Recap
Rutgers -2 at Northwestern – Miss. Northwestern 21 Rutgers 7
Auburn Arkansas Under 54 – Miss. Auburn 38 Arkansas 23
Nebraska -4 at Minnesota – Miss. Minnesota 30 Nebraska 23
Bengals Lions Under 48 – HIT! Bengals 34 Lions 11
Browns -3 vs Cardinals – Miss. Cardinals 37 Browns 14
Raiders Broncos Under 44.5 – Miss. Raiders 34 Broncos 24
2021 10-14
2021 NFL 5-6 2018-21 NFL 92-73-4
2021 NCAAF 5-8 2018-21 NCAAF 88-86-4
It was a rough week for me, but a record breaking weekend for the betting public. Vegas got smoked this weekend yet I dropped a lot of games!
There were a few college football games I just couldn’t pull the trigger on, and I don’t want to force it for picks.
The Memphis UCF over 64, kickoff Friday 7pm, was something that interested me. Ultimately, with the game being at UCF’s “Bounce House” I held off. The Bounce House on a Friday night is hard to play in, and while I expect a lot of points, I was worried the home crowd could create some back-breaking turnovers.
Then there is the KState Texas Tech matchup. I want to back KState, after they lost to three big time teams in OklaSt, Okla, and Iowa State, but I feel they might be beat up from that stretch.
Oklahoma State and Oregon are both ranked road dogs and I feel they go on to win but both home teams are hungry.
And Pitt is -3.5 vs a rough Clemson team that is 0-7 ats and I don’t know, they just feel due, even though I want to back Pitt in this matchup.
There is ONE though, that I am comfortable enough to recommend.
Tennessee +25 at Alabama o/u 68. Saturday 7pm
The play: Alabama -25
I really love this spot for Alabama to start off hot this weekend. There is a “rivalry” here that goes back since 1901, and since the 1950s, the winning team has victory cigars. Lets be real though, this has been one sided over the last what 10 years?
Tennessee is coming off an emotional (and embarrassing) loss to Ole Miss last week. I just don’t see how they can bounce back after that, against in my opinion, the second best team in the nation. Hooker, their quarterback, looks like he’ll play this weekend after getting banged up last weekend. He has looked decent this season, I’ll give him that, as he hasn’t thrown an interception since the Pitt game, on September 11. Still, This is a one-loss Alabama team, they cannot afford to take Tennessee lightly and Hooker will have to show out because Alabama has a very stout run defense.
Since this is still a “rivalry game” I don’t see how Alabama can come out flat .Bryce Young is in control, and gets better by the week. This is an opportunity to up his Heisman stock, as there is no front runner this season. I look for him to outclass the Tennessee team and get his three touchdowns in the first half. Tennessee’s defense is only averaging one takeaway per game, and vs an elite Bama team, that’s simply not enough.
Alabama 48 Tennessee 21
The same thing happened to me in the NFL. I feel I like some of these games, but which do I love? Look, Vegas had a horrible week last week which I mentioned, so I feel this can be a wacky week capping games.
I want to back the Dolphins especially if I can get +3 but it’s not a good spot. The Falcons are coming off a bye, and the Dolphins played in London last week and didn’t get the bye week.
The Bengals and Ravens are very slow teams. They have great quarterbacks but they take their time on offense. I expect a physical game and I can see this being like an older Ravens Steelers game. The total sits at 46.5, and if I could have caught the opening line of 48, I probably would have recommended it.
The Lions compete and are +16 (SIXTEEN in an NFL game!) at the Rams. The Lions should at worse backdoor cover this game, but the Rams blew out the Giants last week so I’ll stay away.
I look at the night game for my one game I key in on.
Colts +4 at Niners o/u 44. Sunday 8:15pm
The play: Colts +4
We are going to have ugly weather in the San Francisco area Sunday night. In a domed setting, I would rather Jimmy G over Carson Wentz, but in rain and some good wind gusts, give me Wentz this weekend. I have no doubt that Coach Shanahan will scheme some things for Jimmy G, but with Wentz’s big arm, and his rollouts out of the pocket, I think the Colts will benefit from the bad weather. Running wise, San Francisco is a great team. Their zone run scheme gets them good chunks of yards and Eli Mitchell can fly. On the other side, this Colts run defense gets a nod as they should slow down the run. The advantage I like is Jon Taylor should have a big day vs the Niners defense. The Niners have not faced a team that will use the Colts physical approach, and I think they will wear down as the game goes on. The Colts are turning the ball over the third least in the NFL, and are the least penalized team. These factors, mixed with their strong run game, has me thinking the Colts get the upset.
Colts 21 Niners 20
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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