I’ve dropped four straight in NCAAF so some would say this is good “fade” material. I would say I was relying too much on the previous week’s performance, and it’s now time to get back to the basics. A lot goes into capping games. There’s feel and there’s stats. You can’t go off of just one, and you need a combo of both. I’ll need some more stats to back up my feel.
Let me give y’all a tip, that was given to me and I’m still trying to grasp it. When you’re looking for your own winners this week, look at the slate and write down your best ten or so plays, all out of gut and feel. Take that list and put it to the side. Now, make a separate list of all your research picks incorporating stats. Teamrankings.com really has so much to offer, but I’d love to hear from y’all what site you use. Now, with those two lists, compare them and see if you have some plays that are on both the lists. Those right there, those are the plays! Give it a try, and let me know if your gut, backed up with stats, cashes!
Recap
Appalchian State Marshall Under 59 – Miss. App St 31 Marshall 30
Missouri -2 at Boston College – Miss. Boston College 41 Missouri 34
Cowboys -4 vs Eagles – HIT! Cowboys 41 Eagles 21
2021 4-6
2021NFL 2-2 2018-21NFL 89-69-4
2021NCAAF 2-4 2018-21NCAAF 85-82-4
Virginia +6 at Miami o/u 63 Thursday 7:30pm
The play: Under 63
We’ll start with the probable weather in this one. We’re looking at 10 to 15 mph winds in the first half, and as the game goes on the wind should lessen up. Wind is a factor that affects Virginia more as they are a top10 pass-happy team to start this college football season. They aren’t dinking-and-dunking either, as they are getting an average of 8.9 yards per pass! These pops are nice, but Virginia has been extremely ineffective once they get in the redzone, scoring five out of eight times. If the weather stays true, Virginia should have a hard time moving the ball, and once they get into the redzone, they leave empty handed a good amount of times already.
Miami has been fairly inefficient as well in the redzone, but they did have to face Alabama already. Still, you’d think Miami would put up more points with D’Eriq King under center. When Miami faced Appalachian State two weeks ago, they had to kick four field goals to survive! Two inefficient gun-slinging offenses square up and with the added wind, i like this under! Lastly, these teams are bottom 25 in penalties, and penalty yards in college football. So I’m expecting field goals, turnovers, and penalties that kill drives. They will score, but it stays in the 50s.
Miami 31 Virginia 23
Louisville +7 at Wake Forest o/u 61.5 Saturday 12:30pm
The play: Over 61.5
We have Wake Forest a touchdown favorite here, and I can see why. Wake has been an explosive team, where they have been gashing teams with the run, and having efficient passes. They are running the ball 60% of the time for almost 200 yards a game! Louisville’s defensive weakness is their run D, as they give up a hair over 200 yards a game! Strength vs weakness, Wake will move the ball plenty on Saturday. Wake Forest over 34.5 points feels like an additional play, but the Korner doesn’t dive in to all of that. They have five touchdowns in them, especially when you think they can get a short-field one as they are the leading takeaway team on defense.
Louisville is a balanced offense, throwing and running for 50%, and they’ve impressed me the last few weeks. They don’t get chunk yardage plays, but they convert on third downs and they score when they are in the redzone. Quarterback Malik Cunningham has three passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns the last two games, and I expect this momentum to continue. He is very conservative with his throws, there is a lot of underneath and screens, so I don’t expect this Wake team to get more than one takeaway. As I mentioned earlier, they lead the nation averaging 3.3 takeaways!
Wake Forest 38 Louisville 28
Football Team -1 at Atlanta o/u 48 Sunday 1pm
The play: Football Team -1
Washington hasn’t been the team many expected them, as their defense has yet to have an A+ performance. But, there’s no better time to shine then when you’re facing Atlanta! Washington will need to establish the run better, as Antonio Gibson should be getting 20 touches a game, not 15. Atlanta got dismantled by the Eagles week 1, and it was mostly due to Philly running it down their throats. Taylor Heinike is a serviceable backup quarterback who should be able to move the ball, and Atlanta has yet to record an interception. But please Washington, run the rock! On the other side of the ball, Washington’s main problem has been stopping the run. Mike Davis and Cordarralle Patterson don’t exactly inject fear to opposing defenses, so Washington’s weakness should be nullified. Atlanta has only rushed for 83 yards per game, while Washington has given up 125 yards per game. Look for Washington’s “stout” defense to finally show up.
Washington 23 Atlanta 20
Chiefs -7 at Philadelphia o/u 54.5
The play: Chiefs -7
The Chiefs have dropped two in a row, and are in a division with two 3-0 teams and a 2-1 team. The Kansas City Chiefs are in last place in the AFC West after three weeks! Like Washington going to a bad Atlanta, I really like this spot for KC, going to a bad Philadelphia team. We saw last Monday night that Philly doesn’t have the firepower on defense to compete with an elite offense. Not only is KC completing 70% of their passes, but Philly is allowing a 70% completion percentage! It is a concern on the other side of the ball that Philly will attempt to run down KC’s throat like how Baltimore did. I just saw too many flaws in Hurts pushing the ball downfield vs the Cowboys last Monday night. The Chiefs don’t have a good defense, but they have a very opportunistic defense, and while Hurts hasn’t been turning the ball over often, I expect KC to take their gambles pick hunting. The Chiefs are 1-12-1 in their last 14 against the spread, and I expect them to get their first cover of 2021!
Chiefs 34 Eagles 23
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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