Giants have stepped up on third downs, as their secondary has gotten aggressive. I look for the Eagles to not be able to move the chains as much, when Hurts has to make a key play with his arm. The Eagles are one of the hotter teams in the NFL, but this smells like a classic “Giants lose on a last second field goal and compete” kinda game.
Eagles 23 Giants 21
Panthers -2 at Dolphins o/u 42. Kickoff Sunday 1pm
The Play: Panthers -2
The Dolphins have a great secondary, and an aggressive front 7. They played great against the Ravens, who also feature a dual threat quarterback. The Panthers have Christian McCaffrey though. Blitz the Panthers and Cam will dump it off to CMC who will be one on one vs a safety or a linebacker. Im taking CMC vs anyone one on one.
The Panthers have just as an aggressive defense themselves, and they sack quarterbacks. I think Tua has been a decent quarterback, but his arm strength will be questioned on Monday. I expect the Panthers to get after him with their line, and the cornerbacks will be ready to jump passing lanes. The Panthers, in my opinion, matchup greatly to take down the Dolphins.
Panthers 21 Dolphins 17
Chargers -2.5 at Broncos o/u 47.5. Kickoff Sunday 4pm
The Play: Broncos +2.5
Here we have the home team, off a bye week, facing a divisional foe, and they are dogs. Sort of similar to the Giants Eagles thought, but the Broncos are well rested off the bye week.
The Chargers are extremely bipolar, where one week they look like Super Bowl contenders, and the next they look to be one of the first few teams outside the playoff hunt. They need this game, but I dont think they get the victory. The Broncos have shown the ability to slow down the pass all season long, and peaked when they beat the Cowboys three weeks ago. The Chargers have Austin Ekeler but they still want to push the ball down field vertically. I dont expect many passing lanes to be open for Herbert this weekend, and I expect some frustration out of the quarterback. The Broncos have a great two headed monster at running back, with MElvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. The Chargers have a finesse defense, where they get thrashed by the run, but have the secondary to play the pass. I think the Broncos run for 175 yards this weekend, and control the clock. Give me the points, buy it up to +3 if you want to be safe, but I think the Broncos leave victorious.
Broncos 24 Chargers 23
Browns +3.5 at Ravens o/u 47. Kickoff Sunday 8:15pm
The Play: Ravens -3.5
The key factor in this game for me is timing. I feel the Browns are in complete disarray, and the Ravens are ready to bounce. Lamar’s last two games he looked pedestrian at the Dolphins, and had the flu vs the Bears. He will remind everyone he is an MVP quarterback this weekend. The Browns came in to the season looking like Super Bowl contenders, but in the last few weeks they cut Odell, got blown out to the Patriots, and should have lost to the Tim Boyle led Lions. I am fading them this week in primetime, and feel the Ravens should be a -7 favorite. The Browns might actually need Case Keenam, and when the Browns cant convert on third down, vs the best third down defense, we might have that discussion very soon.
Ravens 27 Browns 21
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
Leave a comment