My grandfather was about 55 when he first started to golf. From the stories that were passed down, he was hooked after his first swing! And let me tell you, I hear he was a natural. Before he passed when I was 12, he taught me all he knew about the game of golf. I won’t lie, I liked the game, but I didn’t take the training and tips too seriously. I was fairly young, but I just didn’t buy-in to practice swings, the importance of a routine, and the pace of a swing. I wanted to step up to the driving range mat and just full send it! Obviously I regret this, but you live and learn, and even though I truly don’t have a good routine, and struggle swinging 90%, this is something in the back of my mind and I’m working on it!
Like anyone who lost a loved one, I didn’t feel like I got to say goodbye to my grandfather. I guess you can say my love for the game carries his name and it is my way of saying goodbye. Through decent communication skills, a good amount of patience, and an understanding of the game, I am able to offer tips to my beginner friends. Once they learn the basics like grip the swing plane, it isn’t too long till they are just as good as me! I also taught 10 year olds the game for three summers before I went to college. This helps as my goodbye, by teaching others what he taught me. Boy is it a beautiful game!
I’m not that good of a golfer. I break 100 regularly, but struggle with the wedges and the feel shots. I’ll tell you what I am good at when it comes to golf. That is playing Tiger Woods PGA Tour the video game! I had every game from Tiger 03 to the current one Rory McIlroy PGA Tour (Rory?!? This is basically the 2014 game). A few courses come to mind when I think Tiger Woods PGA Tour. There’s always St. Andrews, TPC Sawgrass is a classic, and I always always always loved playing at Pebble Beach. Who didn’t? It just seemed like the main course and a staple of the game. The scenic coastal course will be the host of this years U.S Open, and I am hyped as can be! I can already picture some holes like the 100-yard downhill hole 7, or the beautiful finishing par 5 with the tree right in the middle of the fairway!
I’ve prioritized some statistics for my picks this week. I really keyed in on the 125-150 yard approach, but did keep an eye on the 100-125 and 150-175 yard shots. I also took a look at sand saves, as there are plenty of bunkers at Pebble! I didn’t really need a long driver this weekend, but with this being a US Open, I kept an eye on driving accuracy to avoid the overgrown roughs. Below are four golfers broken in to three tiers that I think have a great shot at a top 10, and ultimately a chance at being crowned the 2019 US Open champion. Lets hope I have the formula this week!
Favorites
Dustin Johnson +750 to win +100 top10
Dustin Johnson in an alternate universe is doing Brooks Koepka things. Koepka finishes the deal, when DJ comes up short. He has 10 top 10’s in his last 17 majors, including 1 victory, but also includes a rough 2017 which is headlined by falling down the stairs before 2017 Masters. He also has some history at Pebble. When he was breaking on to the scene in 2010, DJ had a 3 stroke lead the last time the US Open was at Pebble. He then shot a +11 on Sunday … which is a collapse to remember. This is almost a trend for him, as his scoring seems to rise on the final day. The key for Dustin will be Sunday and if he can shoot even par or better, he’ll add to his runs of top 10 finishes.
I Love DJ this week, but then again he is the favorite for a reason. He hits it a mile, but he has plenty of finesse in his game. He’s arguably the world’s best sand player as he leads the tour this year in sand save percentage. He’s also a very good putter, especially from distance. DJ’s speed allows him to have countless tap-ins. These two stats should help him avoid the dreaded double bogies. Dustin usually starts strong and loses steam as the days go by. If he can build his lead, the sand saves could be the difference!
Mid-Tier
Justin Thomas +3000 to win +300 top10
Justin Thomas is my favorite play this week, and I’d like to think I am writing about the winner right now. The reason? He’s the best iron player on tour. Justin Thomas gives himself a chance from anywhere under 200 yards. He constantly is near the top for greens in regulation and also proximity to the hole. So why doesn’t JT win all the time? He’s an average to below average putter. This really is the only part of his game that is holding him back. In a weird mindset, the US Open is known for making their greens faster then usual. While the good putters should continue to putt well, I think the field will slightly struggle. One putts and birdies are key in winning any tournament, and I think JT will give himself a chance at many birdies. Will most of them drop? Probably not, but he should have as much if not more chances then most the field. He should have an advantage in being closer to the hole then most of the field as well. Backing a player who isn’t known for his putting is hard for me, but his game fits exactly what Pebble is asking this week.
