Its March! As I’ve mentioned, this all began hanging at the Korner watching college basketball. The single elimination aspect of conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament really makes March special. For the smaller conferences, the teams only way to make the NCAA tournament is to win the conference tournament. The 1 seed is basically on equal ground as the 10 seed. Sure, depending on the conference the lower seed will host, and sometimes the top four seeds receive a bye in the tournament. But, when the ball is thrown up to start the game, its 0-0 and all of the regular season records are out of the door.
I will go through how I see all 32 conferences playing out. Conference tournaments are so wacky, that if I hit more than five right I will feel successful! For some conferences I go slightly more in depth, but for a conference like the Southland, some times you have to take a lucky educated guess!
Enjoy, and happy March! 🙂
**Published on March 4th, because the first of the conference tournaments begin**
Major Conferences
ACC: Will Zion play? If he plays will he be healthy? Dukes pace, with Zion running the break and also holding down the paint, is a disaster for Virginia, UNC and the rest of the ACC. I think they are both suited to knock off Duke if they match up, with Zion’s health in question. It is hard to argue that anyone is playing better than UNC right now. They are hitting their shots and playing great ball. Still, I like Virginia. They are so sound, and opposing teams need a perfect effort to beat them. They only have two loses, both to Duke, both with a healthy Zion. Nobody plays that pace like healthy Duke though, which is why I like the turnover prone, stingy defensive Virginia. Virginia doesn’t only play defense though. They are second in the ACC in field goal percentage, and first in three point percentage. Virginia is just sound, and rarely messes up. They have a point to prove after being the laughing stock losing to UMBC last season.
Virginia
Big 12: The disrespect of Kansas State this season has been pretty remarkable. They very well might outright win the Big 12, and yet nobody is talking about them. They are the Virginia of the Big 12, they play amazing team defense, have senior leadership and don’t turn the ball over. Their top five leading scorers consist of four seniors and one junior. Talk about experience! Dean Wade is super efficient shooting 50% from the field and 40% from three. A team I would also keep an eye on is Baylor, who KState beat Saturday 3/2. They are led by former Yale guard Makai Mason, who led #12 Yale over #5 Baylor in 2016. Still, this KState team is serious and seriously underrated.
Kansas State
Big East: I will be at the Garden for the Semifinals for the second year in a row! If Seton Hall or St. Johns starts to click again, they will be hard to beat behind that NYC crowd. I think Marquette can weather the storm though. Markus Howard is a scoring machine averaging 25.2 points per game. He is accompanied by the Hauser brothers, who are both 6foot9, and good shooters as well. The Big East is a guard driven league, but Marquette is full of forwards outside of Howard. While they aren’t the most physical group, their size will wear on people, and they will be hard to outscore. They will hopefully have a date with St. Johns in the finals, but the crowd will not be enough for an upset.
Marquette
Big Ten: Shoutout to Rutgers. They wont win the Big Ten, but after coming in last the past three seasons, they look to get a bye in the B1G tournament. I watched a lot of Rutgers games, and a lot of Big Ten games this season. While I feel it is a super deep conference, I don’t like its top end talent. Michigan and Michigan State, for some reason, don’t impress me as much as their ranking says. Purdue was my team last season to win it all but I worry they are too much of a one-man-show team with Carson Edwards doing too much. Even though I don’t like them, I do think it comes down to the two Michigan teams. Michigan State is without Langford, and Ward is hurt, but should be playing. It always seems like Michigan turns it up come tournament time, so give me Ignas Brazdeikis and Michigan!
Michigan
Pac-12: This should really be under Mid Major Conferences, because the Pac-12 is far from major this year. Washington was the best team come conference play. Out of conference though? Arizona State beat a ranked Mississippi State and Kansas, and lost to Nevada by six. When the lights shined the brightest, they came to play. They also beat Washington in their only meeting this season. Bobby Hurley’s team relies on high-energy guards, which fits his profile perfectly. Luguentz Dort isn’t the best shooter, but he always has the green light. He is only a Freshman, but his energy and passion could lead anyone to victory. I’ll take the inconsistent Arizona state, because now that the games matter, I think they will finally get their heads on straight.
