Last weekend was the first weekend of the season where I bummed it for both NCAAF and NFL football! I was on my couch on Saturday from 11:45am-7:15pm and on Sunday, after my golf round, I was couch chilling from 3pm till the end of the night game. It’s been a busy football season, but that was much needed.
This weekend my adventures take me to Buffalo for the Bills-Dolphins matchup! Buffalo is coming off of a bye, facing a reiling Dolphins squad, but I dont have the guts to lay the 13.5 points and take the Bills. I’m equally excited for the Buffalo wings so lets get into the blog so I can research who has the best wings.
Recap
Alabama -25 vs Tennessee – HIT! Alabama 52 Tennessee 24
Colts +4 at Niners – HIT! Colts 30 Niners 18
2021 12-14
2021 NFL 6-6 2018-21 NFL 93-73-4
2021 NCAAF 6-8 2018-21 NCAAF 89-86-4
SMU +1 at Houston o/u 62.5. Kickoff Saturday 7:00pm
The play: SMU +1
These teams come in with a record of 13-1 but both have had a cupcake of a schedule, so it’s hard to tell who’s real and who’s fraud.
Tanner Mordecai has been SMU’s engine this season, and has been on a tear in conference play. He is throwing for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns a game, albeit against some bottom tier American conference teams. The way SMU moves the ball just feels more effortless compared to Houston. Houston is more balanced as they use 3 running backs, and the quarterback can run it a bit. Clayton Tune makes the right throws but he doesn’t wow me, only throwing 7.1 yards per pass compared to SMU’s 8.6 which is 26nd best in the nation. Offense isn’t Houston’s strong point, they are led by their defense I think. See, I don’t want to downplay Houston’s success, but both teams have had such weak schedules. I don’t think Houston’s defense is as good as the stats say they are. I think, like their opening loss to Texas Tech, Houston will not be able to slow down SMU. Houston’s secondary was able to shut down the likes of Rice, Grambling, Navy, and Tulsa. SMU is a vertical offense with a completely different tempo. The stats have this as a close game, but the eye test has me liking SMU.
SMU 34 Houston 30
Louisville +7 at NC State o/u 57. Kickoff Saturday 7:30pm
The play: Louisville +7
First off, it feels NC State should have won their game last week at Miami. They come into this matchup a little more on edge after the defeat. Still, Louisville +7 feels like the side.
Louisville’s offense is their quarterback Malik Cunningham. The dual threat quarterback is having a good season and they are on a 4-1 ATS run in their last five. The NC State run defense is their strength so that doesn’t necessarily play into Louisville’s favor, but Louisville isn’t a downhill running team. They are a zone read team and their Quarterback will have plenty of decisions to make and exploit a weakness. My favorite part about Louisville is that they finish drives. When they get in the redzone they find the endzone. When they don’t, they rarely go for it on 4th down, and they make sure they get points. I don’t like empty drives, and Louisville scores on 92% of their redzone drives. We’ll need all the points we can get.
NC State 31 Louisville 27
Steelers +3.5 at Browns o/u 42.5. Kickoff Sunday 1pm
The play: Browns -3.5
I am out on this play … for now. Baker Mayfield looks like he’ll play with a banged up non-throwing shoulder. I actually wanted Case Keenam to play because you know what you’re getting in him. Will Baker struggle or will he be his normal self? Too much risk on a Thursday to make the call.
Cowboys -2.5 at Vikings o/u 54.4. Kickoff Sunday 8:20pm
The play: Over 54.5
I am out on this play… for now. The speculation if Dak will play or not is the factor. And if he plays, will he be effective?
It comes down to these two teams being so balanced. There are elite receivers, running backs, and QBs?! Kirk Cousins has been money, and Dak is the 7 week MVP.
I’ll check back in on Sunday morning.
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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