Patrick Cantlay +1800 to win +175 top10
Now I have to admit, I don’t like the value right here. Cantlay is the sixth favorite to win it, but I feel he should be more around the +3000 range which would be 12th favorite I guess because he is surging and well, hes playing like a top five golfer. I also don’t like that Cantlay won two weeks ago at the Memorial. To win twice in a three week stretch is extremely rare. That being said, you can argue he’s been a top 3 golfer over the last two months. He finished 9th in the Masters and t3 for the PGA Championship. Man is hot this year! I like my chances on Cantlay finishing top 10, and think he can go top10 in all four majors this year.
Cantlay is comfortable off the tee. He hits it a decent distance and finds a fair amount of fairways. His combo of distance and accuracy makes him an efficient player with the driver. I am a little skeptical that Cantlay’s strength is his long irons, not short irons, and that might not be the key for Pebble. Cantlay balls out from like 175 yards out instead of 125 yards. He’s still good from 125 but he is money from 175! I like that Cantlay is a fighter. The man can scramble. If he misses a green, he’ll make it out of the deep rough and get a nice tap in for par. He was recently seen on his Instagram feed practicing around the green from rough that is approximately 12 inches deep! Finally, Cantlay gets better as the tournament goes on. He is statistically the best putter for the third round, and leads the tour in third round scoring average. He’s top 10 on Sunday as well. Cantlay will scratch and claw to another top 10!
Long Shots
Webb Simpson +4500 to win +450 top 10
Webb Simpson is a Major champion winning the 2012 US Open. He also finished t5 in this year’s Masters. He also tied for second at this past weeks Canadian Open. Counting the Masters, Simpson has recently finished t5, t16, t18, t29 and this weeks t2. Webb is playing good golf! At this price, I think he is one of the best long shot picks.
Lets talk his game. Webb is short off the tee. He is 156th out of 209 in driving distance. That’s okay for Pebble. In US Open standards, it’s a short course. He makes up for distance with stellar accuracy, as he’s 20th in driving accuracy this year on tour. Webb is actually 4th in scoring average this year. I would have never guessed this to be honest. He scores low because of the accuracy as I mentioned, being one of the best players out of the rough, and great sand play. Webb almost gets better if he’s in the rough versus the fairway. Pebble won’t have any average rough, it will be very thick, but at least he’s comfortable there. He also will get par saves from the sand. He’ll check it up close and nail that five-foot putt. Ice cold! Webb will need to make the weekend, and if he does, I will be fairly confident in him. He scores on the weekend. He needs to get to the weekend, but if he gets there, watch him rise up the leaderboard!
Guys who just missed my cut
Some Long Shots I think could make a run at a top 10 are Brandt Snedeker (+500), Billy Horschel (+650), Thomas Pieters (+1400), and Cameron Smith (+1400). I would lean more towards a top 20 from the selected group to be honest. I do like how they are golfing but don’t like it enough to place a bet. Snedeker plays well at Pebble Beach, Horschel isn’t good with the driver but has golfed well lately, Cameron Smith’s game fits the course, and Pieters always seems to float between 25th and 15th in the big tournaments. If any of you were on the fence with these long shots, I’d say back them up and get your name in the ring!
Conclusion
I am ultimately liking Justin Thomas to win his second major, and his first US Open. The wrist injury doesn’t worry me, since he had a good showing this past weekend at the Canadian Open. I think his game is made for Pebble Beach. I chose to pick Dustin Johnson over Koepka, Rory, Tiger, and the other favorites. This doesn’t mean I think Koepka wont be top 10, but I am more confident in DJ’s ability to get a top 10 this week. I think Cantlay is playing amazing golf and think he is a safe play. I don’t think his game matches perfectly with Pebble, but I will go with skill over fit here. Finally, Webb Simpson is playing too good of golf to have those odds. I will take my chances with the slow and steady golfer. Finally, another golf article that goes by, and another non backing of Tiger Woods. Tiger fans know, we went through hell over the last five years. I will forever root for him and wear red on Sunday’s. I don’t like to bet on Tiger, because I don’t know what tiger I am going to see. I hope and hope he is in it on Sunday, but he’s 43, had countless surgeries, and defines roller coaster golf. I don’t bet on Tiger, but you can bet I will try and watch all 72 (hopefully) of his holes this weekend! Good luck to all, and let me know who you are backing!
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
Leave a comment