Arizona State
SEC: The mid-tier of the SEC conference tailed off, as Tennessee, Kentucky and LSU separated itself. Tennessee has been very inconsistent as of late, yet they dismantled Kentucky on 3/2. Kentucky has a great make up. They have a sharpshooter in Tyler Herro, accompanied by a couple other shooters. They also have a star power forward in PJ Washington. Kentucky can score in multiple ways, and with the athletes they have can play great defense. I like Kentucky to make a run at it, despite the beat down that Tennessee just handed them. Tennessee needed that victory, as they were tailing as of late. It meant more to Tennessee, so I will excuse Kentucky from that performance.
Kentucky
Mid Major Conferences
America East: This 3-team race between Vermont, Stony Brook, and last years scarletts UMBC will be a fun one! Stony Brook had a great away record, and they beat George Washington, South Carolina and Rhode Island away. They are balanced and physical. I think them being a good road team will be a factor when they go to Vermont in the finals.
Stony Brook
American: The American conference has top ten ranked Houston. Houston finally lost a game at home to UCF on 3/2, where Houston previously won 36 straight. While Houston is the top dogs, this conference is full of tough defensive teams. I think UCF can make a run at it, thanks to Tacko Fall. The 7foot6 giant will alter shots in the paint, and force teams to shoot. When UCF recently played Houston, UCF held them to 11 points under their season average. Tacko cannot take full credit for this, but his presence helps. UCF has a hard final three games of the regular season playing Houston, Cinci and Temple, but this prepared them for a run!
UCF
A10: For the past four seasons, the A10 was a 3-bid league. This season looks different and could potentially be a 1-bid league if VCU wins it. I really like this Davidson team on a one game basis. They mainly use a 6-man rotation though, and personally, I don’t think that will cut it when they will have to play three consecutive days. Instead, I see a team like Dayton knocking them off, as they have on February 19. Dayton will get back to the dance thanks to their three point shooting, knocking off VCU, who also dances.
Dayton
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb sizzled out later in the season, but there is no doubt in my mind they come to play come conference tournament time. When they are clicking and hitting threes, I believe they are head and shoulders above every team in this conference, including Liberty who split with Lipscomb 1-1. Lipscomb has senior leadership. Their best three players are all seniors, and they have a junior point guard. Garrison Mathews will be the player of the year in the Atlantic Sun leading Lipscomb with 20 points per game. Lipscomb can compete with almost anyone on a given day. Early in the year they only lost by four at Louisville. Give me Lipscomb, and pencil them in to win their first game in the NCAA tournament.
Lipscomb
Big Sky: I like how Northern Colorado challenged themselves this season playing an impressive 16 road games going 11-5 Last year in the semifinals they lost to league winner and current #1 seed Montana 91-89. Jordan Davis, Northern Colorado’s senior guard is averaging 23.9 points per game this season. Look for him to be the x-factor in the revenge game. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, like he did in the regular season against Montana, I like their chances.
Northern Colorado
Big South: Campbell has Chris Clemons who is sixth all time in scoring for all of NCAA. The problem is, they are 5-7 away from home this year. Radford is 11-2 at home, and since they are the #1 seed they will be hosting this tournament. Radford recently lost at Campbell by two, but Campbell wont have the home crowd emotion they had on their senior night. Radford, who beat Notre Dame and Texas early in the season, punches their ticket to the dance for the second year in a row.
Radford
Big West: UC Irvine is currently on a 11 game winning streak, all in conference play. They have given up the 19th least points per game this season! Statistically, they have plenty of shooters, yet Irvine doesn’t light up the scoreboard. Their nine players that they play average between 6 and 12 points, so they are super balanced, with no strong or weak link. A team I would keep an eye on is Long Beach State. I’m not sure what happened, but they went on a 1-8 stretch in conference. They rebounded from that winning their next four, and head in to the tourney as hot as anyone. Still, This Irvine defense is serious.
UC Irvine
Colonial: Early in the year I was on the College of Charleston. They made the tournament last season as a 13 seed, and challenged Auburn in the first round. They had a rough stretch in January losing 4 out of 5, which turned me off. They rebounded from that nicely, but during that stretch, I noticed how good Hofstra is. Justin Wright-Foreman averages an outstanding 26.3 points per game, second most in the NCAA! He has a team around him also. Their problem is, all of their players are guards. It has led them to a #1 seed in the conference, but tournament games are different. Charleston is small too, but they have more athletes and taller swing-men. Charleston has two players who average 20 points a game, and to me this will be a key to success.
