4-0 last weekend! Let’s do this thing!
Recap
Miami Virginia under 63 – HIT! Virginia 30 Miami 28
Wake Forest Louisville over 61.5 – HIT! Wake Forest 37 Louisville 34
Washington -1 at Atlanta – HIT! Washington 34 Atlanta 30
Chiefs -7 at Philadelphia – HIT! Chiefs 42 Eagles 30
2021 8-6
2021 NFL 4-2 2018-21 NFL 91-69-4
2021 NCAAF 4-4 2018-21 NCAAF 87-82-4
Oklahoma -3 vs Texas o/u 63.5. Kickoff Saturday 12:00pm
The play: Oklahoma -3
Trending wise, Texas would be the play. Texas has covered the last three spreads by an average of 20 points, and all three were wins. Oklahoma on the other hand, has won their last three, but is failing to cover at an average of 12 points. Both teams are winning, but while Texas is dominating, Oklahoma is just getting by.
I like this Oklahoma defense, specifically the rush defense. They will have their toughest battle against the nation’s best running back in Bijan Robinson. Oklahoma is only giving up 2.9 yards per carry, and just played Kansas State, West Virginia, and Nebraska. Those aren’t running juggernauts, but they are three teams that would like to establish the run. Robinson will break a long one, but the swarm of the Oklahoma defense has impressed me.
A big x-factor to me will be the experience of Oklahoma’s coach and quarterback. Lincoln Riley is 4-1 in the Red River Showdown, and while it’s only one game, Spencer Rattler shined in his 53-45 4ot game last season. New Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has impressed with his 4-1 start to the season, but this is his first season in the rivalry, and while he has been a successful OC, this is his first head coaching role since 2015. Casey Thompson will lead Texas in his first shot in the rivalry, and while he has averaged 9.3 yards per completion, he’s been fortunate playing some weaker defenses. The dual threat QB will come to play, but with Oklahoma’s experience, I lean them in this big time rivalry.
Oklahoma 34 Texas 28
TCU -2 at Texas Tech o/u 61. Kickoff Saturday 7:00pm
The play: Under 61
We should have a 90 degree kickoff with 20 mph winds at kickoff, ending at 80 degrees and 15 mph winds. Wind isn’t the only factor in an under, but it obviously is something to consider. The line on this game started at 63.5 and is now chilling at 61, so we see bettors are favoriting the under as well.
While TCU is a 45% passing team, they push the ball down the field. Max Duggan is completing 63% of his passes and pushing it 8.5 yards down the field on average. On Saturday, his deep ball will be all out of whack with these winds. The bigger concern for me is Texas Tech and backup quarterback Henry Colombi. Colombi saw soft coverage in his matchup vs Texas where they lost 70-35, and didn’t move the ball as well vs West Virginia last week. TCU’s defense is on par with West Virginia’s so I expect the QB to again not light up the scoreboard. Texas Tech doesnt have much of a run game to help the QB out either. So why not just TCU ML? I feel this TCU team is inconsistent and don’t want to back them on the road in conference play. This is also TCU’s first road game, as they had four straight home games. I look for both teams having to go off script, and not push the ball that far down the field.
Texas Tech 30 TCU 28
Jets +3 vs Falcons o/u 46. Kickoff Sunday 9:30am London game!
The play: Under 46
I see London I see France! Since 2017, there have been 11 London games, and eight of them have gone under 46! While the trip for both east coast teams is comparable to going to the West coast, i believe there is another element to it. It’s a 9:30am game (which west coast teams do sometimes coming East anyways) and it’s sort of a whole show. Look, these players are visiting London for a showcase game. I can’t imagine they just chill in their hotels as they wait for the game.
When we look at the teams, I like this under anyways. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have yet to really click, and frankly I don’t think they will all year. They don’t have much of a running game, and their star receiver Calvin Ridley is ruled out this weekend. Cordarelle Patterson is this teams best weapon!!
The Jets have a rookie QB, head coach, and offensive coordinator. How will they help Wilson in his first international game. I believe this will be a factor, as we see teams oddly not adjust to the travel. On top of that, the offense is a work in progress. Running back Michael Carter slowly gets more and more a role in the backfield, but his usage still isn’t enough for me. If the Falcons key in and double team Corey Davis, the Jets will have a hard time scoring. I actually think the Jets win this one in a grind-out.
Jets 21 Falcons 20
Niners +5 at Cardinals o/u 49.5. Kickoff Sunday 4:25pm
The play: Niners +5
Trey Lance szn! Let the games begin in San Francisco. While Jimmy G might start again when healthy, Kyle Shannahan can unleash his offense this week. The Niners aren’t just playing a football game, they are facing a divisional foe so it would be wise for them to release the whole package this weekend. The Cardinals have speed on this defense to match with the Niners, but this will still be one of their harder tests. Both Quarterbacks have great mobility, and I expect Trey Lance to move the chains with his feet on third downs. The Cardinals have been a great team, but have been very suspect vs the run, giving up 5.4 yards per carry!
The Cardinals are coming off of a huge win, winning by 17 in LA vs the Rams! I’m not saying this will be a “let down spot,” but that was a peak game. This team still has flaws in the redzone punching the ball in. The Niners defense should be able to clamp down and match the speed of Kyler to force a field goal or two. Lastly, this Niners defense is one of the best third down defenses in the league, with teams converting only 33.3%. I think the Cardinals win by a field goal, so I’ll take the 5.5 points rooting for the Niners.
Cardinals 27 Niners 24
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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