College of Charleston
C-USA: Old Dominion has won seven in a row in conference play, and earlier beat Syracuse in non-conference play. They are also receiving votes in the AP poll. Their top ten ranked defense has gotten them to be in consideration of being ranked. I really like Western Kentucky though. Their center averages a double-double and they have four scorers who average 10+ points. Western Kentucky was tabbed as the favorite to win the C-USA in the preseason, and they have yet to put it all together. We’ve seen flashes of it like when they beat Wisconsin though. Also keep an eye out for last years winners Marshall.
Western Kentucky
Horizon: Motor City Madness! The Wright State Raiders have a top two seed heading in to the conference tourney. Last season as a two seed they won it, and avoided top seeded Northern Kentucky. These two teams will be the top two seeds again. Wright State won its only match-up this season with Northern Kentucky. If these two match up in the finals like they should, I smell revenge.
Northern Kentucky
Ivy: Ivy Madness!!! I love that the Ivy now has a four team conference tournament. I also love that Patrick School alum, and Harvard superstar Bryce Aiken is tearing it up since he’s come back from injury. He averaged 26 points in February! Yale is no joke, they have five players who average 10+ points. Their only loses in conference play are against Harvard though. The most recent time these two squared off, Harvard won 88-86 on 2/23. Yale fizzled out at the end, and I believe them trimming their rotation down to seven players has something to do with that. To me, that doesn’t fly in tournament play.
Harvard
MAAC: Canisius is one of the most bizarre teams in the country. They went 5-8 at home and 9-5 on the road. I believe they underachieved in the regular season thus far. The beauty of that is, they have a clean slate heading in to tournament time. The conference isn’t also very good either; it’s actually probably the worst conference this season. Canisius has shooters, and the reason they are bad at home is because its too cold in Buffalo to get hot! Since everyone is away, I think its an advantage for them.
Canisius
MAC: Buffalo deserves the hype. We were introduced to them last season, when they reached the round of 32. They returned most of their team and are nationally ranked. The team to challenge them will be Bowling Green. Bowling Green beat Buffalo once this season, and they have a rematch on 3/8 in Buffalo. Bowling Green has three sharp shooters, and a double double forward. They don’t match up to Buffalo’s offense, but Bowling Green has the edge on the boards. Buffalo should be fine regardless of the outcome of the tournament, while Bowling Green will need to win the MAC to go dancing.
Bowling Green
MEAC: As I am set to publish this article on ¾, the top four teams of the MEAC are on a three game+ win streak. The conference is heating up just in time. Howard will finish 9-7 or 8-8 on the road, as they have one more game, at #1 seed Norfolk. I like looking at away records come conference tournament time because well, it’s usually road games! Howard is beginning to click, and the road warriors are in good position to punch their ticket.
Howard
MVC: Sister Jean told me that Loyola Chicago will go back to the dance. This team was strong last season, it wasn’t a fluke, but they haven’t found their stride yet. They challenged themselves with a difficult non-conference schedule, and lost most of their tests. Loyola heads in to the conference tournament hot, winning three of their last four. Jersey product, Marques Townes led the team in scoring in Loyola’s last five wins. As he goes, the team goes. I don’t expect them to make damage in the NCAA tournament, but I expect them to get there.
Loyola Chicago
Mountain West: Utah State upset Nevada on 3/2 and probably punched their ticket to the dance. They defeated Nevada, and after the game Nevada had a meltdown. They had to be escorted to the locker-room after they were allegedly taunted by Utah State fans. Enter thoughts of a revenge game. If these two meet up in the conference championship Nevada will come out guns blazing. A team that made the Elite Eight last season, Nevada has senior leadership. Many of us know about the Martin twins, and they are accompanied by Jordan Caroline. Them three average a combined 49 points and are all listed at 6foot7. They will will be hoping for this rematch, even though it’s the hardest conference opponent possible.
Nevada
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickenson is 7th in the NCAA in three point percentage. This group of sharp shooters will have a top 2 seed come tournament time thanks to their dominant offense. LIU Brooklyn has the conference-leading scorer though, and has won three games in a row. LIU Brooklyn won it last season as a #4 seed, and I like their chances as a #6 seed.
LIU Brooklyn
Ohio Valley: The OVC isn’t a two team race between Belmont and Murray State. It has four elite teams, and we cannot overlook Jacksonville State and Austin Peay. Ja Morant a top-5 pick, with a lot of Russell Westbrook in his game. Belmont is so well balanced, with size, shooting and multiple hoopers. Many college basketball fans want to see a rematch between Belmont and Murray State. Instead, I actually like Jacksonville State to come out of the OVC. Jax State is 3-0 against Belmont and Murray State. They play a lot slower compared to Murray State, and Belmont, and I believe that works in their favor. Also, selfishly, I’d rather see Morant win the NIT, going one and done in the big dance.
Jacksonville State
Patriot: Colgate has won eight games in a row on its way to a top two seed! Their surge has them tied with Bucknell in the conference. Bucknell has some impressive wins, they beat St. Bonna, Vermont and URI! They are inconsistent though and lost some head scratchers like to last seed Holy Cross. Bucknell has to put their thinking hats on, and play their normal game.
Bucknell
Southern: WOFFORD. Wofford are my darlings, I have tried to hype them up in the beginning of the year, and they rewarded me by going 18-0 in the conference. The Southern is a good conference this season. Wofford should be dancing no matter what. ETSU, UNCG and once ranked Furman will have to win to get in. When Wofford played one of the other top four schools they turned it on. Fletcher Magee is the college version of Steph Curry (who was also in the Southern at the time) and takes 11 threes a game. He has two other shooters with him, in Storm Murphy (what a name) and Nathan Hoover who play significant minutes. Wofford also has a scoring big man in Cameron Jackson that gives balance to this team. I honestly believe Wofford’s starting five can compete with almost anyone’s starting five in the nation. Wofford should role through the Southern tournament. If the match-ups fall their way, Wofford can legitimacy make a Final Four run and be this years Loyola Chicago. Wofford wont have the luxury on sneaking up on people, because if they win the Southern, they can very well be a #6 seed. LOVE ME SOME WOFFORD.
Wofford
Southland: Watch out for Lamar, who got hot to finish the year! Lamar is currently 18-12 and is on a seven game winning streak. They have a very low amount of three-pointers made through the season, but still put up 78 points per game. They also gave Sam Houston State their only conference loss this season! Look for Lamar, a #5 seed to pull off the upset.
Lamar
SWAC: The SWAC keeps their programs alive by playing the most road games in the NCAA. Some schools play 20 of their 30 on the road, and almost all of their non-conference games on the road. This is because Major Conference opponents will pay them to travel to their gym, for most likely an easier win. Its no surprise that the top two teams in the conference have two of the best away records in the SWAC. Prairie View is 7-12 and Texas Southern is 8-10. I am rolling with Texas Southern because they beat Baylor and Oregon (when ranked) on the road. They also beat Prairie View in their only match-up.
Texas Southern
Summit: Mike Daum of South Dakota State has been to the tournament for his first three seasons, all resulting in a first round loss. One of the best mid-major conference players in recent memory, Daum has one more chance. He averages 25 points and 11 rebounds, and deserves the national spotlight. It won’t be a cakewalk to win the conference tournament for four straight seasons, but it’s an added bonus that they will be having the conference tournament in their city. They split the series with the #2 and #3 seed, Omaha and Purdue-Fort Wayne already. I will trust senior leadership, and role with South Dakota State.
South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia State lacks size, even for a mid-major conference like the Sun Belt. Their guards have bounce though, and can jump with anyone. They also tested themselves in the non-conference, and I would say they passed! They beat tournament hopeful Alabama, at Alabama, beat ETSU who should be a high NIT seed, and lost to Kansas State only by 12. They try to get teams to get in a track meet with them, racing to 80 points. Georgia State has to watch out for Georgia Southern, who plays a more extreme style of “first to 80” basketball. Southern has more height and shooters, but tend to gas out late. For that reason I’m rolling with Georgia State!
Georgia State
WCC: If nobody knocks off Gonzaga, this will probably be a 1-bid conference. I personally will be rooting against Gonzaga, but they are the #1 team in the nation for a reason. I enjoyed watching San Francisco this season. Their point guard, Frankie Ferrari, plays 100 mph all game long! They have shooters around him and try and light up the scoreboard. Gonzaga might be too talented to knock off though, with their combination of size and skill. They are a legit national championship contender, in a league with NIT hopefuls.
Gonzaga
WAC: Grand Canyon has the BEST home court atmosphere in all of college basketball. Do yourself a favor and check them out on YouTube. But … this conference instead will have its games in Vegas, so no home court for GCU! Instead, #1 seed New Mexico State should be looked at as the clear favorite. NMSU is THIRTEEN deep. Yes, thirteen players have played in at least 20 of their 30 games. They play great defense as a team, and never let a tired player on the court. NMSU will suffocate teams on their way to the dance for the 8th time in the last 10 seasons.
New Mexico State
Thank you,
Goose
Kowal's Korner 
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